Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..02/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-095- 103-107-117-123-139-147-152340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS UNION WOODRUFF LAC009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061- 065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-119-123-127- 152340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT Read more

WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LCH TO 30 ESE ESF TO 30 SSW GLH. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-029-033-035-037-047-063-065-077-091-093-095-103-105-107- 117-121-125-151840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON MADISON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-035- 037-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077- 079-081-083-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115- 117-121-123-125-127-129-135-139-141-145-147-149-155-157-159-161- 163-151840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALCORN AMITE ATTALA BENTON CALHOUN Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLU TO 15 ENE MEM. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-069-079-151840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES MSC093-107-151840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARSHALL PANOLA TNC069-071-109-151840- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDEMAN HARDIN MCNAIRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLU TO 15 ENE MEM. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-069-079-151840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES MSC093-107-151840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARSHALL PANOLA TNC069-071-109-151840- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDEMAN HARDIN MCNAIRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLU TO 15 ENE MEM. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-069-079-151840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES MSC093-107-151840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARSHALL PANOLA TNC069-071-109-151840- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDEMAN HARDIN MCNAIRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLU TO 15 ENE MEM. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-069-079-151840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES MSC093-107-151840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARSHALL PANOLA TNC069-071-109-151840- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDEMAN HARDIN MCNAIRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLU TO 15 ENE MEM. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-069-079-151840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES MSC093-107-151840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARSHALL PANOLA TNC069-071-109-151840- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDEMAN HARDIN MCNAIRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLU TO 15 ENE MEM. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-069-079-151840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES MSC093-107-151840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARSHALL PANOLA TNC069-071-109-151840- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDEMAN HARDIN MCNAIRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 44 TORNADO AR LA MS TN 151055Z - 151800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 44 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northern and central Louisiana Northern Mississippi Southwest Tennessee * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 555 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity in an extensive band from northern Louisiana to southeast Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southwest Tennessee through the morning. The storm environment will become more favorable for tornadic supercells with time, including the potential for a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes later this morning. Otherwise, large hail of 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph will also be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Natchitoches LA to 35 miles northeast of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...WW 43... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0199 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana and much of Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151507Z - 151700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be issued soon. A tornado outbreak with multiple intense to violent long-track tornadoes is likely. DISCUSSION...Morning observational data continues to support a likely tornado outbreak today across parts of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. 12Z RAOBS from LCH and LIX indicate rich low-level moisture featuring a mean mixing ratio of 14 to 15 beneath a steep EML with mid-level lapse rates of 8 to nearly 9 C/km. This thermodynamic profile, combined with broken cloud cover across Louisiana and southern Mississippi suggest substantial heating will occur and strong instability will be present for much of the day today. The EML will play a critical role in the storm mode today. Discrete supercells are anticipated given the EML which will suppress more widespread convection and also provide enough mid-level dry air for potentially multiple well-organized supercells in close proximity through the day. In addition, 12Z RAOB data along the Gulf Coast is consistent with the data observed the morning of historical tornado outbreaks across Mississippi and Alabama. Strong shear is already present across Louisiana and Mississippi this morning with effective shear 40 to 60 knots at the LIX/LCH/JAN 12Z RAOBs. However, shear will increase further through the morning as mid-level flow strengthens with the mid-level jet streak overspreading more of the warm sector and with secondary surface cyclogenesis in the mid-Mississippi Valley. Early evidence of this secondary low-pressure center has already been observed with a sub-995mb surface low analyzed northwest of Little Rock, Arkansas at 15Z. This surface low will continue to deepen and consolidate through the day which will keep flow backed across the warm sector and result in further strengthening of the already strong low-level jet. By mid-afternoon, a low-level jet of 65 to 70 knots is forecast with corresponding 0-1km SRH of 300 to 500 m2/s2. The presence of nearly pure streamwise vorticity in the lowest 1km will create an environment extremely conducive to the stretching of the ambient low-level vorticity. Confluence bands across Louisiana this morning likely represent the initial supercell initiation zone for the storms of greatest concern this afternoon. Multiple bands of supercells are possible. Once mature supercells develop in the environment south of the messier convection, there should be very little to interrupt their longevity through the afternoon. Given the aforementioned factors, many discrete supercells are expected in an environment which is extremely conducive to tornadic activity. Therefore, a tornado outbreak appears imminent with the potential for multiple, intense to violent long track tornadoes from mid-day through this evening across eastern Louisiana and much of Mississippi. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be issued soon to address this threat. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 33289093 33959023 34478950 34728889 34648832 34558813 33698827 31718846 31238894 30768995 30779104 31009190 31559220 32039197 32649162 33289093 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more