Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-039-041-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-092240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-199-092240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-029-049-057-069-085-087-101-111-117-135-092240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN HAYES Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 091955Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon in a moist and very unstable environment. A few supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds are expected across the watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Limon CO to 65 miles north of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1914 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1914 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of far northeast Missouri into far southeastern Iowa and central into northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091954Z - 092130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may occur with the stronger storms that manage to mature and sustain themselves. DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorms are developing along the eastern fringes of a primary confluence band and ahead of a surface cold front, where ample heating is underway. Surface temperatures are approaching 90 F in many places, and given low 70s F dewpoints, MLCAPE is exceeding 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Deep-layer forcing and shear are lagging well to the west of the free warm sector, prompting great uncertainty in the overall coverage and intensity of storms into question. Still, ample buoyancy in place will promote wet downburst and damaging gust potential with any storms that can become organized. Therefore, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, should storms become more abundant and organized. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40149316 42049083 42648908 42568789 42268752 41918749 41248785 40688854 40348936 40108990 39929064 39919186 40149316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1913 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1913 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...and far southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091853Z - 092130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the area this afternoon into the overnight. Large hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A watch is likely later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Southeasterly low-level flow has maintained dewpoints from the mid-50Fs to low 60Fs this afternoon across southeast Colorado, in the presence of strong diurnal mixing. The result is most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of the area. At the same time, modest westerly 500mb flow a top this southeasterly low-level flow has maintained deep-layer shear values between 30 and 45 knots. This has set the stage for one or more rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon into the overnight. Expectations are for thunderstorms to initiate within the next couple of hours in the vicinity of the Palmer Divide. There are a couple of different areas where initiation might occur first -- within the Denver cyclone or along the Palmer Divide itself where continued upslope flow is sufficient to overcome convective inhibition. Additional areas of convective initiation could occur across portions of the Nebraska panhandle where convergence is increasing along a residual low-level boundary. The overall wind field will be supportive of discrete convective modes, including supercells, capable of all hazards, although high LCLs may limit the tornado potential somewhat. Additional thunderstorms will be possible later this evening into the overnight across the higher terrain west of the initial convection as moist outflow boundaries move west into the mountains and large-scale ascent increases in response to an approaching short-wave trough. The main threat with these storms would be large hail and damaging winds. Given the possibility for multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms anticipated, one or more watches will likely be needed later today. ..Marsh/Hart.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38960506 39710477 40880364 41480236 41210180 40690124 40250073 39950055 38790042 37700066 37210280 37620395 38260476 38960506 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-039-041-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-092140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-199-092140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-029-049-057-069-085-087-101-111-117-135-092140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN HAYES Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-039-041-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-092140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-199-092140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-029-049-057-069-085-087-101-111-117-135-092140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN HAYES Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0581 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more