Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening/night across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana. ...Northern ND and far northeast MT... A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress across the Northwest on Wednesday into the northern High Plains and southern Canadian Prairies Wednesday night. This should be accompanied by an initially pronounced upper-level jet streak that should weaken late as it impinges on the northern Great Plains ridge. Stronger large-scale ascent may largely remain north of the international border until early morning Thursday. NCEP guidance suggests convection will be sparse before this timeframe with appreciable MLCIN. Non-NCEP guidance suggests potential for evening storms along the surface trough/developing front. Consensus indicates a confined low-probability severe hail/wind threat is warranted, with spatial details becoming likely to become clearer in later cycles. ...NC Outer Banks... 12Z guidance continues a westward trend to the track of Hurricane Erin. As NHC noted a larger-than-average surrounding wind field, low-probability tornado potential may overspread the Outer Banks as early as Wednesday evening with potential for outer convective band formation. However, adequate low-level SRH/hodograph curvature for a tornado risk seems likely to be displaced until Wednesday night. Any earlier arrival/farther westward track could warrant a level 1-MRGL risk highlight in later cycles. ...South-Central States... A somewhat similar setup to D2 will be displaced southward on D3 with scattered to numerous pulse-type storms expected during the afternoon to early evening. However, the convectively modified surface cold front should become more nebulous and mid-level northerlies will remain weak. In addition, the buoyancy plume should have variable pockets of weak to strong MLCAPE, especially in the wake of extensive convection on D2. Will defer to later cycles for possible microburst/localized damaging wind highlight(s). ..Grams.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening/night across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana. ...Northern ND and far northeast MT... A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress across the Northwest on Wednesday into the northern High Plains and southern Canadian Prairies Wednesday night. This should be accompanied by an initially pronounced upper-level jet streak that should weaken late as it impinges on the northern Great Plains ridge. Stronger large-scale ascent may largely remain north of the international border until early morning Thursday. NCEP guidance suggests convection will be sparse before this timeframe with appreciable MLCIN. Non-NCEP guidance suggests potential for evening storms along the surface trough/developing front. Consensus indicates a confined low-probability severe hail/wind threat is warranted, with spatial details becoming likely to become clearer in later cycles. ...NC Outer Banks... 12Z guidance continues a westward trend to the track of Hurricane Erin. As NHC noted a larger-than-average surrounding wind field, low-probability tornado potential may overspread the Outer Banks as early as Wednesday evening with potential for outer convective band formation. However, adequate low-level SRH/hodograph curvature for a tornado risk seems likely to be displaced until Wednesday night. Any earlier arrival/farther westward track could warrant a level 1-MRGL risk highlight in later cycles. ...South-Central States... A somewhat similar setup to D2 will be displaced southward on D3 with scattered to numerous pulse-type storms expected during the afternoon to early evening. However, the convectively modified surface cold front should become more nebulous and mid-level northerlies will remain weak. In addition, the buoyancy plume should have variable pockets of weak to strong MLCAPE, especially in the wake of extensive convection on D2. Will defer to later cycles for possible microburst/localized damaging wind highlight(s). ..Grams.. 08/18/2025 Read more

MD 1984 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
Mesoscale Discussion 1984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Areas affected...western/northern Arkansas into south-central Missouri. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181822Z - 181945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are starting to develop across the Ozarks from western Arkansas into south-central Missouri. These storms are forming within an environment with somewhat more favorable mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km per SGF/LZK 12Z RAOB) and hot temperatures near 100 degrees. Weak shear (10 knots or less through the entire troposphere) will limit storm organization. Despite the unorganized nature of the convection, strong heating/instability will support stronger storms capable of isolated microbursts and wind damage. A severe thunderstorm watch will not be issued for this sporadic/isolated threat. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 35169426 37149362 38269286 38389236 38289181 37929139 37059118 35479180 34579232 34109341 34109380 34359411 35169426 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW RFD TO 15 NNE RFD TO 20 ENE JVL TO 20 WNW MKE TO 20 NNW MKE TO 35 SSW MTW. ..BENTLEY..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-063-073-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-155- 195-197-201-182040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY KANE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO WIC059-079-089-101-127-133-182040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE WALWORTH WAUKESHA LMZ643-644-645-646-669-671-673-675-740-741-742-777-779-182040- Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RFD TO 10 NNE JVL TO 35 WNW MKE TO 15 ESE OSH. ..BENTLEY..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-063-073-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-155- 195-197-201-181940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY KANE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO WIC055-059-079-089-101-105-127-131-133-181940- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON KENOSHA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE ROCK WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA LMZ643-644-645-646-669-671-673-675-740-741-742-777-779-181940- Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The Elevated area was enlarged based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as south-southwest winds increase amid a very dry airmass ahead of a dry cold front. South-southwest sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% are expected from along/east of the southern Sierra through central/eastern Nevada and into southern/eastern Idaho and far southwest Montana. Some mid/upper-level clouds over eastern Nevada and into portions of Idaho and Montana could help mitigate fire weather conditions across these portions of the Elevated area. Additionally, while there were some areas of wetting rain in southern/eastern Idaho into southwest Montana over the weekend, holdovers are a concern as temperatures and winds increase with RH decreasing. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Localized damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest, Mid-South, and southern Great Plains on Tuesday afternoon to early evening. ...Midwest to Southern Great Plains... The upper-level pattern will be characterized by an anticyclone anchored over the Southwest and a low-amplitude trough/embedded MCVs from the Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley. While mid-level winds will be weak to the southwest of the Great Lakes, low-probability severe gust/damaging wind potential is evident Tuesday along a convectively modulated surface front expected to arc from the Lake Erie vicinity to the Lower OH Valley and trailing into KS/OK. This should be focused during the afternoon to early evening as scattered to numerous thunderstorms form along the front, as well as on pre-existing outflows from early-day convective remnants. Rather warm boundary-layer temperatures will again support a swath of large buoyancy, which should have embedded pockets of more muted MLCAPE where morning convection decays. 12Z HREF and ML guidance signals are supportive of sporadic strong to severe gusts in wet microbursts. With weak deep-layer shear, organized clustering appears unlikely. Thus, isolated damaging winds seem plausible until convection weakens around sunset. ..Grams.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Localized damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest, Mid-South, and southern Great Plains on Tuesday afternoon to early evening. ...Midwest to Southern Great Plains... The upper-level pattern will be characterized by an anticyclone anchored over the Southwest and a low-amplitude trough/embedded MCVs from the Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley. While mid-level winds will be weak to the southwest of the Great Lakes, low-probability severe gust/damaging wind potential is evident Tuesday along a convectively modulated surface front expected to arc from the Lake Erie vicinity to the Lower OH Valley and trailing into KS/OK. This should be focused during the afternoon to early evening as scattered to numerous thunderstorms form along the front, as well as on pre-existing outflows from early-day convective remnants. Rather warm boundary-layer temperatures will again support a swath of large buoyancy, which should have embedded pockets of more muted MLCAPE where morning convection decays. 12Z HREF and ML guidance signals are supportive of sporadic strong to severe gusts in wet microbursts. With weak deep-layer shear, organized clustering appears unlikely. Thus, isolated damaging winds seem plausible until convection weakens around sunset. ..Grams.. 08/18/2025 Read more