Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across parts of central and eastern Arizona this afternoon, though more local concerns may emerge across portions of Oregon. ...Central to eastern Arizona... A mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected again this afternoon along the Mogollon Rim. An evening 00z sounding from ABQ sampled a very deep, dry boundary layer along with steep mid-level lapse rates and PWAT values near 0.5 inch. This dry, but weakly buoyant, thermodynamic environment on the northern fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture yielded a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the region yesterday. Similar conditions are likely today and should pose a fire weather concern over areas with receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorms are possible further east into western NM, but recent rainfall and improved fuels should mitigate the fire risk. ...Oregon... A weak mid-level wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature will migrate east through the day and overspread the Cascades through peak heating. The associated westerly mid-level flow will not be overly strong, but will still induce a downslope flow regime on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Compressional heating/drying, coupled with peak heating and full insolation, will promote RH reductions between 10-20%. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph appear most probable based on latest ensemble consensus, but gusts between 20-25 mph (especially wind-prone locations within the terrain) are possible. ..Moore.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across parts of central and eastern Arizona this afternoon, though more local concerns may emerge across portions of Oregon. ...Central to eastern Arizona... A mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected again this afternoon along the Mogollon Rim. An evening 00z sounding from ABQ sampled a very deep, dry boundary layer along with steep mid-level lapse rates and PWAT values near 0.5 inch. This dry, but weakly buoyant, thermodynamic environment on the northern fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture yielded a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the region yesterday. Similar conditions are likely today and should pose a fire weather concern over areas with receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorms are possible further east into western NM, but recent rainfall and improved fuels should mitigate the fire risk. ...Oregon... A weak mid-level wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature will migrate east through the day and overspread the Cascades through peak heating. The associated westerly mid-level flow will not be overly strong, but will still induce a downslope flow regime on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Compressional heating/drying, coupled with peak heating and full insolation, will promote RH reductions between 10-20%. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph appear most probable based on latest ensemble consensus, but gusts between 20-25 mph (especially wind-prone locations within the terrain) are possible. ..Moore.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across parts of central and eastern Arizona this afternoon, though more local concerns may emerge across portions of Oregon. ...Central to eastern Arizona... A mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected again this afternoon along the Mogollon Rim. An evening 00z sounding from ABQ sampled a very deep, dry boundary layer along with steep mid-level lapse rates and PWAT values near 0.5 inch. This dry, but weakly buoyant, thermodynamic environment on the northern fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture yielded a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the region yesterday. Similar conditions are likely today and should pose a fire weather concern over areas with receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorms are possible further east into western NM, but recent rainfall and improved fuels should mitigate the fire risk. ...Oregon... A weak mid-level wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature will migrate east through the day and overspread the Cascades through peak heating. The associated westerly mid-level flow will not be overly strong, but will still induce a downslope flow regime on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Compressional heating/drying, coupled with peak heating and full insolation, will promote RH reductions between 10-20%. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph appear most probable based on latest ensemble consensus, but gusts between 20-25 mph (especially wind-prone locations within the terrain) are possible. ..Moore.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across parts of central and eastern Arizona this afternoon, though more local concerns may emerge across portions of Oregon. ...Central to eastern Arizona... A mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected again this afternoon along the Mogollon Rim. An evening 00z sounding from ABQ sampled a very deep, dry boundary layer along with steep mid-level lapse rates and PWAT values near 0.5 inch. This dry, but weakly buoyant, thermodynamic environment on the northern fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture yielded a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the region yesterday. Similar conditions are likely today and should pose a fire weather concern over areas with receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorms are possible further east into western NM, but recent rainfall and improved fuels should mitigate the fire risk. ...Oregon... A weak mid-level wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature will migrate east through the day and overspread the Cascades through peak heating. The associated westerly mid-level flow will not be overly strong, but will still induce a downslope flow regime on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Compressional heating/drying, coupled with peak heating and full insolation, will promote RH reductions between 10-20%. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph appear most probable based on latest ensemble consensus, but gusts between 20-25 mph (especially wind-prone locations within the terrain) are possible. ..Moore.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be focused across parts of central and eastern Arizona this afternoon, though more local concerns may emerge across portions of Oregon. ...Central to eastern Arizona... A mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms is expected again this afternoon along the Mogollon Rim. An evening 00z sounding from ABQ sampled a very deep, dry boundary layer along with steep mid-level lapse rates and PWAT values near 0.5 inch. This dry, but weakly buoyant, thermodynamic environment on the northern fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture yielded a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the region yesterday. Similar conditions are likely today and should pose a fire weather concern over areas with receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorms are possible further east into western NM, but recent rainfall and improved fuels should mitigate the fire risk. ...Oregon... A weak mid-level wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature will migrate east through the day and overspread the Cascades through peak heating. The associated westerly mid-level flow will not be overly strong, but will still induce a downslope flow regime on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Compressional heating/drying, coupled with peak heating and full insolation, will promote RH reductions between 10-20%. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph appear most probable based on latest ensemble consensus, but gusts between 20-25 mph (especially wind-prone locations within the terrain) are possible. ..Moore.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening. ...Discussion... As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD. Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough. Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS. As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe activity withing the broader zone of convection. ..Jewell.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening. ...Discussion... As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD. Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough. Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS. As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe activity withing the broader zone of convection. ..Jewell.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening. ...Discussion... As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD. Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough. Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS. As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe activity withing the broader zone of convection. ..Jewell.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening. ...Discussion... As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD. Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough. Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS. As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe activity withing the broader zone of convection. ..Jewell.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening. ...Discussion... As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD. Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough. Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS. As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe activity withing the broader zone of convection. ..Jewell.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

MD 1934 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1934 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Far northern Missouri into southeast Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120257Z - 120500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A pair of supercells that has developed over southeast Iowa may pose a brief tornado and isolated hail risk over the next couple of hours. Additional supercell development is possible, but the overall severe threat is expected to remain limited spatially and temporally. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a pair of supercells has developed across southeast IA in the vicinity of a decaying MCV emanating out of northern MO. This activity is on the northern fringe of an axis of warm low-level conditions/weakly inhibited MLCAPE and is on the periphery of a swath of 30-35 knot mid-level winds associated with the MCV. Based on recent mesoanalysis estimates, this spatial window of favorable MLCAPE and adequate deep-layer wind shear appears relatively small with weaker CAPE/greater inhibition with northward extent and weaker shear with southward extent. However, these cells may linger within this window for the next couple of hours. While some low-level veering is noted via surface observations and recent upper-air analyses/forecast soundings, weak wind magnitudes are limiting overall SRH (only around 50-100 m2/s2 effective SRH). This casts uncertainty on the overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, the velocity signatures associated with the supercells suggest organized mesocyclones are present and some brief tornado and hail threat may manifest with these storms prior to stronger nocturnal low-level stabilization later this evening. An additional supercell or two may develop within a weak warm advection regime across far northern MO/southeast IA, but overall coverage of the severe threat is expected to be limited in the absence of stronger forcing for ascent and increasing inhibition with time. ..Moore/Hart.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41429072 41049083 40719118 40499162 40349207 40329254 40289289 40299324 40379339 40589347 40799342 41019317 41269275 41489233 41689160 41749118 41659083 41429072 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1932 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1932 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Central northern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120025Z - 120230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and severe hail may be possible as a cluster of thunderstorms spreads northeast into a buoyant air mass. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours a cluster of single-cell and multi-cell thunderstorms has evolved over southwest MO. Most cells have exhibited relatively short duration as a result of poor shear over the region (per the KSGF VWP). Because of this, it has been unclear whether an appreciable severe threat would emerge out of this cluster. However, over the past 30 minutes, MRMS vertical ice data and IR imagery suggests a few deeper cells are approaching severe limits, possibly due to the influence of slightly stronger mid-level winds associated with a passing MCV to the north/northeast. New convective development is anticipated on the north/northeastern fringe of a consolidating cold pool where MLCAPE remains fairly high downstream (2000-2500 J/kg). While this activity will remain on the periphery of the stronger mid-level wind field, deep-layer shear may be enough for a few more prolonged cells with some threat for hail and/or damaging downbursts over the next couple of hours before inhibition begins to substantially increase via nocturnal cooling. While a few instances of severe hail/wind are possible, the overall threat will remain too limited to warrant watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37709346 37919388 38299401 38679397 40409321 40519272 40369198 40039155 39649130 39229123 38869131 38579143 38339161 37709346 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1933 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1933 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle/South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120040Z - 120215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for hail and localized severe gusts may spread southeastward through the evening. DISCUSSION...A couple of longer-lived supercells have evolved out of vigorous convection near/north of Amarillo over the last 1-2 hours. The 00Z AMA sounding depicted relatively cool temperatures aloft (around -10 C at 500 mb), moderate buoyancy, and sufficient west-northwesterly midlevel flow for 30-40 kt of effective shear. Large hail and localized severe gusts will continue to pose a threat in the short-term with these cells. Outflow associated the ongoing cells and earlier convection has grown and is moving southeastward toward the southern TX Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A diffuse surface confluence zone with backed surface winds is located downstream of the ongoing storms and outflow, which could help to maintain a severe threat through the evening. Some modest upscale growth along the outflow cannot be ruled out, though generally weak low-level flow may limit this potential to some extent. Regardless, some uptick in severe-wind potential cannot be ruled out over the next 1-2 hours. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34850216 35210193 35380096 35240020 34829995 34270023 34040103 34440202 34850216 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains and the Upper Midwest this evening. ...01z Update... Mid-level flow is turning a bit more northwesterly across the southern High Plains early this evening as upper troughing shifts into the central Plains. Scattered robust convection is currently noted across eastern NM-southern TX-Panhandle into portions of OK. This activity may continue to expand in areal coverage as it propagates southeast into modest low-level southerly inflow, especially given the upper support with the slow-moving upper trough. Gusty winds or hail may continue to be noted with the strongest storms this evening. Farther north across the MN region, notable short-wave trough currently extends from MB into the eastern Dakotas. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across ND into western MN by 12/12z and this feature should continue to encourage convection along the surface front as it progresses across the Upper Midwest. Isolated hail/wind threat remain possible with the strongest storms. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains and the Upper Midwest this evening. ...01z Update... Mid-level flow is turning a bit more northwesterly across the southern High Plains early this evening as upper troughing shifts into the central Plains. Scattered robust convection is currently noted across eastern NM-southern TX-Panhandle into portions of OK. This activity may continue to expand in areal coverage as it propagates southeast into modest low-level southerly inflow, especially given the upper support with the slow-moving upper trough. Gusty winds or hail may continue to be noted with the strongest storms this evening. Farther north across the MN region, notable short-wave trough currently extends from MB into the eastern Dakotas. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across ND into western MN by 12/12z and this feature should continue to encourage convection along the surface front as it progresses across the Upper Midwest. Isolated hail/wind threat remain possible with the strongest storms. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2025 Read more