Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper-level ridge centered near the Four Corners will break down over the Northern Rockies Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. A dry cold front will stall in the northern Great Basin and across northern Wyoming by Day 4/Thursday with a cold front likely pushing south down the Plains and into the Southeast late this week and this weekend. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift west and build through the Northwest and northern Rockies late this week and through the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will move north and west into the Great Basin, central Rockies, and southern California, increasing chances of thunderstorms following. ...Day 3/Wednesday: central Great Basin into northern Rockies... Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible from eastern Nevada into far southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming on Day 3/Wednesday, including possibly overnight in eastern Idaho and northwest Wyoming. Mid-level moisture will increase ahead of the upper-level trough on the western/northern periphery of the upper high, but uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and location of high-based thunderstorms in a corridor from eastern Nevada/western Utah into southwest Montana and western Wyoming. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are also likely across the northern Great Basin with elevated fire weather conditions possible. ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 8/Monday... As the ridge builds over much of the West, monsoonal moisture will continue to push west and north increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of southern California, the Sierra, Great Basin, and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of the monsoonal moisture, especially regarding the arrival of deeper monsoonal moisture in portions of the southern/central Intermountain West. High-based, drier thunderstorms are likely along the periphery and leading edge of this monsoonal moisture, but too much uncertainty on timing and location precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, with low RH ahead of the monsoonal moisture. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 25 ENE JVL TO 20 N MKE TO 30 SSW MTW. ..BENTLEY..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-063-073-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-155- 195-197-201-182140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY KANE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO WIC059-101-127-182140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA RACINE WALWORTH LMZ645-646-671-673-675-740-741-742-777-779-182140- CW Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW RFD TO 15 SSE JVL TO 25 ENE JVL TO 20 N MKE TO 30 SSW MTW. ..BENTLEY..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-063-073-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-155- 195-197-201-182140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY KANE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO WIC059-101-127-182140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA RACINE WALWORTH LMZ645-646-671-673-675-740-741-742-777-779-182140- CW Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the current Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities across portions of southern Wisconsin, where the passage of an MCS has resulted in low-level stabilization. Otherwise, only minor changes was made to severe/thunder probabilities to reflect the latest guidance and observations. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Extensive outflow from last night's MCS currently extends from extreme southwest WI southwestward through eastern IA and north-central MO into eastern KS. This outflow has been moving quickly eastward/southeastward this morning, and this trend is expected to continue, although some slowing of its progression speed is possible over time. The downstream airmass across from southern WI and IL is characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level lapse rates are generally poor across the region, but heating of this very moist airmass will still result in strong to very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible along this outflow as it impinges on this moist and buoyant airmass. Current trends suggest the greatest severe potential will exist this afternoon across southern WI and northern IL, where slightly stronger mid-level flow, backed surface winds, and an east-west baroclinic zone exists. Recently issued MCD 1983 addresses the short-term severe potential for this area. ...Central High Plains into the northern/central Plains... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Additional isolated storms are possible farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. Much of this area is within a corridor of modest mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging covering the southern CONUS. Resulting modest shear may be enough for hail production with the initial development before these high-based storms trend towards outflow-dominant structures with time. These storms may persist into the evening, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts progressing into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies and strong diurnal heating are expected across central/southern MO and much of AR. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s despite strong mixing. These hot and humid conditions will result in strong buoyancy this afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be weak, yielding mostly disorganized multicells, but the strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the current Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities across portions of southern Wisconsin, where the passage of an MCS has resulted in low-level stabilization. Otherwise, only minor changes was made to severe/thunder probabilities to reflect the latest guidance and observations. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Extensive outflow from last night's MCS currently extends from extreme southwest WI southwestward through eastern IA and north-central MO into eastern KS. This outflow has been moving quickly eastward/southeastward this morning, and this trend is expected to continue, although some slowing of its progression speed is possible over time. The downstream airmass across from southern WI and IL is characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level lapse rates are generally poor across the region, but heating of this very moist airmass will still result in strong to very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible along this outflow as it impinges on this moist and buoyant airmass. Current trends suggest the greatest severe potential will exist this afternoon across southern WI and northern IL, where slightly stronger mid-level flow, backed surface winds, and an east-west baroclinic zone exists. Recently issued MCD 1983 addresses the short-term severe potential for this area. ...Central High Plains into the northern/central Plains... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Additional isolated storms are possible farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. Much of this area is within a corridor of modest mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging covering the southern CONUS. Resulting modest shear may be enough for hail production with the initial development before these high-based storms trend towards outflow-dominant structures with time. These storms may persist into the evening, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts progressing into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies and strong diurnal heating are expected across central/southern MO and much of AR. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s despite strong mixing. These hot and humid conditions will result in strong buoyancy this afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be weak, yielding mostly disorganized multicells, but the strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the current Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities across portions of southern Wisconsin, where the passage of an MCS has resulted in low-level stabilization. Otherwise, only minor changes was made to severe/thunder probabilities to reflect the latest guidance and observations. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Extensive outflow from last night's MCS currently extends from extreme southwest WI southwestward through eastern IA and north-central MO into eastern KS. This outflow has been moving quickly eastward/southeastward this morning, and this trend is expected to continue, although some slowing of its progression speed is possible over time. The downstream airmass across from southern WI and IL is characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level lapse rates are generally poor across the region, but heating of this very moist airmass will still result in strong to very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible along this outflow as it impinges on this moist and buoyant airmass. Current trends suggest the greatest severe potential will exist this afternoon across southern WI and northern IL, where slightly stronger mid-level flow, backed surface winds, and an east-west baroclinic zone exists. Recently issued MCD 1983 addresses the short-term severe potential for this area. ...Central High Plains into the northern/central Plains... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Additional isolated storms are possible farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. Much of this area is within a corridor of modest mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging covering the southern CONUS. Resulting modest shear may be enough for hail production with the initial development before these high-based storms trend towards outflow-dominant structures with time. These storms may persist into the evening, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts progressing into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies and strong diurnal heating are expected across central/southern MO and much of AR. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s despite strong mixing. These hot and humid conditions will result in strong buoyancy this afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be weak, yielding mostly disorganized multicells, but the strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the current Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities across portions of southern Wisconsin, where the passage of an MCS has resulted in low-level stabilization. Otherwise, only minor changes was made to severe/thunder probabilities to reflect the latest guidance and observations. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Extensive outflow from last night's MCS currently extends from extreme southwest WI southwestward through eastern IA and north-central MO into eastern KS. This outflow has been moving quickly eastward/southeastward this morning, and this trend is expected to continue, although some slowing of its progression speed is possible over time. The downstream airmass across from southern WI and IL is characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level lapse rates are generally poor across the region, but heating of this very moist airmass will still result in strong to very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible along this outflow as it impinges on this moist and buoyant airmass. Current trends suggest the greatest severe potential will exist this afternoon across southern WI and northern IL, where slightly stronger mid-level flow, backed surface winds, and an east-west baroclinic zone exists. Recently issued MCD 1983 addresses the short-term severe potential for this area. ...Central High Plains into the northern/central Plains... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Additional isolated storms are possible farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. Much of this area is within a corridor of modest mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging covering the southern CONUS. Resulting modest shear may be enough for hail production with the initial development before these high-based storms trend towards outflow-dominant structures with time. These storms may persist into the evening, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts progressing into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies and strong diurnal heating are expected across central/southern MO and much of AR. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s despite strong mixing. These hot and humid conditions will result in strong buoyancy this afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be weak, yielding mostly disorganized multicells, but the strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the current Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities across portions of southern Wisconsin, where the passage of an MCS has resulted in low-level stabilization. Otherwise, only minor changes was made to severe/thunder probabilities to reflect the latest guidance and observations. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Extensive outflow from last night's MCS currently extends from extreme southwest WI southwestward through eastern IA and north-central MO into eastern KS. This outflow has been moving quickly eastward/southeastward this morning, and this trend is expected to continue, although some slowing of its progression speed is possible over time. The downstream airmass across from southern WI and IL is characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level lapse rates are generally poor across the region, but heating of this very moist airmass will still result in strong to very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible along this outflow as it impinges on this moist and buoyant airmass. Current trends suggest the greatest severe potential will exist this afternoon across southern WI and northern IL, where slightly stronger mid-level flow, backed surface winds, and an east-west baroclinic zone exists. Recently issued MCD 1983 addresses the short-term severe potential for this area. ...Central High Plains into the northern/central Plains... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Additional isolated storms are possible farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. Much of this area is within a corridor of modest mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging covering the southern CONUS. Resulting modest shear may be enough for hail production with the initial development before these high-based storms trend towards outflow-dominant structures with time. These storms may persist into the evening, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts progressing into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies and strong diurnal heating are expected across central/southern MO and much of AR. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s despite strong mixing. These hot and humid conditions will result in strong buoyancy this afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be weak, yielding mostly disorganized multicells, but the strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the current Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities across portions of southern Wisconsin, where the passage of an MCS has resulted in low-level stabilization. Otherwise, only minor changes was made to severe/thunder probabilities to reflect the latest guidance and observations. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Extensive outflow from last night's MCS currently extends from extreme southwest WI southwestward through eastern IA and north-central MO into eastern KS. This outflow has been moving quickly eastward/southeastward this morning, and this trend is expected to continue, although some slowing of its progression speed is possible over time. The downstream airmass across from southern WI and IL is characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level lapse rates are generally poor across the region, but heating of this very moist airmass will still result in strong to very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible along this outflow as it impinges on this moist and buoyant airmass. Current trends suggest the greatest severe potential will exist this afternoon across southern WI and northern IL, where slightly stronger mid-level flow, backed surface winds, and an east-west baroclinic zone exists. Recently issued MCD 1983 addresses the short-term severe potential for this area. ...Central High Plains into the northern/central Plains... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Additional isolated storms are possible farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. Much of this area is within a corridor of modest mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging covering the southern CONUS. Resulting modest shear may be enough for hail production with the initial development before these high-based storms trend towards outflow-dominant structures with time. These storms may persist into the evening, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts progressing into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies and strong diurnal heating are expected across central/southern MO and much of AR. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s despite strong mixing. These hot and humid conditions will result in strong buoyancy this afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be weak, yielding mostly disorganized multicells, but the strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the current Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities across portions of southern Wisconsin, where the passage of an MCS has resulted in low-level stabilization. Otherwise, only minor changes was made to severe/thunder probabilities to reflect the latest guidance and observations. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Extensive outflow from last night's MCS currently extends from extreme southwest WI southwestward through eastern IA and north-central MO into eastern KS. This outflow has been moving quickly eastward/southeastward this morning, and this trend is expected to continue, although some slowing of its progression speed is possible over time. The downstream airmass across from southern WI and IL is characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mid-level lapse rates are generally poor across the region, but heating of this very moist airmass will still result in strong to very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible along this outflow as it impinges on this moist and buoyant airmass. Current trends suggest the greatest severe potential will exist this afternoon across southern WI and northern IL, where slightly stronger mid-level flow, backed surface winds, and an east-west baroclinic zone exists. Recently issued MCD 1983 addresses the short-term severe potential for this area. ...Central High Plains into the northern/central Plains... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Additional isolated storms are possible farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. Much of this area is within a corridor of modest mid-level flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging covering the southern CONUS. Resulting modest shear may be enough for hail production with the initial development before these high-based storms trend towards outflow-dominant structures with time. These storms may persist into the evening, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts progressing into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies and strong diurnal heating are expected across central/southern MO and much of AR. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s despite strong mixing. These hot and humid conditions will result in strong buoyancy this afternoon, with most guidance suggesting MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be weak, yielding mostly disorganized multicells, but the strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more