Aggregator

...HENRIETTE MAINTAINS INTENSITY BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 the center of Henriette was located near 19.7, -112.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 121431 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.9N 116.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today over the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Damaging gusts are the primary risk but a few tornadoes are possible. ...IA/IL this afternoon/evening... A well-defined MCV is moving eastward over western IA this morning, per reflectivity mosaics and VWP observations of 50-60 kt midlevel flow at OAX/DMX. The associated MCS and low-level cold pool have weakened since 09z, though convective outflow appears to extend farther south into KS/MO than most model guidance. Thus, recovery of the boundary layer into IA is a primary concern for this afternoon. Assuming surface heating in cloud breaks by early-mid afternoon and erosion of the morning cold pool, boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will contribute to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg east of the surface low and south of the warm front in IA. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable by mid afternoon near the surface low, with storms expected to subsequently move/develop east-southeastward along the warm front into IL by this evening. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing tornadoes and damaging winds, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front, along the north edge of the unstable warm sector. Upscale growth into a cluster is expected by this evening from southeast IA/northeast MO into northwest and central IL, where damaging winds will become the more prominent threat into tonight. The MCV/cyclone will begin to move east of the surface warm sector late tonight, which should result in gradual weakening of the storms across IN. The northward extent and magnitude of the severe/tornado threat this afternoon will depend heavily on the degree of recovery from the ongoing/weakening MCS, which is still a bit uncertain. ...TX Panhandle this afternoon to southeast KS tonight... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle today, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...Maine this afternoon... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Dakotas this afternoon/evening... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today over the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Damaging gusts are the primary risk but a few tornadoes are possible. ...IA/IL this afternoon/evening... A well-defined MCV is moving eastward over western IA this morning, per reflectivity mosaics and VWP observations of 50-60 kt midlevel flow at OAX/DMX. The associated MCS and low-level cold pool have weakened since 09z, though convective outflow appears to extend farther south into KS/MO than most model guidance. Thus, recovery of the boundary layer into IA is a primary concern for this afternoon. Assuming surface heating in cloud breaks by early-mid afternoon and erosion of the morning cold pool, boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will contribute to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg east of the surface low and south of the warm front in IA. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable by mid afternoon near the surface low, with storms expected to subsequently move/develop east-southeastward along the warm front into IL by this evening. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing tornadoes and damaging winds, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front, along the north edge of the unstable warm sector. Upscale growth into a cluster is expected by this evening from southeast IA/northeast MO into northwest and central IL, where damaging winds will become the more prominent threat into tonight. The MCV/cyclone will begin to move east of the surface warm sector late tonight, which should result in gradual weakening of the storms across IN. The northward extent and magnitude of the severe/tornado threat this afternoon will depend heavily on the degree of recovery from the ongoing/weakening MCS, which is still a bit uncertain. ...TX Panhandle this afternoon to southeast KS tonight... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle today, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...Maine this afternoon... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Dakotas this afternoon/evening... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today over the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Damaging gusts are the primary risk but a few tornadoes are possible. ...IA/IL this afternoon/evening... A well-defined MCV is moving eastward over western IA this morning, per reflectivity mosaics and VWP observations of 50-60 kt midlevel flow at OAX/DMX. The associated MCS and low-level cold pool have weakened since 09z, though convective outflow appears to extend farther south into KS/MO than most model guidance. Thus, recovery of the boundary layer into IA is a primary concern for this afternoon. Assuming surface heating in cloud breaks by early-mid afternoon and erosion of the morning cold pool, boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will contribute to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg east of the surface low and south of the warm front in IA. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable by mid afternoon near the surface low, with storms expected to subsequently move/develop east-southeastward along the warm front into IL by this evening. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing tornadoes and damaging winds, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front, along the north edge of the unstable warm sector. Upscale growth into a cluster is expected by this evening from southeast IA/northeast MO into northwest and central IL, where damaging winds will become the more prominent threat into tonight. The MCV/cyclone will begin to move east of the surface warm sector late tonight, which should result in gradual weakening of the storms across IN. The northward extent and magnitude of the severe/tornado threat this afternoon will depend heavily on the degree of recovery from the ongoing/weakening MCS, which is still a bit uncertain. ...TX Panhandle this afternoon to southeast KS tonight... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle today, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...Maine this afternoon... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Dakotas this afternoon/evening... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today over the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Damaging gusts are the primary risk but a few tornadoes are possible. ...IA/IL this afternoon/evening... A well-defined MCV is moving eastward over western IA this morning, per reflectivity mosaics and VWP observations of 50-60 kt midlevel flow at OAX/DMX. The associated MCS and low-level cold pool have weakened since 09z, though convective outflow appears to extend farther south into KS/MO than most model guidance. Thus, recovery of the boundary layer into IA is a primary concern for this afternoon. Assuming surface heating in cloud breaks by early-mid afternoon and erosion of the morning cold pool, boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will contribute to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg east of the surface low and south of the warm front in IA. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable by mid afternoon near the surface low, with storms expected to subsequently move/develop east-southeastward along the warm front into IL by this evening. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing tornadoes and damaging winds, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front, along the north edge of the unstable warm sector. Upscale growth into a cluster is expected by this evening from southeast IA/northeast MO into northwest and central IL, where damaging winds will become the more prominent threat into tonight. The MCV/cyclone will begin to move east of the surface warm sector late tonight, which should result in gradual weakening of the storms across IN. The northward extent and magnitude of the severe/tornado threat this afternoon will depend heavily on the degree of recovery from the ongoing/weakening MCS, which is still a bit uncertain. ...TX Panhandle this afternoon to southeast KS tonight... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle today, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...Maine this afternoon... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Dakotas this afternoon/evening... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Weak, quasi-zonal mid-level flow will continue across the northern tier of the CONUS D2/Tuesday. Flow at the surface and aloft will be minimal across dry areas of the West outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. With the lack of major synoptic features traversing the West, fire weather conditions will be minimal. No highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Weak, quasi-zonal mid-level flow will continue across the northern tier of the CONUS D2/Tuesday. Flow at the surface and aloft will be minimal across dry areas of the West outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. With the lack of major synoptic features traversing the West, fire weather conditions will be minimal. No highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Weak, quasi-zonal mid-level flow will continue across the northern tier of the CONUS D2/Tuesday. Flow at the surface and aloft will be minimal across dry areas of the West outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. With the lack of major synoptic features traversing the West, fire weather conditions will be minimal. No highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal today. A mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will weaken and eject, leaving behind weaker and more zonally oriented mid-level flow across the CONUS. Mid-level flow will become minimal across dry areas of the western U.S. Outside of areas of locally elevated fire weather in Wyoming and vicinity, the quiet overall pattern indicates that no highlights will be needed for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal today. A mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will weaken and eject, leaving behind weaker and more zonally oriented mid-level flow across the CONUS. Mid-level flow will become minimal across dry areas of the western U.S. Outside of areas of locally elevated fire weather in Wyoming and vicinity, the quiet overall pattern indicates that no highlights will be needed for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Henriette, located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located just over
1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later
this week while the system moves west- northwestward at around 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 08:37:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 09:24:26 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120836 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Deep convection has continued to burst over the western portion of the cyclone overnight. Although the system is sheared with the center located near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, a couple of ASCAT passes have shown a very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation. These winds extend no more than about 15-20 n mi from the center, but based on these data the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Henriette becomes the eighth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin this season. The ASCAT data also assisted in locating the center this morning, and recent fixes show that Henriette continues to move west- northwestward or 295/12 kt. The tropical storm should move west-northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. As Henriette weakens, it is likely to turn westward within the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 36 hours, but has been adjusted southward at 48 hours to be closer to the various consensus aids. Henriette is not anticipated to strengthen much more. Although the system is predicted to remain over warm waters and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear today, nearby dry mid-level air is likely to prevent significant strengthening. By Tuesday morning, Henriette will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable airmass. This should lead to weakening, and the cyclone is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low within 48 hours, with dissipation occurring shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 19.5N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 ...HENRIETTE FORMS BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 110.9W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 110.9 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday, and Henriette is predicted to become a remnant low by Tuesday night. Henriette is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...HENRIETTE FORMS BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 the center of Henriette was located near 19.5, -110.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that a low-amplitude west northwesterly flow regime with a trough in the east will reside across the northern tier states days 4-5. Upper trough will become established over the Pacific Northwest through northern Rockies days 6-7. Days 4-5 - Though predictability remains low at this range, best chance for a few severe storms will be over the central through northern Plains within a northwesterly flow regime. Here a corridor of modest low-level moisture will reside beneath steep lapse rates resulting in moderate instability. Timing of any embedded shortwave troughs and their accompanying boundaries will be difficult, but potential exists for storms to develop in this regime and spread southeast through the Plains where vertical shear and instability will be sufficient for storm organization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that a low-amplitude west northwesterly flow regime with a trough in the east will reside across the northern tier states days 4-5. Upper trough will become established over the Pacific Northwest through northern Rockies days 6-7. Days 4-5 - Though predictability remains low at this range, best chance for a few severe storms will be over the central through northern Plains within a northwesterly flow regime. Here a corridor of modest low-level moisture will reside beneath steep lapse rates resulting in moderate instability. Timing of any embedded shortwave troughs and their accompanying boundaries will be difficult, but potential exists for storms to develop in this regime and spread southeast through the Plains where vertical shear and instability will be sufficient for storm organization. Read more