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WW 618 SEVERE TSTM KS 250455Z - 251200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Kansas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1155 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will continue to organize/intensify and otherwise accelerate southeastward across central Kansas early in the overnight. As this occurs, damaging winds will continue to become an increasing concern from central into southern Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles northwest of Medicine Lodge KS to 65 miles east northeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 616...WW 617... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31040. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RSL TO 20 SSW RSL TO 30 SSW ICT TO 30 NNW PNC TO 40 NNE PNC TO 45 W CNU TO 30 NW CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855 ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-019-033-035-047-049-073-077-095-097-145-151-155-165- 185-191-251040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER KINGMAN KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO RUSH STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1855 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Areas affected...Portions of south-central/southeastern KS into northern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618... Valid 250940Z - 251045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 continues. SUMMARY...Storms across southeastern Kansas may continue to produce isolated strong/gusty winds, but the overall severe threat should continue to lessen into northeastern OK. Across south-central KS, at least an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts remains. Downstream watch issuance into parts of north-central Oklahoma is possible, but does not appear immediately likely. DISCUSSION...Leading line of storms across southeastern KS continues to show limited intensity per recent radar and infrared satellite imagery. This convection is moving southeastward and away from a south-southwesterly low-level jet over parts of the southern/central Plains. Given current radar trends, additional watch issuance into northeastern OK appears unlikely at this time. Across south-central KS, a string of supercells elevated above outflow from the storms now over southeastern KS are being supported by a 35-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet per KDDC VWP. These winds veer to northwesterly and strengthen to around 50-60 kt at mid/upper levels, which should continue to support updraft organization and an isolated threat for large hail. Some clustering of storms has also occurred across this region, with a wind gust of 42 kt measured at KPTT (Pratt KS) at 0915Z. Still, the outflow from earlier storms may tend to limit a greater wind threat in the short term. The overall severe threat into north-central OK remains unclear. Outflow from a separate, sub-severe cluster of storms that has moved from northwestern into central OK over the past few hours may tend to limit the wind threat with southward extent. Still, at least an isolated hail and strong/gusty wind risk may continue into a small portion of north-central OK where the airmass was not convectively overturned. While watch issuance is not immediately likely across north-central OK, trends will be closely monitored. ..Gleason.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38599951 38599890 37349786 37369741 37619661 38109621 38139593 37039559 36439628 36389753 36419868 36619930 37009953 38599951 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the upper pattern through much of next week. Current expectation is for the upper flow across the CONUS to trend more zonal on D4/Wednesday before a building ridge over the western CONUS slowly amplifies the pattern on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. Favorable low-level moisture is forecast to return across the central Plains ahead of an approaching cold front on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible along the front on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday but more run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is still needed before confidence in the location and coverage of severe thunderstorms is high enough to delineate any areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the upper pattern through much of next week. Current expectation is for the upper flow across the CONUS to trend more zonal on D4/Wednesday before a building ridge over the western CONUS slowly amplifies the pattern on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. Favorable low-level moisture is forecast to return across the central Plains ahead of an approaching cold front on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible along the front on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday but more run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is still needed before confidence in the location and coverage of severe thunderstorms is high enough to delineate any areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the upper pattern through much of next week. Current expectation is for the upper flow across the CONUS to trend more zonal on D4/Wednesday before a building ridge over the western CONUS slowly amplifies the pattern on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. Favorable low-level moisture is forecast to return across the central Plains ahead of an approaching cold front on D5/Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible along the front on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday but more run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is still needed before confidence in the location and coverage of severe thunderstorms is high enough to delineate any areas. Read more

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250839 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Ivo has been basically devoid of deep convection since about 0300 UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to becoming a remnant low. A pair of recent ASCAT passes indicate that the maximum winds have decreased, and the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, which makes Ivo a tropical depression. Ivo is currently over 24 degree C SSTs and in a dry and stable environment. Since these conditions are expected to become even more hostile during the next couple of days, Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate within a couple of days. The depression is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A slight turn to the north with a notable decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two while the shallow cyclone is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Even though Ivo is weakening, swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 24.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 08:39:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 09:31:12 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 117.0W ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 117.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through today and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 24.5, -117.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

MD 1854 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern KS and northern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618... Valid 250820Z - 250915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty wind threat should continue across parts of south-central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Downstream watch issuance in northern Oklahoma is appearing less likely. DISCUSSION...Ongoing bowing cluster of storms moving across south-central into southeastern KS has produced mainly sub-severe winds over the past 1-2 hours. A recent peak wind gust to 35 kt was observed at KICT (Wichita KS), which is in line with gradually diminishing velocities observed on radar imagery. Still, an isolated strong/gusty wind threat should persist with this convection as it continued to move southeastward through the pre-dawn hours. An embedded supercell has recently strengthened on the northern flank of this line across Morris County KS, which suggests an isolated threat for large hail may also continue in/near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618. Given recent observational trends, downstream watch issuance into northern OK is appearing less likely in the short term. To the west of the main line, a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet observed on the KDDC VWP is encouraging the development of another small cluster across parts of south-central KS. It remains unclear whether this convection will become sufficiently organized in the wake of outflow from the leading bow to pose a severe wind threat. But, a threat for isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may be increasing across western portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 in the next hour or so. ..Gleason.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38459951 38439891 38309854 37969835 37779773 37969715 38379696 38969696 38819624 37969595 36989598 36529611 36379659 36349760 36499871 37019952 38459951 Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RSL TO 20 SSW RSL TO 25 W HUT TO 5 SSW HUT TO 25 E HUT TO 40 SE SLN TO 30 ESE SLN TO 25 W MHK. ..GLEASON..08/25/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-017-019-033-035-041-047-049-073-077-079-095-097- 115-145-151-155-165-173-185-191-250840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY DICKINSON EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MARION PAWNEE PRATT RENO RUSH SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and middle MS Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southeastward through the middle MS Valley and into northwest TX. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly progressive, reaching the Lower Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and middle TN Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a MCS becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern TX. While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern OK/northern TX. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities are introduced with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and middle MS Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southeastward through the middle MS Valley and into northwest TX. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly progressive, reaching the Lower Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and middle TN Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a MCS becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern TX. While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern OK/northern TX. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities are introduced with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and middle MS Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southeastward through the middle MS Valley and into northwest TX. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly progressive, reaching the Lower Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and middle TN Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a MCS becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern TX. While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern OK/northern TX. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities are introduced with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHERN TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and middle MS Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper Great Lakes southeastward through the middle MS Valley and into northwest TX. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly progressive, reaching the Lower Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and middle TN Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a MCS becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern TX. While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern OK/northern TX. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities are introduced with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 08/25/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level cyclonic flow will shift eastward into the northern Plains/upper-Midwest during the D2/Monday period. At the surface, high pressure will build into parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with a thermally-induced pressure trough present across northern California. With mid-level winds waning across areas of dry fuels, as well as a generally weak surface pressure gradient across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS, fire weather concerns will be reduced below elevated levels in most locations. Locally elevated conditions will be most likely in portions of southern Wyoming and perhaps the Snake River Valley where some residual mid-level flow will exist. However, conditions are expected to be relatively brief and occur over areas with a general lack of fuels. With higher pressure over Montana and a pressure trough along the Oregon coast, portions of the Willamette Valley will see easterly downslope flow during the evening/overnight. RH values may dip to 30-35%. Based on available guidance, winds do not appear likely reach the sustained 15 mph threshold except on a localized basis. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level cyclonic flow will shift eastward into the northern Plains/upper-Midwest during the D2/Monday period. At the surface, high pressure will build into parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with a thermally-induced pressure trough present across northern California. With mid-level winds waning across areas of dry fuels, as well as a generally weak surface pressure gradient across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS, fire weather concerns will be reduced below elevated levels in most locations. Locally elevated conditions will be most likely in portions of southern Wyoming and perhaps the Snake River Valley where some residual mid-level flow will exist. However, conditions are expected to be relatively brief and occur over areas with a general lack of fuels. With higher pressure over Montana and a pressure trough along the Oregon coast, portions of the Willamette Valley will see easterly downslope flow during the evening/overnight. RH values may dip to 30-35%. Based on available guidance, winds do not appear likely reach the sustained 15 mph threshold except on a localized basis. ..Wendt.. 08/25/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more