SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC MD 204

4 months ago
MD 0204 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...South-central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 45... Valid 151751Z - 151845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues. SUMMARY...An intense to potentially violent tornado is ongoing across Waltha County, MS and is expected to continue northeast. DISCUSSION...WSR-88D Data out of KHDC shows a rapidly intensifying tornadic circulation with radar derived rotation of 60+ knots (briefly over 90 knots) and a tornado debris signature over 25kft. This suggests an intense to violent tornado is ongoing. This storm is located in the centroid of the maximum STP of 6-8 from SPC Mesoanalysis. This storm will likely be unimpeded as it moves northeast through the afternoon. Therefore, this tornado may persist for quite awhile at intense to violent intensity. ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31798943 31718926 31528926 31378945 31148984 31079028 31289032 31519015 31718995 31788975 31798943 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 47 Status Reports

4 months ago
WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203 ..THORNTON..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-051-055-061-081-087- 099-101-103-111-117-119-127-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-165-169- 175-177-181-185-187-189-151940- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CHEATHAM CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB DICKSON FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY HICKMAN JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN MACON MARSHALL MAURY MOORE OVERTON PERRY PICKETT PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 46 Status Reports

4 months ago
WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-013-015-021-023-025-033-035-037-043-047-049-051- 055-057-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-085-089-091-093-095- 099-101-103-105-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133- 151940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BUTLER CALHOUN CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COLBERT CONECUH COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON MSC039-041-111-131-153-151940- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 45 Status Reports

4 months ago
WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N LFT TO 15 SW HEZ TO 50 S GLH TO 20 SE GLH TO 20 NNE GLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202 ..THORNTON..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-033-037-047-063-077-091-093-095-103-105-117-121-125- 151940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-035- 037-043-049-051-053-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079- 081-083-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117- 121-123-127-129-135-139-141-145-147-149-155-157-159-161-163- 151940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALCORN AMITE Read more

SPC MD 203

4 months ago
MD 0203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151730Z - 151830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon. Damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes will be the main concerns. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is gradually progressing toward Middle TN from the west as semi-discrete storms attempt to approach from northeast MS. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints continue to advect northward, supporting gradual destabilization. MLCAPE may exceed 500 J/kg, and when considering the strong low-level shear in place (e.g. large, clockwise-curved hodographs with 500+ m2/s2 effective SRH per recent HTX and OHX VADs), QLCS circulations may develop and support a tornado threat. Any preceding supercells that can advance into middle TN in the aforementioned shear environment will have the best chance at producing tornadoes. Furthermore, severe wind gusts may also accompany the approaching QLCS. As such, a Tornado Watch will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 35068793 35948755 36518597 36418487 36058441 35578447 35268482 35098537 35028642 35068793 Read more

SPC MD 202

4 months ago
MD 0202 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTH AND EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern Louisiana into south and east-central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 45... Valid 151653Z - 151830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest threat for long-track intense to violent tornadoes through mid-afternoon is across portions of southern into east-central Mississippi. DISCUSSION...A line of supercells is developing within a confluence band across eastern Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s ahead of these supercells within the next 1 to 2 hours which should aid the maturity of multiple supercells out of this confluence band. SPC Mesoanalysis shows STP values across the area are already 4 to 6 and these values are expected to increase through the afternoon as shear and instability increase further. As these supercells mature into peak heating, they will pose a threat for long-track intense to violent tornadoes. Of particular interest are 2 consolidating supercells entering St. Helena Parish in eastern Louisiana and Lincoln County in Mississippi. These storms already have echo tops over 50kft and are near the greatest instability. The 16Z LIX RAOB acts as a proximity sounding to these storms with MLCAPE over 2200 J/kg and a STP of 6. In addition, temperatures have warmed a few degrees since it was launched. These storms, with broken cloudcover and instability downstream in a volatile kinematic environment, have the greatest potential to realize this environment over the next 1 to 3 hours. ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30489109 30749101 31449069 32049046 32819010 33088977 33388871 33018834 32378845 31818849 31288858 30838917 30529025 30489109 Read more

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

4 months ago
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia Middle and Eastern Tennessee The Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which will be long-track and violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will exist over Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes also appear likely across middle and eastern Tennessee through tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

4 months ago
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia Middle and Eastern Tennessee The Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which will be long-track and violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will exist over Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes also appear likely across middle and eastern Tennessee through tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

SPC MD 200

4 months ago
MD 0200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...extreme southeast Mississippi into much of western and central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151619Z - 151745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon, including the potential for multiple intense, destructive tornadoes. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, including supercells, continue to increase in coverage and intensity over in MS with the rapid approach of a potent mid-level trough. A pronounced 500 mb speed max will glance the region to the west, promoting the maintenance of ongoing storms, while also contributing to adequate deep-layer ascent for the development of new supercells in warm-sector confluence bands. As this occurs, these supercells will mature in a moistening low-level airmass, with dewpoints in the mid 60s F, overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. MLCAPE should reach around 2000 J/kg amid 400+ m2/s2 effective SRH (driven by large, elongated/curved hodographs that are already evident via regional VADs). The anticipated parameter space will be highly supportive of tornadic supercells. The more discrete, dominant supercell structures will be capable of intense, destructive tornadoes, and violent tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A severe hail/wind threat should also accompany any robust, sustained thunderstorms. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be needed in the next hour to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 31468689 30738738 30418812 30488903 30678929 31118899 31568843 32138842 34508792 34888771 34938686 34598605 33918572 33108579 32258622 31468689 Read more

SPC MD 201

4 months ago
MD 0201 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45... FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...northern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 45... Valid 151620Z - 151745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to intense tornadoes are likely through mid-afternoon across northern Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Several mature, embedded supercells are starting to emerge out of the larger area of precipitation across northwest Mississippi with additional development possible from showers evident on radar across northeast Mississippi. One of these supercells, in Humphreys County, has had a persistent very strong mid-level mesocyclone and tops over 50kft. In addition, structural damage has been reported from this storm indicating the potential for a tornado. This supercell and any other mature supercells which develop are expected to persist east across the state through the early-to-mid afternoon. 0-1km SRH from the GWX VWP is around 350 m2/s2 and increasing. The instability is not as great across northern Mississippi where extensive cloud cover has muted daytime heating somewhat. However, there is still ample instability for maintenance of ongoing supercells. The combination of instability and shear has yielded STP values of 2 to 3 which should increase through the early afternoon as both shear and instability increase. The 15Z WoFs shows several moderate low-level rotation tracks across the northern part of the state over the next several hours which supports expectations based on the aforementioned observational data. Therefore, several strong to intense tornadoes are likely over the next 2 to 3 hours across northern Mississippi within PDS Tornado Watch 45. ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32759097 33689042 34588951 34788871 34708831 33618834 33048886 32669037 32759097 Read more
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