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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE UPPER OHIO TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley, and over southwest Arizona. ...ArkLaMiss to upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from eastern OH into parts of KY/TN and MS/LA. A corridor of rich low-level moisture and strong CAPE lies along the front, where isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast. Winds aloft along this entire zone are relatively weak. This, combined with poor mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the overall severe threat quite limited. However, the potential exists for pulse and disorganized multicell storms to produce locally damaging wind gusts today across the MRGL risk area. This threat should diminish quickly after sunset. Refer to MCD #1296 for short-term details on parts of the area. ...AZ... Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will yield moderately unstable air mass over much of central and western AZ today. Sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to produce scattered high-based thunderstorms capable of localized gusty/damaging wind gusts. Weak winds aloft should limit convective organization. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/26/2022 Read more

MD 1296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...WEST KENTUCKY...AND FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Areas affected...southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...northwest Tennessee...west Kentucky...and far southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261508Z - 261715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will persist this morning. Marginally severe hail and wind will be possible in the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster continues to move east-southeast this morning across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Additional thunderstorms are developing ahead of this approaching thunderstorm cluster. As these thunderstorms move into or develop within an axis of greater instability stretching from central Arkansas northeast into southeast Missouri, episodic upticks in updraft intensity may occur. As such, thunderstorms may briefly be capable of marginally severe hail and wind, and recent MRMS trends suggest a thunderstorm across Wayne County, Missouri may be capable of hail around 1 inch. Weak deep-layer and effective-layer shear -- as indicated by the circular nature the developing anvils -- should limit the the severe potential to short temporal and small spatial scales, driven primarily by storm-scale processes. A watch is currently not anticipated. ..Marsh/Hart.. 06/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36909127 37829024 38348909 37828778 37008687 35478685 34528790 34328918 34639073 35299134 36909127 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Jun 2022 14:40:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Jun 2022 15:23:25 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 This morning's satellite presentation shows very little change in Celia's cloud pattern. However, the cloud tops associated with the deep convection are beginning to warm. The latest AMSR2 microwave revealed a symmetric cyclone with an eye-like feature in the low-frequency band. Therefore, the initial intensity is conservatively held at 45 kt and is supported by a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Celia should gradually weaken while it moves into a stable and dry surrounding atmosphere, and over cooler oceanic surface temperatures. Accordingly, Celia is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Monday and dissipate toward the end of the week, and this scenario is in agreement with the latest statistical and dynamical intensity guidance. Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/6 kt, just a little bit to the left of the previous advisory motion. The forecast track philosophy remains the same. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern North Pacific should steer the cyclone on a continued west-northwestward course through the forecast period. The official NHC forecast is based on the various tightly clustered consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 261433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 115W 34 49 23(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 115W 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 261433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 ...CELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 113.7W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 113.7 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...CELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 the center of Celia was located near 19.1, -113.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 261433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley. ...Mid South to the upper OH Valley this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough will move east-southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, while an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across the OH Valley and southward into the southern Plains. Convection has been ongoing overnight to the cool side of the boundary across the southern Plains, and just ahead of the front across southern IL. Outflow with the ongoing MO/IL storms will push the effective front southward into the Mid South this afternoon, providing a focus for renewed thunderstorm development. Farther northeast into the OH Valley, a possibly differential heating zone may provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon, modulated by how quickly morning clouds/convection diminish. Vertical shear will remain weak throughout the warm sector ahead of the cold front, and thermodynamic profiles will be a little more favorable for pulse-type downbursts with southwestward extent toward the Mid South. Overall, the threat for damaging winds should remain rather on the lower margins of an outlook area, and mainly be focused from mid-late afternoon. ...TX into the Southwest this afternoon/evening... Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the cold front this afternoon/evening from west central into north TX. Gusty outflow winds will be possible in the deeply mixed environment with hot surface temperatures, but the threat for severe outflow winds appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, the monsoon will persist across the southern Rockies, with relatively cool temperatures and widespread clouds across much of NM. On the western part of the monsoonal moisture plume, scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain from southeast AZ northwestward along the Mogollon Rim. Steering flow off the high terrain will be weak at best, though very isolated strong-severe outflow winds may occur with the strongest storms resulting from outflow collisions. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/26/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley. ...Mid South to the upper OH Valley this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough will move east-southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, while an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across the OH Valley and southward into the southern Plains. Convection has been ongoing overnight to the cool side of the boundary across the southern Plains, and just ahead of the front across southern IL. Outflow with the ongoing MO/IL storms will push the effective front southward into the Mid South this afternoon, providing a focus for renewed thunderstorm development. Farther northeast into the OH Valley, a possibly differential heating zone may provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon, modulated by how quickly morning clouds/convection diminish. Vertical shear will remain weak throughout the warm sector ahead of the cold front, and thermodynamic profiles will be a little more favorable for pulse-type downbursts with southwestward extent toward the Mid South. Overall, the threat for damaging winds should remain rather on the lower margins of an outlook area, and mainly be focused from mid-late afternoon. ...TX into the Southwest this afternoon/evening... Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the cold front this afternoon/evening from west central into north TX. Gusty outflow winds will be possible in the deeply mixed environment with hot surface temperatures, but the threat for severe outflow winds appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, the monsoon will persist across the southern Rockies, with relatively cool temperatures and widespread clouds across much of NM. On the western part of the monsoonal moisture plume, scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain from southeast AZ northwestward along the Mogollon Rim. Steering flow off the high terrain will be weak at best, though very isolated strong-severe outflow winds may occur with the strongest storms resulting from outflow collisions. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/26/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system thereafter as it moves generally westward-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

The lack of rain has kept watermelons from growing well in west central Louisiana. Fewer watermelons have been produced. KPLC (Lake Charles, La.), June 23, 2022

Drought in North Carolina’s Sandhills is limiting corn production. One farmer with land in Cumberland and Robeson counties expects to lose 50% of his corn to drought. Corn leaves turned brown before they were fully grown. Temperatures have been hot in recent weeks, and little to no rain has fallen. CBS17 (Raleigh, N.C.), June 21, 2022

Hay is not growing well in eastern Tennessee due to the lack of rain. WBIR (Knoxville, Tenn.), June 23, 2022

A dryland tobacco grower in Lenoir County fears losing his entire tobacco crop since little rain has fallen, and he prays for rain. He says that he needs two to three inches of rain to help the crop. NewsChannel 12 (New Bern, N.C.), June 21, 2022

The hot, dry June has parched crops in southern Indiana, and farmers are worried. The corn and bean crops are struggling, and some have already died. An insurance adjuster has zeroed out some corn in Posey County in extreme southwestern Indiana. Courier and Press (Evansville, Ind.), June 25, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minor adjustments. The IsoDryT area was shifted northwest toward the periphery of the monsoonal moisture plume evident on morning WV imagery. More isolated and higher-based storms should provide better potential for isolated dry strikes within receptive fuels. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 06/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern U.S. as a cold front sweeps southward, reinforced by surface high pressure. Overall quiescent surface fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., which should limit widespread significant wildfire growth. Some Elevated dry/breezy conditions may occur across portions of southwest Texas, as well as along the lee of the Diablo Range in central/southern California. However, the surface fire weather conditions are expected to either be too localized or occur over poorly receptive fuels, precluding Elevated highlights this outlook. Mid-level monsoonal moisture will continue to gradually overspread the Great Basin during this afternoon. By afternoon peak heating, at least isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop. Though storms should be slow moving, they are expected to traverse fuel beds that are critically dry on a spotty basis, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 25 16:47:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 25 16:47:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon/evening, focused in northern Illinois, southeast Iowa, and northeast Missouri. ...IA/IL/MO... A large upper ridge is centered over the lower MS Valley today, with the primary westerlies extending across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Water vapor imagery and model guidance hint at a subtle shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over northern KS. This feature will track eastward into IA this afternoon, with weak large scale forcing overspreading the mid MS Valley. Parts of IA/MO/IL were affected by overnight and morning convection, but that activity is moving out of the area and will allow strong afternoon heating/destabilization to occur. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over eastern IA/western IL and northeast MO. Thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon along a weak cold front over eastern IA/western IL and build westward into northeast MO. These storms will track southeastward along the instability gradient across parts of central IL and eastern MO during the evening before slowly weakening after dark. Wind fields are relatively weak, but strong buoyancy values and organization into a QLCS will result in a risk of strong/damaging wind gusts. ...KY/TN/AL/FL... Morning surface analysis shows an axis of low-mid 70s dewpoints from the FL Panhandle into much of AL, middle/east TN and eastern KY. Strong heating will aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low and mid level winds are relatively weak, but sufficient upper-level flow, strong CAPE, and favorable low-level lapse rates support a risk of pulse and multicell severe wind events. ..Hart/Jirak.. 06/25/2022 Read more