Aggregator

...AGATHA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun May 29 the center of Agatha was located near 14.1, -99.0 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

WW 286 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 291035Z - 291800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Central Minnesota West-Central Wisconsin * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 535 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster over southwest Minnesota is expected to continue northeastward into more of southern and central Minnesota and eventually west-central Wisconsin. Strong wind gusts and large to very large hail are possible with this storm cluster over the next several hours. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Mankato MN to 70 miles northeast of Rochester MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 285... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Mosier/Edwards Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts of 60 to 85 mph, hail over 2 inches in diameter, and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of Nebraska northeastward into southwestern and central Minnesota. ...Synopsis... The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this forecast period will be a substantial, currently negatively tilted synoptic trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the BC coastal vicinity southeastward over the inland Pacific Northwest, Great Basin and AZ. A vorticity lobe now located over southeastern OR is forecast to evolve into a closed 500-mb cyclone over southern ID in the next few hours, then move slowly southeastward toward southwestern WY through the remainder of the period. Several weak perturbations/vorticity maxima will eject northeastward across the central/southern Rockies and central/northern Plains today in the associated cyclonic flow, which will become strongly difluent across the northern Plains overnight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary/occluded cyclone centered over west-central ND, occluded front to southeastern ND, warm front from there to western/southern WI, and slow-moving cold to quasistationary front across eastern SD, northeastern through south-central NE, northwestern KS, to a low in CO between LHX-LIC. By 00Z, the northern low should move slowly eastward to northeastward to northeastern ND, with front arching over the eastern Dakotas to northeastern and south-central NE, then to another low over northeastern CO. This evening, the central High Plains low will shift/redevelop over northwestern KS and move into south-central/central NE. By 12Z, the main surface low should be over central or south-central NE, with cold front extending southwestward across western KS and southeastern CO, and moving southeastward again. A dryline -- initially drawn across western KS, the TX Panhandle, to the Big Bend area of TX, should move eastward into western OK and west-central TX this afternoon before retreating northwestward tonight. Capping and lack of stronger lift should suppress substantial convective potential on the dryline. ...Central Plains to parts of SD/MN... Three primary convective episodes across this region cumulatively will offer the great majority of severe-thunderstorm threats through the period, and are covered chronologically below. 1. An ongoing, broken band of thunderstorms over central/southern MN, with potential for damaging gusts and hail the next few hours. See SPC severe-thunderstorm watch 286 and related/nearby mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the wind/hail threat from this activity. 2. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop as soon as midday to midafternoon over the higher terrain of northwest/north-central CO and southern WY, as the strongest large-scale ascent ahead of the deepening cyclone spreads over at least marginal low/midlevel moisture and steep lapse rates in the region. Isolated strong-severe gusts and hail will be possible with this "early" activity as it continues to spread/build east- northeastward onto the adjoining High Plains of northeastern CO/eastern WY, western NE and perhaps southwestern SD. Upon leaving the mountains, this regime will encounter a favorable environment of upslope flow with a substantial headlong component relative to storm motion, with the resultant strong storm-relative low-level winds enabling optimized lift. These factors should help to sustain this activity toward the Sandhills and Badlands into evening. The southeastern part of this regime over NE and perhaps south-central SD will be in the most-favorable low-level moisture and instability north of the boundary, should last longer than farther north/ northwest, and may merge with the next process in NE. 3. Scattered thunderstorms should develop near the boundary late this afternoon and this evening over central/northeastern NE, with early-stage supercell mode possible. Convection should evolve upscale to a clustered, bowing, probably cold-pool-driven complex with time into parts of northwestern IA, southeastern SD and southern/central MN, moving astride the instability/buoyancy gradient related to the baroclinic zone. Damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a tornado or two may occur with any supercells, especially along the boundary where low-level moisture, SRH, hodograph size, and vorticity will be maximized. In the adjoining warm sector, steep low/middle-level lapse rates, strong diurnal mixing, and related favorable DCAPE will support wind potential. 2500-4000 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE is expected near the front, supported by surface dew points in the 60s. By 00-06Z, this corridor also will be near the axis of the strongest 500-250-mb layer flow, contributing to effective-shear magnitudes commonly in the 50-70-kt range. Descending rear-inflow jet(s) also may transport momentum downward from the strong flow aloft, augmenting the cold pools and wind potential, until activity encounters more-stable boundary-layer air late tonight across the upper Mississippi Valley. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 05/29/2022 Read more

088
ABPZ20 KNHC 291141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Agatha, located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

A third year of drought means less water for Northern California and less water for rice acreage. Rice growers along the Sacramento and Feather rivers will have to leave fields idle, according to a rice farming systems adviser and director at the University of California Butte County Cooperative Extension. In Butte County, about 60% to 80% of rice acres will be planted as usual, but in Glenn and Colusa counties, just about 10% of rice will be planted, he said. Reduced water supplies in 2021 meant that there were fewer acres of rice planted last year, too. Irrigation districts along the Feather River hold a 50% entitlement minimum according to a 1969 water diversion agreement, which Lake Oroville can provide, so 60% to 70% of rice should be planted along the Feather River. Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District manager stated that farmers in his district will likely plant only 2,000 acres of a total 100,000 acres of rice normally planted for just 2% of normal. While the irrigation district has a 75% water entitlement agreement, Lake Shasta does not hold enough water to fulfill the agreement. The district will get just 18% of their water rights. The sharp reduction in water supplies has forced some rice growers to let their employees go, increasing unemployment in the area. There will also be fewer people employed processing rice. Chico Enterprise-Record (Calif.), May 28, 2022 California’s rice acreage is expected to fall to its lowest level since 1984, according to the Department of Agriculture. It is predicted that 348,000 acres of rice will be planted this year, down from 407,000 acres in 2021. KERO-TV ABC 23 Bakersfield-Turn to 23 (Calif.), May 11, 2022

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2022 14:34:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2022 15:22:31 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to gradually become better organized with a central dense overcast feature and a series of curved bands evident in the latest imagery. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 2.5/35 kt, but given recent trends, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 40 kt. Agatha is gradually turning to the right, but at a slow forward speed. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 285/4 kt. The storm is expected to gradually make a turn to the north later today or tonight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion on Sunday as Agatha becomes embedded in the flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to its northwest. This motion should take the storm inland over southern Mexico on Monday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids. The storm is expected to remain in near ideal environmental conditions of very low wind shear, high SSTs and oceanic heat, and a moist mid-level airmass until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Monday. In fact, several of the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are higher than 60 percent, indicative that rapid intensification is a distinct possibility during the next day or so. Given these conditions and guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the models and calls for Agatha to become a hurricane in 24 hours, with additional strengthening expected until landfall. Based on the current forecast, new watches and warnings will likely be required later today. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of this area. Interests should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 100W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 33(44) 32(76) X(76) X(76) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 33(42) X(42) X(42) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 45(64) X(64) X(64) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) X(28) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 25(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AGATHA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 98.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 ...AGATHA MOVING SLOWLY OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 98.4W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late Sunday or early Monday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected: Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...AGATHA MOVING SLOWLY OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat May 28 the center of Agatha was located near 13.2, -98.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

No watches are valid as of Sat May 28 13:54:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 28 13:54:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts (some over 70 mph) and large hail are expected today across parts of the central and northern Plains. A few severe storms may also occur across parts of the southern Plains and in the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A progressive, mid/upper-level synoptic pattern is forecast through the period, as one trough leaves the eastern CONUS and another crosses the West. The eastern trough is devolving from an open-wave cyclone over PA at this time, and extends south-southwestward across the Carolinas , GA and the western FL Panhandle. The primary vorticity lobe and former closed circulation will move off the coastal Mid-Atlantic and south of Long Island/southern New England by 00Z, with the trough south-southwestward over the Outer Banks. Out west, a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft -- with several embedded shortwaves -- will spread across the area from the High Plains westward, along with synoptic-scale height falls and general cooling aloft. The strongest shortwave trough -- now approaching 130W, west of the Pacific Northwest -- will move inland around 00Z. This perturbation then should dig southeastward to NV and eastern OR by the end of the period. Meanwhile, a weaker yet still well- evident perturbation -- spotted in moisture-channel imagery over northern NV -- will eject northeastward to portions of WY and eastern MT by 0)Z, then across ND by 12Z tomorrow. The surface analysis at 11Z showed weak lows connected by troughs over southwestern MB, eastern SD and near SHR. A cold front extended from the SHR low across northern UT and southern NV. By 00Z, the SHR low should relocate to western SD, with cold front southwestward across WY. Moist return flow across the lower southern/central Plains will sharpen a dryline, expected to extend from northern Coahuila north-northeastward to near CDS, then northward over the extreme eastern Panhandles, western KS and the NE Sandhills by 00Z. By 12Z, the low should occlude and reach northwestern ND, with a frontal triple point over southeastern ND, warm front over central MN/WI, and cold front over central NE, northwestern KS and south-central CO. A separate cold front -- analyzed initially from eastern NY to the central Carolinas and southern GA -- should move eastward over the Mid-Atlantic and New England today. The front is expected to reach (and decelerate over) the eastern Carolinas around the end of the period. ...Northern Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop during mid/late afternoon, in a band of maximized deep-layer ascent from north- central/northeastern WY southeastward to the NE Sandhills. This activity is expected to offer severe wind (with some gusts above 65 kt possible) as it moves northeastward across eastern WY, extreme southeastern MT, western/central SD, and west-central/north-central NE from late afternoon into this evening. Strengthening low-level convergence is expected amidst the mass response to the approaching synoptic and shortwave troughs, and near the surface low. Storm-relative flow in the low-level/inflow layer also should increase with time, strengthening vertical shear and helping to organize and sustain the activity. A limiting factor will be lack of greater low-level moisture, though time series of forecast soundings suggest a balance appears likely between enough mixing/dryness to foster a deep boundary layer supporting downdraft acceleration, and too little moisture for organized convection. Mixing/heating will be muted somewhat by increasing mid/high cloud cover. Nonetheless, with surface dew points generally in the mid 40s to low 50s F, steep low/middle-level lapse rates will support 300-800 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE (locally higher in NE where greater moisture will advect by late afternoon). Increases of both low-level moisture and MLCINH with time will be counterbalancing effects across central/eastern SD and northern NE for a few hours this evening. Activity then should weaken late this evening into tonight over the eastern Dakotas as it encounters progressively more-stable boundary-layer conditions, though marginal hail/wind potential will persist northeastward into portions of MN. ...Northeast CONUS... Near a prefrontal trough, a gradual increase in convective coverage and strength should occur over the next few hours, with isolated strong to marginally severe gusts possible by midday to early afternoon. This should occur behind a departing belt of morning clouds/precip, as a sliver of favorably moist, inland warm sector destabilizes from a combination of warm advection and insolation. Meanwhile, midlevels will destabilize slightly with increasing large-scale ascent preceding the mid/upper trough. The result should be around 500-1000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE and negligible MLCINH over southeastern NY and southern New England, with MLCAPE decreasing northeastward to around 200-500 J/kg in a narrower, eastward- shifting corridor across ME. Low-level winds/shear will be modest, but strong mid/upper flow will contribute to favorable deep shear (e.g., 30-35-kt effective-shear magnitudes and up to about 90 kt of cloud-layer shear) for a few organized multicell clusters, transient supercells or small bows capable of damaging gusts. ...Southern Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may initiate near the dryline during mid/late afternoon and move into a hot, well-mixed boundary layer with steep lapse rates and large dewpoint depressions. The main concern will be severe gusts. A conditional risk of significant-severe downburst gusts exists; however, uncertainties regarding overall severe-thunderstorm coverage currently preclude a 15% unconditional wind upgrade that would allow a 10%-sig area within. Intense heating will boost surface temperatures along and east of the dryline to the upper 90s to mid 100s F over the outlook area, removing MLCINH and fostering pulses of updrafts up and down the dryline. MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range should be common, locally/briefly higher, with similar magnitudes of DCAPE. Veering of winds with height will contribute to 30-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes, despite lack of stronger mid/upper-level flow -- supporting some organization potential for any convection that can survive some thermodynamic limitations. Dry entrainment will be a restricting factor for convective growth/maintenance, but a few cells may mature and last long enough to produce strong to severe gusts, before remaining activity diminishes in the cooling evening boundary layer. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 05/28/2022 Read more

612
ABPZ20 KNHC 281119
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat May 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Agatha, located a little over 200 miles
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Agatha are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Agatha are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW FLO TO 35 SE GSO TO 25 NE DAN TO 25 NE LYH TO 20 SSW AOO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 ..DEAN..05/27/22 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 276 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-271640- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-017-021-027-031-033-037-043-510-271640- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

MD 0936 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 276... FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Tornado Watch 276... Valid 271459Z - 271630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 276 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado will continue through the morning. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is ongoing this morning from parts of VA into central NC. Convective intensity and organization has been relatively limited over the last 1-2 hours, but with filtered insolation and modest destabilization noted downstream, some intensification is possible through the remainder of the morning into early afternoon, with MLCAPE generally expected in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. The recent VWP from KLWX depicts a favorably veering wind profile, and a brief tornado or two will remain possible with the stronger embedded circulations, in addition to a threat of damaging wind gusts with any stronger bowing segments. ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/27/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH... LAT...LON 35917835 36977784 38417782 39197789 39587749 39577645 39187613 37357675 35997744 35697787 35747823 35917835 Read more

MD 0935 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0935 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Areas affected...Eastern NC into southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271444Z - 271615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes may increase with time into early afternoon. New watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a QLCS to the west, discrete convection is gradually increasing across parts of eastern NC into southeast VA, within a warming and destabilizing environment. MLCAPE is currently in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, with some modest increase possible as diurnal heating continues. Area VWPs show moderate low/midlevel flow across the region, with sufficient effective shear for some organized storm structures. A few marginal supercells may evolve with time within this environment. Rather unidirectional flow is not overly supportive of a tornado risk, but with rich low-level moisture in place and the potentially favorable discrete/cellular mode, a couple of tornadoes will be possible, in addition to a threat of locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail. Watch issuance is possible sometime later this morning in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/27/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34577811 36057740 36797713 37547662 37387594 35837588 34617710 34357775 34577811 Read more

WW 276 TORNADO DC MD NC VA WV CW 271020Z - 271800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 620 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Central and northern Maryland Central and northern North Carolina Central and northern Virginia Extreme northeastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 620 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A gradual ramp-up of thunderstorm intensity and coverage should continue through the remainder of the morning in a destabilizing, moist environment, with enough shear to support supercells and bowing segments. A few tornadoes and scattered damaging to locally severe gusts are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles southwest of Southern Pines NC to 40 miles east northeast of Martinsburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible today over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorms may produce severe gusts this afternoon into early evening over portions of the northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A progressive synoptic pattern in mid/upper levels will feature two dominant cyclones and their associated troughs: 1. A long-lived circulation now centered over the lower Wabash River area, with trough south-southwestward across southern MS to the north-central Gulf. As a closely phased, northern-stream perturbation amplifies across ON, the cyclone should move east-northeastward to PA and become an open-wave trough today. By 00Z, the combined trough should extend across north-central through south-central QC and southern New England, having moved offshore from the Mid-Atlantic a few hours prior. 2. A complex cyclone over the northeastern Pacific, covering much of the area from the southern Gulf of Alaska to the coastal Pacific Northwest. The main low -- evident in moisture-channel imagery west of Vancouver Island -- should move slowly northeastward to the mainland BC coastline north of Vancouver Island by 12Z. A series of mostly low-amplitude shortwave perturbations will be embedded in the cyclonic-flow field to its southeast, as heights fall across the Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Plains. The 11Z surface analysis showed a complex, elongated area of low pressure from southwestern QC across Lake Huron to southwestern Lower MI. A cold front was drawn across western PA, WV, southwestern VA, the western Carolinas, and western FL Panhandle. The western part of the same boundary has become quasistationary approximately along the northern Gulf Coast to the middle TX Coast, to near DRT, and a low near FST. By 12Z tomorrow the cold front should reach western New England, the eastern Carolinas, southern GA, still quasistationary near the north-central Gulf Coast, and dissipating across south TX. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast/Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms -- mainly in a north-northeast/south-southwest line already underway in western parts of the area -- are expected to offer sporadic damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. See tornado watch 276 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details over portions of MD/VA/NC/DC and eastern WV Panhandle. Activity should move into a moist, low-LCL boundary layer that will destabilize from south to north via a combination of theta-e advection and diurnal heating tempered by cloud cover. MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg already is apparent over eastern parts of the Carolinas, and may expand over southern/eastern VA in the preconvective sector. Values will decrease gradually northward to around 500 J/kg in southern/eastern NY and parts of New England. Meanwhile, height falls and strengthening mid/upper winds will overspread the area ahead of the progressive cyclone and trough aloft. Favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-55-kt range) will exist for supercells, though deep-shear and mean-wind vectors will have a substantial component parallel to the axis of convective lift. Hodographs will be long but not particular large in the low levels over most of the area. As such, predominantly quasi-linear mode, with embedded bows/LEWPs and related mesocirculations, will pose a threat for damaging gusts and brief tornadoes, while any relatively discrete supercells that still may form in the foregoing warm sector offer a cyclic tornado threat. The favorably unstable warm sector will narrow with weaker buoyancy northward extent toward southern NY and northern New England, beneath stronger upper-level winds. However, strong/isolated severe surface-based convection is possible as far north as northern New England. ...Northern High Plains, northern Rockies... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are excepted to develop this afternoon over the southern MT/northern WY area, with the best-organized activity perhaps initiating over or near the northern Bighorns. Convection should move eastward astride a low-level moisture/instability axis, and atop a well-mixed boundary layer with upper 30s to mid 40s F surface dewpoints, supporting 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE, with even larger DCAPE values. Some upscale growth and cold-pool organization are possible. The main concern will be severe gusts, some of which may reach or exceed 65 kt. Activity should weaken this evening as it moves into a stabilizing boundary layer. Father southwest, isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms will develop today across parts of the northern Rockies into southern ID amidst weak MLCINH and marginal moisture. meanwhile cooling aloft and diurnal heating will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates and remove MLCINH, with just enough boundary-layer moisture to support 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE. With deep/well-mixed subcloud layers expected, strong/isolated severe gusts may be noted this afternoon into early evening. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 05/27/2022 Read more