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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Middle Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley. Severe thunderstorms should also develop across the central High Plains. ...Middle Atlantic/TN Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a mid-level vort max over central IL which appears to be partly responsible for organized deep convection over the lower OH Valley. This feature is forecast to progress east-southeast across the OH Valley and leading edge of affiliated MCS is expected to spread into WV shortly after sunrise. Considerable amount of clouds/precipitation should limit buoyancy across the central Appalachians while models favor stronger boundary-layer heating downstream across the Piedmont. For these reasons will lower severe probs across WV/western VA and orient ENH Risk east of the mountains where renewed thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary severe threat with scattered severe storms as they organize across the Piedmont. While initial convection may be cellular in nature, line segments capable of producing wind should mature across the southern Delmarva into southern VA. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected to develop along weak frontal zone as it sags southeast across KY/TN during the afternoon. This activity will evolve along southern fringe of modest northwesterly flow which should contribute to some organization. Strong storms may spread as far south as northern AL by late evening. ...Central High Plains... Weak mid-level height rises are forecast across the Great Basin Tuesday which should maintain modest 500mb flow across the central High Plains along the front side of southwestern U.S. anticyclone. While it's not evident that any meaningful disturbance will approach southern WY/NE, strong boundary-layer heating is forecast across eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20-21z. Early-evening CAMs aggressively develop convection across this region with supercell structures forecast early in the convective cycle. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" and this seems reasonable given the steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy. There is some concern that scattered supercells will merge into an MCS that should propagate southeast across western KS toward northwestern OK during the overnight hours. Wind threat should increase if an organized squall line emerges across this region. ...Upper MS Valley... Notable short-wave trough is beginning to dig southeast across the northern Plains. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature is forecast to spread across southeast MN/western WI by early afternoon. In response to the short wave, weak surface low will develop over southeast MN which should enhance low-level convergence for isolated thunderstorm development. 00z NAM suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted into this feature which will result in convective temperatures being breached by 20-21z. Will maintain 5% severe probs across this region due to the expected isolated nature of convection. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Middle Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley. Severe thunderstorms should also develop across the central High Plains. ...Middle Atlantic/TN Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a mid-level vort max over central IL which appears to be partly responsible for organized deep convection over the lower OH Valley. This feature is forecast to progress east-southeast across the OH Valley and leading edge of affiliated MCS is expected to spread into WV shortly after sunrise. Considerable amount of clouds/precipitation should limit buoyancy across the central Appalachians while models favor stronger boundary-layer heating downstream across the Piedmont. For these reasons will lower severe probs across WV/western VA and orient ENH Risk east of the mountains where renewed thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary severe threat with scattered severe storms as they organize across the Piedmont. While initial convection may be cellular in nature, line segments capable of producing wind should mature across the southern Delmarva into southern VA. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected to develop along weak frontal zone as it sags southeast across KY/TN during the afternoon. This activity will evolve along southern fringe of modest northwesterly flow which should contribute to some organization. Strong storms may spread as far south as northern AL by late evening. ...Central High Plains... Weak mid-level height rises are forecast across the Great Basin Tuesday which should maintain modest 500mb flow across the central High Plains along the front side of southwestern U.S. anticyclone. While it's not evident that any meaningful disturbance will approach southern WY/NE, strong boundary-layer heating is forecast across eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20-21z. Early-evening CAMs aggressively develop convection across this region with supercell structures forecast early in the convective cycle. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" and this seems reasonable given the steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy. There is some concern that scattered supercells will merge into an MCS that should propagate southeast across western KS toward northwestern OK during the overnight hours. Wind threat should increase if an organized squall line emerges across this region. ...Upper MS Valley... Notable short-wave trough is beginning to dig southeast across the northern Plains. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature is forecast to spread across southeast MN/western WI by early afternoon. In response to the short wave, weak surface low will develop over southeast MN which should enhance low-level convergence for isolated thunderstorm development. 00z NAM suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted into this feature which will result in convective temperatures being breached by 20-21z. Will maintain 5% severe probs across this region due to the expected isolated nature of convection. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Middle Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley. Severe thunderstorms should also develop across the central High Plains. ...Middle Atlantic/TN Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a mid-level vort max over central IL which appears to be partly responsible for organized deep convection over the lower OH Valley. This feature is forecast to progress east-southeast across the OH Valley and leading edge of affiliated MCS is expected to spread into WV shortly after sunrise. Considerable amount of clouds/precipitation should limit buoyancy across the central Appalachians while models favor stronger boundary-layer heating downstream across the Piedmont. For these reasons will lower severe probs across WV/western VA and orient ENH Risk east of the mountains where renewed thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary severe threat with scattered severe storms as they organize across the Piedmont. While initial convection may be cellular in nature, line segments capable of producing wind should mature across the southern Delmarva into southern VA. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected to develop along weak frontal zone as it sags southeast across KY/TN during the afternoon. This activity will evolve along southern fringe of modest northwesterly flow which should contribute to some organization. Strong storms may spread as far south as northern AL by late evening. ...Central High Plains... Weak mid-level height rises are forecast across the Great Basin Tuesday which should maintain modest 500mb flow across the central High Plains along the front side of southwestern U.S. anticyclone. While it's not evident that any meaningful disturbance will approach southern WY/NE, strong boundary-layer heating is forecast across eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20-21z. Early-evening CAMs aggressively develop convection across this region with supercell structures forecast early in the convective cycle. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" and this seems reasonable given the steep lapse rates and seasonally high buoyancy. There is some concern that scattered supercells will merge into an MCS that should propagate southeast across western KS toward northwestern OK during the overnight hours. Wind threat should increase if an organized squall line emerges across this region. ...Upper MS Valley... Notable short-wave trough is beginning to dig southeast across the northern Plains. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature is forecast to spread across southeast MN/western WI by early afternoon. In response to the short wave, weak surface low will develop over southeast MN which should enhance low-level convergence for isolated thunderstorm development. 00z NAM suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted into this feature which will result in convective temperatures being breached by 20-21z. Will maintain 5% severe probs across this region due to the expected isolated nature of convection. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/13/2019 Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW BMG TO 20 NW BMG TO 30 ENE BMG. ..KERR..08/13/19 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC013-027-055-071-083-093-101-105-119-153-130640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN DAVIESS GREENE JACKSON KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OWEN SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 575 TORNADO IL IN MO 130125Z - 130800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois Western and central Indiana Extreme eastern Missouri * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 825 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Increasingly focus band of convection has formed over central IL, along with isolated, potentially severe convection northwest of STL, all moving into a favorable environment for supercells and bow echoes. Activity should progress east-southeastward over the watch area, with all severe types possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Alton IL to 30 miles south southeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Edwards Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Wilson County commissioners enacted a 90-day burn ban as dry conditions continued. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index was in the 500 to 600 range. Statewide, 102 counties banned outdoor burning. My San Antonio.com (Texas), Aug. 12, 2019

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW STL TO 15 SSE SPI TO 10 SW DEC TO 20 NE MTO TO 20 NW HUF TO 30 SE IND. ..GOSS..08/13/19 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-021-023-025-029-033-035-045-049-051-079-101-117-119-121- 135-139-159-173-130540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE JASPER LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND SHELBY INC013-021-027-055-071-081-083-093-101-105-109-119-153-167- 130540- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS GREENE JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE MORGAN OWEN Read more

MD 1720 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 575... FOR SOUTEHAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...soutehast Illinois...southern Indiana...and into portions of western and central Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 575... Valid 130445Z - 130645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues to evolve primarily toward damaging winds across WW 575. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms evolving into a fairly well-defined bow echo, moving southeastward at around 25 kt. Some acceleration of the band of convection is noted over the past half hour, near the Illinois/Indiana border. A tight instability gradient is aligned north-south across middle Tennessee and west-central Kentucky, which should limit the longer-term eastward advance of the convection. Meanwhile however, risk for damaging winds will continue across WW 575, and may spread southeast of the watch over the next couple of hours. We will continue to monitor evolution of the convection, and any possible need for a downstream WW. ..Goss.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38868893 39208868 39258805 39628710 39548628 38558503 37718495 37318561 37428698 38018799 38868893 Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE COU TO 45 SSE UIN TO 25 SW SPI TO 10 SW DEC TO 20 NE MTO TO 20 S DNV TO 30 ESE DNV TO 20 ESE LAF. ..COOK..08/13/19 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083-101- 117-119-121-135-139-159-173-130440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND SHELBY INC011-013-021-027-055-063-071-081-083-093-097-101-105-107-109- 119-121-133-153-165-167-130440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS GREENE HENDRICKS Read more

MD 1719 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 575... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...central and southern Illinois...southern Indiana...and into parts of western Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 575... Valid 130300Z - 130500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms have become well-established across central Illinois and vicinity. Damaging winds will likely become the primary severe risk, though tornado risk continues across central Illinois. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of convection in a roughly west-to-east band across central Illinois, that continues to shows signs of gradual upscale growth. However, updrafts still remain sufficiently separated spatially to reveal pronounced supercell characteristics in radar imagery, including a few strongly rotating cells. One such cell -- which appears likely to have been producing a tornado over the past half hour -- has now moved into northern Shelby County Illinois. With time, expect upscale growth to continue, with storms likely evolving into an east-southeastward-moving storm complex, where damaging winds would likely become the primary severe risk. This could require southeastward watch issuance later this evening. In the mean time, risk for damaging winds and a tornado or two will continue in the short term. ..Goss.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38939110 39909117 39918909 39988755 39788621 38558503 37718495 37318561 37428698 38389011 38939110 Read more

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