Severe Storms

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...DDC...GLD...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-100440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE KSC027-029-051-055-063-065-071-075-083-089-093-101-105-117-123- 131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-157-161-163-165-167-171-183-195- 201-203-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD ELLIS FINNEY GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY HAMILTON HODGEMAN JEWELL KEARNY LANE LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA NESS NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT SMITH Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DEN TO 40 N LIC TO 35 NW IML TO 40 ENE AIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 ..MOORE..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-039-041-061-063-073-095-121-125-100240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN PHILLIPS WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-009-017-029-057-063-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-115-117- 135-145-149-171-100240- Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DEN TO 40 N LIC TO 35 NW IML TO 40 ENE AIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 ..MOORE..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-039-041-061-063-073-095-121-125-100240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN PHILLIPS WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-009-017-029-057-063-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-115-117- 135-145-149-171-100240- Read more

MD 1916 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR NORTHERN KANSAS TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1916 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...Northern Kansas to southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581... Valid 100035Z - 100230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing across northeast Colorado and far southwest Nebraska are expected to spread east through late evening. Additionally, new thunderstorm development is anticipated across north-central KS between 2-4 UTC and will likely pose a severe hail/wind threat. Downstream watch issuance is likely to address these concerns. DISCUSSION...Gradual upscale growth continues across far northeast CO and southwest NE as a mix of multi-cell clusters and embedded supercells continues to migrate east. Recent GOES IR imagery continues to show new/intense updraft development across this region as convection begins to move into richer low-level moisture and better MLCAPE. Moderate deep-layer shear remains over the region and will continue to promote storm intensification and organization - most likely into a mix of convective bands with embedded supercells - as storms spread east downstream into southern NE and northern KS through late evening. Further east across north-central KS, surface observations and recent upper-air analyses depict an effective warm frontal zone draped across the region. Shallow cumulus is noted in visible imagery along/north of this boundary, but appreciable deepening has not yet been observed - likely owing to residual capping sampled in the recent 00z TOP sounding. However, this RAOB also sampled extreme buoyancy (~4000 J/kg MLCAPE) that will likely be realized as the nocturnal jet strengthens between 2-4 UTC and bolsters isentropic ascent over the frontal zone. Zonal deep-layer flow along the boundary will likely promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and clusters with some an attendant threat for large hail and severe gusts. Downstream watch issuance is expected in the coming hours to address both of these scenarios. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 41239660 41159636 40899624 38969624 38769628 38629652 38609693 38610076 38620118 38730134 39000131 40820121 41120105 41230081 41250050 41239660 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 091955Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon in a moist and very unstable environment. A few supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds are expected across the watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Limon CO to 65 miles north of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0582 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0582 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more