Severe Storms

WW 0600 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 600 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 600 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-031-033-041-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-102-103-105-107- 117-119-137-182340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CORSON CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS POTTER STANLEY SULLY ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 600 SEVERE TSTM SD 182145Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into Central South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will likely continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) through the late afternoon and early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms may eventually evolve and gradually move east-southeast into central South Dakota this evening. The primary threats with the potential thunderstorm cluster will be large hail and severe gusts (60-70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Rapid City SD to 30 miles east northeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0601 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 601 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-182340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-182340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-033-049-057-087-145-182340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1989 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1989 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Illinois and northwest Indiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 599... Valid 182234Z - 190000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 599 continues. SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms will remain capable of strong to occasionally severe gusts this evening. Watch extension or replacement is being considered, but the longevity of the threat is uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2230 UTC, several clusters of thunderstorms were ongoing over northern IL in proximity to WW599. An additional linear cluster has recently intensified across far eastern IA. A very unstable but modestly sheared environment remains in place ahead of these storms over IL and northwest IN. This could support a continued threat for damaging gusts for a couple hours this evening. Vertical shear is weaker with southward extent (less than 25 kt) suggesting a more transient damaging wind risk as storms continue this evening. Still, some severe risk is possible. With expiration currently set for 2300 UTC, WW599 may need to be locally extended or replaced. ..Lyons/Smith.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 40859089 41519035 41878886 41888755 41678688 41328679 40958706 40668762 40608845 40749056 40859089 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0601 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 601 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-182340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-182340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-033-049-057-087-145-182340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 601 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 182225Z - 190400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 601 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to develop and gradually move east across the Watch area through the evening. A couple of transient supercells may yield an isolated risk for large hail. Otherwise, scattered severe gusts associated with stronger thunderstorm cores and gusts on the leading edge of outflow will pose a risk for 60-75 mph winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of Imperial NE to 60 miles south southeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599...WW 600... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0600 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 600 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 600 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-031-033-041-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-102-103-105-107- 117-119-137-182340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CORSON CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS POTTER STANLEY SULLY ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 600 SEVERE TSTM SD 182145Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into Central South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will likely continue to pose a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) through the late afternoon and early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms may eventually evolve and gradually move east-southeast into central South Dakota this evening. The primary threats with the potential thunderstorm cluster will be large hail and severe gusts (60-70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Rapid City SD to 30 miles east northeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 599... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RFD TO 10 SE JVL TO 25 E JVL TO 25 SSW RAC TO 25 SE MMO. ..LYONS..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-037-043-063-073-085-089-093-099-103-111-141-155- 177-195-201-182340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RFD TO 10 SE JVL TO 25 E JVL TO 25 SSW RAC TO 25 SE MMO. ..LYONS..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-037-043-063-073-085-089-093-099-103-111-141-155- 177-195-201-182340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RFD TO 10 SE JVL TO 25 E JVL TO 25 SSW RAC TO 25 SE MMO. ..LYONS..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-037-043-063-073-085-089-093-099-103-111-141-155- 177-195-201-182340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RFD TO 10 SE JVL TO 25 E JVL TO 25 SSW RAC TO 25 SE MMO. ..LYONS..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-037-043-063-073-085-089-093-099-103-111-141-155- 177-195-201-182340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 599 SEVERE TSTM IL WI LM 181710Z - 182300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Southeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms is beginning to develop along an outflow boundary that extends from far south-central WI into west-central IL. The airmass ahead of this boundary is very moist and strongly unstable, supporting the potential for robust updrafts. Shear is modest, but outflow-dominant storm structures and water-loaded downdrafts suggest some strong to severe gusts will be possible throughout the afternoon. Backed low-level flow also supports a low-probability tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Milwaukee WI to 15 miles southwest of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 599 SEVERE TSTM IL WI LM 181710Z - 182300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Southeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms is beginning to develop along an outflow boundary that extends from far south-central WI into west-central IL. The airmass ahead of this boundary is very moist and strongly unstable, supporting the potential for robust updrafts. Shear is modest, but outflow-dominant storm structures and water-loaded downdrafts suggest some strong to severe gusts will be possible throughout the afternoon. Backed low-level flow also supports a low-probability tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Milwaukee WI to 15 miles southwest of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 18 22:15:13 UTC 2025.

MD 1988 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1988 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Areas affected...southeast Iowa...far northeast Missouri...and northwest Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182051Z - 182215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage is increasing across southeast Iowa and vicinity. A watch is possible late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Several storms have developed across southeast Iowa where 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE is present amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s. The DVN VWP shows around 30-40 knots of mid-level flow (the upper bounds which are significantly stronger than most of the guidance). If this is representative of the environment, more organized storms may be possible this afternoon into the early afternoon. Trends will be monitored across this region and a severe thunderstorm watch may need to be issued if a more organized severe weather threat appears imminent. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40849372 41569260 42059154 41989039 42038957 41638918 40928987 40199104 39929224 40849372 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1987 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599... FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1987 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Areas affected...northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 599... Valid 182038Z - 182215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 599 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat is increasing across northeast Illinois and southeast Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...The earlier line of storms mostly weakened/broke apart as it moved across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, additional storms have started to develop along the remnant outflow in north-central Illinois. This will likely bring a renewed severe weather focus this afternoon, especially if storms congeal into a eastward moving cluster. Strong instability amid upper 70s dewpoints will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for damaging wind gusts. In addition, mid-level flow has started to strengthen somewhat on the LOT VWP (~30 knots) which may aid in storm maintenance and this more organized threat. ..Bentley.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41568968 42278893 42778847 43278785 43268726 42808701 42218696 41758711 41358766 41128833 41118914 41218980 41568968 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1985 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1985 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Areas affected...Western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182015Z - 182215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may produce large hail and severe winds this afternoon. Storm coverage remains uncertain, but a watch is possible depending on convective trends. DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed and intensified in the Black Hills and is currently progressing southeastward. With 7.8 C/km mid-level lapse rate sampled by the observed 18Z RAP sounding and the storm moving into modestly greater shear, it is probable this storm will continue into the afternoon. Additional cumulus are deepening along a surface boundary in northern South Dakota. Additional storms may form within the next couple of hours. The main uncertainty will be the coverage of storms. This region is in the wake of a shortwave trough now in eastern North Dakota per water vapor imagery. That, along with rising mid-level heights, may mean storms remain isolated. Those that do develop will be capable of large hail and severe winds, especially with southern extent. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44020373 44520381 45590280 45460115 44790075 43730145 43520272 43720371 44020373 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1986 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FRONT RANGE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1986 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Areas affected...Front Range into southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182020Z - 182215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds will be possible as storms gradually intensify and move eastward this afternoon into evening. A watch may be needed later this afternoon. Convective trends will need to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage from the Palmer Divide into southeast Wyoming. Persistent weak warm advection has sustained elevated thunderstorms in southwest Nebraska. With weak mid-level ascent and the slowly building upper ridge, an increase in storms intensity will likely be gradual over the next few hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates along with 45 kts of effective shear were noted on the observed 18Z LBF sounding. As MLCIN erodes away from the terrain, some storms will intensify/organized and be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Guidance continues to suggest that storms will eventually congeal/cluster by early evening. Where and when this occurs is not entirely certain. With the persistent elevated convection, there may be a preference for clustering to occur south of that activity. That said, a watch is not anticipated in the short term, but one may become necessary for parts of the central High Plains as confidence in a greater corridor of severe risk increases later today. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38830455 39270495 40930488 41760474 42220426 42220417 42020301 41660266 41170249 39940260 39070273 38540316 38830455 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0600 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0600 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more