Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

MD 1915 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into adjacent portions of Nebraska and Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581... Valid 092230Z - 100030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 continues. SUMMARY...Upscale growth is anticipated in the next 2-3 hours across far northeast Colorado and adjacent portions of Nebraska and Kansas as storm interactions increase. This will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind potential. DISCUSSION...A mixture of left and right-split supercells continues across northeast CO with several reports of 1-2 inch hail and 50-60 mph gusts noted over the past couple of hours. This convective evolution is indicative of a kinematic environment characterized by elongated, nearly-straight hodographs. With no appreciable change in the flow fields anticipated in the next several hours, this mix of splitting cells should continue for the near-term. One consequence of the mixed storm motions will be a tendency for increased storm interactions in the coming hours that should result in upscale growth and consolidation of cold pools as convection migrates east into higher buoyancy. Additionally, a subtle low-level confluence band noted in surface observations and KGLD reflectivity data may act as a foci for storm development/propagation. As such, the expectation is for gradual upscale growth over the next 2-3 hours across far northeast CO into northwest KS and southwest NE (though some uncertainty remains regarding the most likely corridor of downstream propagation). The potential for strong to severe winds should increase as this occurs. Further south, a more isolated right-moving supercell near Limon, CO will likely maintain separation from the upscale growth to the north. Likewise, stronger capping and weaker forcing for ascent downstream should tend to limit additional development and help maintain storm isolated. Consequently, this cell will likely continue to pose a significant hail threat for the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39410406 39630384 40560296 40790282 40990247 41040212 41050153 40930111 40790087 40470075 40090075 39790098 39470128 39260169 39090218 38820305 38750349 38780381 38970398 39150408 39410406 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-039-041-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-092240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-199-092240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-029-049-057-069-085-087-101-111-117-135-092240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN HAYES Read more

MD 1915 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into adjacent portions of Nebraska and Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581... Valid 092230Z - 100030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 continues. SUMMARY...Upscale growth is anticipated in the next 2-3 hours across far northeast Colorado and adjacent portions of Nebraska and Kansas as storm interactions increase. This will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind potential. DISCUSSION...A mixture of left and right-split supercells continues across northeast CO with several reports of 1-2 inch hail and 50-60 mph gusts noted over the past couple of hours. This convective evolution is indicative of a kinematic environment characterized by elongated, nearly-straight hodographs. With no appreciable change in the flow fields anticipated in the next several hours, this mix of splitting cells should continue for the near-term. One consequence of the mixed storm motions will be a tendency for increased storm interactions in the coming hours that should result in upscale growth and consolidation of cold pools as convection migrates east into higher buoyancy. Additionally, a subtle low-level confluence band noted in surface observations and KGLD reflectivity data may act as a foci for storm development/propagation. As such, the expectation is for gradual upscale growth over the next 2-3 hours across far northeast CO into northwest KS and southwest NE (though some uncertainty remains regarding the most likely corridor of downstream propagation). The potential for strong to severe winds should increase as this occurs. Further south, a more isolated right-moving supercell near Limon, CO will likely maintain separation from the upscale growth to the north. Likewise, stronger capping and weaker forcing for ascent downstream should tend to limit additional development and help maintain storm isolated. Consequently, this cell will likely continue to pose a significant hail threat for the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39410406 39630384 40560296 40790282 40990247 41040212 41050153 40930111 40790087 40470075 40090075 39790098 39470128 39260169 39090218 38820305 38750349 38780381 38970398 39150408 39410406 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 9 22:02:12 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts. Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions. Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with this outlook to cover this potential. Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more