SPC MD 1544

2 months 1 week ago
MD 1544 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1544 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...Parts of north-central and northeast Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030047Z - 030215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is still being monitored for an increase in severe-gust/outflow potential. The need for a watch is still uncertain. DISCUSSION...A cluster of disorganized convection with transient/embedded deeper cores is evolving northeast of Lewistown MT, where a 36 kt gust was recently measured. As this activity (and additional storms farther east along a north/south-oriented wind shift) continue east-northeastward, very steep low-level lapse rates may promote sporadic severe outflow winds. However, the combination of modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the convection northeast of Lewistown casts uncertainty on the potential for an organized cluster to evolve. An elongated mid/upper-level hodograph sampled by the GGW VWP may favor some convective organization with the storms immediately east of Glasgow MT, though limited residence time in the weakly unstable air mass also limits confidence in severe coverage/potential. Overall, it is still unclear if the scenario will warrant a watch, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47100634 46840747 46900891 47240951 47670971 48130960 48700923 49080852 49080535 48580510 47620559 47100634 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

SPC MD 1543

2 months 2 weeks ago
MD 1543 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
Mesoscale Discussion 1543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Upper Midwest Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022250Z - 030015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are initiating along a weak low-level moisture gradient and wind shift extending southeastward from southeast MN into far southwest WI -- aided by a midlevel speed max approaching the area (evident in water-vapor imagery). An elongated/straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective shear) and sufficient surface-based instability along this corridor may promote brief/transient convective organization over the next few hours. Given an expected cellular mode amid the elongated/straight hodograph and modestly steep lapse rates, isolated instances of marginally severe hail will be possible (along with locally strong gusts). The overall threat is expected to remain too localized and transient for a watch. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43439360 43879412 44359423 44839385 44879299 44649231 43539014 42878994 42359041 42469139 43439360 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
469
ABPZ20 KNHC 022350
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs
NHC Webmaster

SPC MD 1542

2 months 2 weeks ago
MD 1542 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern/eastern Nevada...western Utah and far northwest Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022145Z - 022345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for sporadic severe gusts through this evening. Weak buoyancy and limited organization potential suggest a WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2135 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed scattered high-base showers and thunderstorms ongoing over much of the southern Great Basin. Aided by ascent from broad western US troughing and diurnal heating, additional convective development appears likely through this evening. Weak buoyancy above a deeply mixed boundary layer will support strong evaporation potential in thunderstorm downdrafts, with MLCL heights greater than 2000m AGL. In combination with weak vertical shear, a pulse multicellular mode is favored, with the stronger storm clusters capable of sporadic severe gusts. Given the limited potential for storm organization, a more widespread severe risk appears unlikely. Convection will gradually diminish in coverage this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. However, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely to continue overnight with occasional potential for strong downdrafts given the dry low-level air mass. A WW is unlikely given the limited nature of the threat. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 36681684 37901646 39401587 40131647 40761605 40701390 39751259 38481244 37771248 37081278 36341324 35791396 35671512 35761573 36681684 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC MD 1541

2 months 2 weeks ago
MD 1541 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...southern/central MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022042Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Erratic and isolated severe gusts will remain possible across a broad portion of southern to central Montana over the next few hours. Whether sufficient coverage/organization potential will exist for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have been gradually increasing across the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT. Despite meager buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear, one initial cell produced a measured severe gust of 64 kts at KDLN. This activity is expected to spread northward, mainly across the central portion of MT, into early evening where the downstream airmass is slightly more unstable. With 40-50 F surface temperature-dew point spreads, sporadic severe gusts are the expected hazard. Coverage of both convection and organizational potential is uncertain. Short-term guidance suggest severe gust potential may remain erratic with relatively disorganized convection. It is possible that a loosely organized cluster might evolve to the north-northeast at some point during the early evening, which would raise the potential of downstream watch issuance. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 48390825 47450806 45610827 45120967 44811229 45111259 46041309 46981319 47801197 48501044 48390825 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A negatively tilted short-wave trough and attendant mid-level wind maxima entering into the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday will increase fire weather concerns across much of the Great Basin. The stronger dry, southwest flow will scour out remaining monsoon moisture across the much of NV and southwest UT resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. In addition, widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough will affect portions of eastern Oregon and Northern Rockies region. ...Day 4-8/Saturday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough will lift into the Northern High Plains on Day 4/Saturday with a broad but reduced southwest flow pattern continuing to push remaining monsoon moisture and associated high terrain convection along and east of the Continental Divide by Day 5/Sunday, mitigating the threat of new lightning ignitions for much of the Intermountain West. A building mid-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will support climbing temperatures to above seasonal averages across much of the West starting early next week. This pattern could also usher in another round of monsoon moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin and southern California as early as Day 5/Sunday, although enough forecast uncertainty exists to preclude critical probabilities of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 1540

2 months 2 weeks ago
MD 1540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND THE UP/LP OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast Wisconsin and the UP/LP of Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022028Z - 022200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe winds gusts/hail possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a small cluster of cells over portions of northeast Wisconsin, and a few isolated cells over the LP of Michigan, traversing southeast. These storms initiated during the heating of the day amid a weakly capped environment. Persistent downstream heating, where dew point temperatures are in the low 60s F, is yielding MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and low level lapse rates near 9 C/km. The weak instability combined with marginal deep-layer shear (approaching 25-35 kt) should limit storm organization. That said, some potential exists for a localized damaging wind gust or severe hail with the strongest cells throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 45918727 45928808 45558936 45098997 44308987 43708952 43438906 43128768 42898593 42768480 42698390 42968291 43888303 44338350 45078356 45378498 45878694 45838684 45918727 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more