Severe Storms

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia Middle and Eastern Tennessee The Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which will be long-track and violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will exist over Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes also appear likely across middle and eastern Tennessee through tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia Middle and Eastern Tennessee The Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which will be long-track and violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will exist over Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes also appear likely across middle and eastern Tennessee through tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

MD 0200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...extreme southeast Mississippi into much of western and central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151619Z - 151745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon, including the potential for multiple intense, destructive tornadoes. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, including supercells, continue to increase in coverage and intensity over in MS with the rapid approach of a potent mid-level trough. A pronounced 500 mb speed max will glance the region to the west, promoting the maintenance of ongoing storms, while also contributing to adequate deep-layer ascent for the development of new supercells in warm-sector confluence bands. As this occurs, these supercells will mature in a moistening low-level airmass, with dewpoints in the mid 60s F, overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. MLCAPE should reach around 2000 J/kg amid 400+ m2/s2 effective SRH (driven by large, elongated/curved hodographs that are already evident via regional VADs). The anticipated parameter space will be highly supportive of tornadic supercells. The more discrete, dominant supercell structures will be capable of intense, destructive tornadoes, and violent tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A severe hail/wind threat should also accompany any robust, sustained thunderstorms. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be needed in the next hour to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 31468689 30738738 30418812 30488903 30678929 31118899 31568843 32138842 34508792 34888771 34938686 34598605 33918572 33108579 32258622 31468689 Read more

MD 0201 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45... FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...northern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 45... Valid 151620Z - 151745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to intense tornadoes are likely through mid-afternoon across northern Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Several mature, embedded supercells are starting to emerge out of the larger area of precipitation across northwest Mississippi with additional development possible from showers evident on radar across northeast Mississippi. One of these supercells, in Humphreys County, has had a persistent very strong mid-level mesocyclone and tops over 50kft. In addition, structural damage has been reported from this storm indicating the potential for a tornado. This supercell and any other mature supercells which develop are expected to persist east across the state through the early-to-mid afternoon. 0-1km SRH from the GWX VWP is around 350 m2/s2 and increasing. The instability is not as great across northern Mississippi where extensive cloud cover has muted daytime heating somewhat. However, there is still ample instability for maintenance of ongoing supercells. The combination of instability and shear has yielded STP values of 2 to 3 which should increase through the early afternoon as both shear and instability increase. The 15Z WoFs shows several moderate low-level rotation tracks across the northern part of the state over the next several hours which supports expectations based on the aforementioned observational data. Therefore, several strong to intense tornadoes are likely over the next 2 to 3 hours across northern Mississippi within PDS Tornado Watch 45. ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32759097 33689042 34588951 34788871 34708831 33618834 33048886 32669037 32759097 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more