Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 11 23:46:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1931 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1931 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112235Z - 120030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible into this evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing late this afternoon across east-central NM, with recent development noted farther east into the TX Panhandle and South Plains. Midlevel temperatures are seasonably cool, with steep lapse rates in the 700-500 mb layer (as noted on the 18Z AMA and ABQ soundings), and effective shear is somewhat enhanced by midlevel flow of 20-30 kt (especially where surface winds are backed). This could result in a few organized multicells or marginal supercells, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. Consolidating outflow could result in some clustering/upscale growth with time, which could support an increase in the severe-wind threat on a localized basis later this evening. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 36630522 36290234 35870042 34220001 33630026 33310089 33050209 32910408 32990510 34780571 36630522 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1930 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1930 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112138Z - 112345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across eastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota will see some intensification through the evening hours. Severe hail and damaging gusts are possible, but the overall threat should remain too limited to warrant watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the northern Plains both along a surface cold front traversing the Red River Valley of the North as well as across north-central ND within the post-frontal regime. Recent surface observations shows a narrow plume of higher theta-e air extending ahead of the front towards the Lake of the Woods area. This air mass is supporting MLCAPE values of around 1000-1500 J/kg, which is regionally the best convective air mass. Although 30-35 knot mid-level flow is overspreading the region, the combination of strong frontal forcing and weak off-boundary deep-layer shear components will favor upscale growth across far northwest MN over the next couple of hours. Large hail will be possible within initial cells, but an uptick in the potential for damaging/severe winds is expected through late evening. Marginal mid-level lapse rates and a fairy narrow warm sector should modulate the overall coverage/intensity of convection. Further west, cold temperatures aloft in proximity to an upper trough combined with ascent within the left exit region of a mid-level jet is supporting deep convection over north-central ND. Deep-layer shear appears to be adequate for some storm organization, so a few strong/severe storms, including transient/weak supercells, will be possible within the post-frontal regime. Cooler conditions will limit buoyancy values compared to areas further east, which should also act to hindering overall storm intensity, though a few instances of severe hail are possible. ..Moore/Hart.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46289930 46780006 47400064 47850105 48210124 48520119 48810090 48960049 49020021 49089987 49029597 49009552 49079528 49349515 49409502 49399481 49199464 49039454 48859426 48759395 48719372 48649333 48519320 48339320 48009334 46679433 46149515 45809585 45699616 45629660 45679750 45859850 46269913 46289930 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1929 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1929 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...central Oklahoma into northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112028Z - 112200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A slow moving cold front is advancing southeast across Oklahoma. Ahead of this front, temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s have yielded 2500 J/kg MLCAPE amid moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km per 12Z OUN RAOB). A remnant MCV can be seen in visible satellite imagery approaching central Oklahoma which will also likely be a focus for stronger storms this afternoon/evening. Very weak shear (~15 knots per TLX/INX VWP) will result in mostly unorganized convection, although a few multicell clusters are possible. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible, but no watch is anticipated. ..Bentley/Smith.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34689780 34639801 34639821 34869837 35149833 35379817 35769758 36289664 36679595 37029564 37289538 37359491 37229458 36789454 35929515 35349627 35039676 34789737 34689780 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more