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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible. On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated. ...Northeast... Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2025 Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0485 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0485 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0485 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 484 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA RI CW 031730Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity should increase this afternoon across the region amid strengthening large-scale ascent and airmass destabilization. Moderate to strong buoyancy coupled with moderate vertical shear will support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Large hail will be the primary risk with the early-stage cellular development while strong winds will be more likely once storms transition towards a more linear mode. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Williamsport PA to 25 miles east of New Bedford MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1554 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF VERMONT AND UPSTATE NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...parts of Vermont and upstate New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032238Z - 040015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible this evening across parts of Vermont and upstate New York with storms ahead of a cold front. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Clear skies have allowed a corridor of instability to develop ahead of a cold front across parts of Vermont and upstate New York, and a few storms have developed along this front. VAD wind profiles from KCXX indicate somewhat weak deep-layer shear, leading to multicell clusters and line segments observed on radar. Regional RAP profiles indicate nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 2 km AGL. This, when combined with the modest low-level flow, may produce a threat for damaging gusts this evening, particularly with clusters of convection. However, the coverage is expected to be sparse, and the threat is expected to wane with the loss of sunlight. Therefore, a watch is not anticipated with this activity. ..Supinie/Guyer.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43817337 43407449 43337576 43677625 44057619 44217599 44477488 44937354 45017317 45067281 45027242 44637235 44247264 44047288 43817337 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ISP TO 20 N PVD TO 35 ESE BOS. ..SUPINIE..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC005-023-040040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL PLYMOUTH RIC001-003-005-009-040040- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT WASHINGTON ANZ234-235-236-237-332-040040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BUZZARDS BAY Read more

WW 484 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA RI CW 031730Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity should increase this afternoon across the region amid strengthening large-scale ascent and airmass destabilization. Moderate to strong buoyancy coupled with moderate vertical shear will support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Large hail will be the primary risk with the early-stage cellular development while strong winds will be more likely once storms transition towards a more linear mode. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Williamsport PA to 25 miles east of New Bedford MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

857
ABPZ20 KNHC 032327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CXY TO 35 SW AVP TO 15 N EWR TO 25 WNW BDR TO 15 S CON. ..WEINMAN..07/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-032340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC005-009-017-021-023-025-027-032340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL ESSEX MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NJC003-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-035-039-041-032340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 3 22:36:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1553 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western/central North Dakota...far eastern Montana...northeast Wyoming...and northwest South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032035Z - 032230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms possible this afternoon/evening, posing a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Clear skies throughout the afternoon have allowed surface temperatures to rise upper 80s and low 90s F amid a relatively moist low-level airmass, characterized by dew point temperatures in the low to mid 50s in northeast Wyoming/southeast Montana to the mid/upper 60s and a few 70 F obs across North Dakota. This is resulting in a west-east instability gradient ranging from 500-3000 J/kg. Visible satellite shows an area of deepening convection forming in northeast Wyoming, likely in association with an approaching mid-level trough. The expectation is for the aforementioned convection to mature and become more widespread, as forcing for ascent continues to overspread the region. Scattered storms are expected, though intensity may be somewhat limited in the short-term due to relatively weaker instability/shear in proximity. As storms move northeast with time, they should encounter greater instability while deep-layer shear increases with the approaching wave. Meanwhile, isolated storm development is possible across western/central North Dakota. Forecast soundings/obs indicate convective temperatures in the mid-90s F, which is supported by some areas of deepening convection across the state. Initial storms will likely be cellular in nature, posing a threat for large hail and perhaps a tornado. With time, storms by grow upscale, posing more of a threat for damaging winds. Given this severe storm potential, watch issuance is possible later this afternoon/evening for parts of the region. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 44100432 43730551 43880599 45110588 46680514 48290388 48800218 48950134 48240068 47060061 45960143 45420189 45110230 44100432 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more