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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and along the WV/OH border through eastern KY. The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave, with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. ...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains... A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development. Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail. ...Central Appalachians into the Southeast... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast, along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front. Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms, although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing damaging winds are possible. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and along the WV/OH border through eastern KY. The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave, with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. ...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains... A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development. Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail. ...Central Appalachians into the Southeast... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast, along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front. Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms, although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing damaging winds are possible. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and along the WV/OH border through eastern KY. The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave, with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. ...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains... A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development. Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail. ...Central Appalachians into the Southeast... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast, along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front. Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms, although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing damaging winds are possible. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and along the WV/OH border through eastern KY. The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave, with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. ...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains... A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development. Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail. ...Central Appalachians into the Southeast... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast, along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front. Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms, although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing damaging winds are possible. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and along the WV/OH border through eastern KY. The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave, with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. ...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains... A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development. Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail. ...Central Appalachians into the Southeast... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast, along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front. Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms, although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing damaging winds are possible. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and along the WV/OH border through eastern KY. The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave, with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. ...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains... A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development. Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail. ...Central Appalachians into the Southeast... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast, along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front. Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms, although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing damaging winds are possible. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and along the WV/OH border through eastern KY. The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave, with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. ...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains... A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development. Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail. ...Central Appalachians into the Southeast... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast, along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front. Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms, although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing damaging winds are possible. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/01/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:21:56 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:40:56 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 059 FOPZ11 KNHC 011438 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 1 27(28) 57(85) 8(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 20N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 45(48) 15(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 25(25) 13(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 6( 7) 27(34) 8(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 477 WTPZ41 KNHC 011438 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie is still intensifying, with conventional satellite imagery showing a curved band pattern with cloud tops colder than -80C and a formative eye. In addition, recent microwave overpasses show an eye and eyewall present under the convective overcast. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are generally in the 75-85 kt range, and based on current trends the initial intensity is set at 85 kt. The initial motion is 305/9 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 3-4 days as Flossie moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. After that time, the cyclone or its remnants is forecast to turn westward as they become steered more by the low-level flow. The new forecast track, which generally splits the difference between the HCCA corrected consensus and the other consensus models, is a little north of the previous forecast through 72 h and a little south of the previous track after that time. The wind shear and moisture are forecast to be favorable for strengthening as long as Flossie remains over warm water. While the hurricane is starting to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, the intensity guidance suggests it will take about 24 h to reach water cold enough to stop intensification. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for another 24 h of strengthening. After that, Flossie is expected to rapidly weaken, with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h and a remnant low by 96 h. The forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance for the first 36 h and near the intensity consensus for the rest of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 17.4N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 132 WTPZ31 KNHC 011438 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS RAINBANDS AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 105.9W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 105.9 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Flossie should move away from southwestern Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and Flossie could become a major hurricane tonight or Wednesday morning. Steady to rapid weakening is expected starting late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, for the next several hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS RAINBANDS AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.4, -105.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 663 WTPZ21 KNHC 011437 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....105NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 1 14:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast and Southeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates an upper trough is moving east across the Great Lakes/lower OH Valley and other minor perturbations are located over the Mid South. The primary disturbance will overspread the Appalachians by mid-late evening. In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the southern Great Lakes into the lower OH Valley/Mid South will gradually progress east/southeast during the period. 12 UTC raob data from the OH Valley and Mid South eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region shows a very moist troposphere with limited 700-500 mb lapse rates (less than 5.5 deg C/km). Nonetheless, diurnal heating of the moist boundary layer will result in moderate buoyancy from portions of the Northeast southwestward through the Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeast. Models continue to indicate modest southwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic states will contribute to adequate shear, supporting some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east across PA/WV/VA/MD. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. Less organized but scattered to numerous storms are forecast farther southwest into portions of the southern Appalachians with a risk for damaging gusts with the stronger storms. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...Black Hills into the central High Plains... A weak mid-level disturbance is moving east across northern WY/southern MT towards the SD/NE vicinity later today. A weak lee trough will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon from near the Black Hills southward into northeast CO. Forecast soundings show around 30-kt effective shear in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate MLCAPE (1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the recent MPAS guidance indicates a few stronger thunderstorms will develop across western NE and perhaps into western SD. A couple of supercells with an attendant large-hail risk are possible, thereby prompting an increase in hail probabilities this outlook update. Some severe risk may linger into the mid-late evening coincident with a strengthening of a southerly LLJ centered over west-central NE before this activity dissipates. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast and Southeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates an upper trough is moving east across the Great Lakes/lower OH Valley and other minor perturbations are located over the Mid South. The primary disturbance will overspread the Appalachians by mid-late evening. In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the southern Great Lakes into the lower OH Valley/Mid South will gradually progress east/southeast during the period. 12 UTC raob data from the OH Valley and Mid South eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region shows a very moist troposphere with limited 700-500 mb lapse rates (less than 5.5 deg C/km). Nonetheless, diurnal heating of the moist boundary layer will result in moderate buoyancy from portions of the Northeast southwestward through the Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeast. Models continue to indicate modest southwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic states will contribute to adequate shear, supporting some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east across PA/WV/VA/MD. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. Less organized but scattered to numerous storms are forecast farther southwest into portions of the southern Appalachians with a risk for damaging gusts with the stronger storms. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...Black Hills into the central High Plains... A weak mid-level disturbance is moving east across northern WY/southern MT towards the SD/NE vicinity later today. A weak lee trough will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon from near the Black Hills southward into northeast CO. Forecast soundings show around 30-kt effective shear in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate MLCAPE (1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the recent MPAS guidance indicates a few stronger thunderstorms will develop across western NE and perhaps into western SD. A couple of supercells with an attendant large-hail risk are possible, thereby prompting an increase in hail probabilities this outlook update. Some severe risk may linger into the mid-late evening coincident with a strengthening of a southerly LLJ centered over west-central NE before this activity dissipates. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast and Southeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates an upper trough is moving east across the Great Lakes/lower OH Valley and other minor perturbations are located over the Mid South. The primary disturbance will overspread the Appalachians by mid-late evening. In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the southern Great Lakes into the lower OH Valley/Mid South will gradually progress east/southeast during the period. 12 UTC raob data from the OH Valley and Mid South eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region shows a very moist troposphere with limited 700-500 mb lapse rates (less than 5.5 deg C/km). Nonetheless, diurnal heating of the moist boundary layer will result in moderate buoyancy from portions of the Northeast southwestward through the Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeast. Models continue to indicate modest southwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic states will contribute to adequate shear, supporting some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east across PA/WV/VA/MD. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. Less organized but scattered to numerous storms are forecast farther southwest into portions of the southern Appalachians with a risk for damaging gusts with the stronger storms. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...Black Hills into the central High Plains... A weak mid-level disturbance is moving east across northern WY/southern MT towards the SD/NE vicinity later today. A weak lee trough will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon from near the Black Hills southward into northeast CO. Forecast soundings show around 30-kt effective shear in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate MLCAPE (1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the recent MPAS guidance indicates a few stronger thunderstorms will develop across western NE and perhaps into western SD. A couple of supercells with an attendant large-hail risk are possible, thereby prompting an increase in hail probabilities this outlook update. Some severe risk may linger into the mid-late evening coincident with a strengthening of a southerly LLJ centered over west-central NE before this activity dissipates. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast and Southeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates an upper trough is moving east across the Great Lakes/lower OH Valley and other minor perturbations are located over the Mid South. The primary disturbance will overspread the Appalachians by mid-late evening. In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the southern Great Lakes into the lower OH Valley/Mid South will gradually progress east/southeast during the period. 12 UTC raob data from the OH Valley and Mid South eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region shows a very moist troposphere with limited 700-500 mb lapse rates (less than 5.5 deg C/km). Nonetheless, diurnal heating of the moist boundary layer will result in moderate buoyancy from portions of the Northeast southwestward through the Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeast. Models continue to indicate modest southwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic states will contribute to adequate shear, supporting some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east across PA/WV/VA/MD. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. Less organized but scattered to numerous storms are forecast farther southwest into portions of the southern Appalachians with a risk for damaging gusts with the stronger storms. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...Black Hills into the central High Plains... A weak mid-level disturbance is moving east across northern WY/southern MT towards the SD/NE vicinity later today. A weak lee trough will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon from near the Black Hills southward into northeast CO. Forecast soundings show around 30-kt effective shear in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate MLCAPE (1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the recent MPAS guidance indicates a few stronger thunderstorms will develop across western NE and perhaps into western SD. A couple of supercells with an attendant large-hail risk are possible, thereby prompting an increase in hail probabilities this outlook update. Some severe risk may linger into the mid-late evening coincident with a strengthening of a southerly LLJ centered over west-central NE before this activity dissipates. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast and Southeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates an upper trough is moving east across the Great Lakes/lower OH Valley and other minor perturbations are located over the Mid South. The primary disturbance will overspread the Appalachians by mid-late evening. In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the southern Great Lakes into the lower OH Valley/Mid South will gradually progress east/southeast during the period. 12 UTC raob data from the OH Valley and Mid South eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region shows a very moist troposphere with limited 700-500 mb lapse rates (less than 5.5 deg C/km). Nonetheless, diurnal heating of the moist boundary layer will result in moderate buoyancy from portions of the Northeast southwestward through the Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeast. Models continue to indicate modest southwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic states will contribute to adequate shear, supporting some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east across PA/WV/VA/MD. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. Less organized but scattered to numerous storms are forecast farther southwest into portions of the southern Appalachians with a risk for damaging gusts with the stronger storms. Strong-severe convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening. ...Black Hills into the central High Plains... A weak mid-level disturbance is moving east across northern WY/southern MT towards the SD/NE vicinity later today. A weak lee trough will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon from near the Black Hills southward into northeast CO. Forecast soundings show around 30-kt effective shear in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate MLCAPE (1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the recent MPAS guidance indicates a few stronger thunderstorms will develop across western NE and perhaps into western SD. A couple of supercells with an attendant large-hail risk are possible, thereby prompting an increase in hail probabilities this outlook update. Some severe risk may linger into the mid-late evening coincident with a strengthening of a southerly LLJ centered over west-central NE before this activity dissipates. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/01/2025 Read more