Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-ridging, coupled with a surface anticyclone centered over the OH/TN Valleys, will support mass subsidence and static stability across most of the CONUS today, limiting thunderstorm potential. A surface low and associated marginal buoyancy appear to be too far offshore from the lower TX coastline to support a threat for organized thunder, hence the removal of the general thunder line (though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out). Modest cooling aloft amid low-topped convection advecting off of Lake Ontario may support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a couple of lightning flashes later today. Otherwise, modest warm-air advection inland across portions of the east-central FL coastline may support an isolated thunderstorm later tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. A lee trough will likely be in place along the northern to central High Plains at the start of the period, and is forecast to migrate east through the day in tandem with a passing upper-level impulse along the U.S./Canada border. A dry air mass will likely overspread the central Plains ahead of the trough, but winds should remain modest given a slow reduction of the regional pressure gradient through the afternoon. Breezy downslope winds may persist across eastern WY during the morning hours, but should slowly diminish through late afternoon as the trough shifts east. While an hour or two of elevated fire weather conditions appears probable during the early afternoon hours, the offset of peak winds from diurnal RH minimums limits confidence in the overall duration of fire weather conditions. This idea is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows the best signal for elevated conditions across southeast WY for a couple of hours early Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. A lee trough will likely be in place along the northern to central High Plains at the start of the period, and is forecast to migrate east through the day in tandem with a passing upper-level impulse along the U.S./Canada border. A dry air mass will likely overspread the central Plains ahead of the trough, but winds should remain modest given a slow reduction of the regional pressure gradient through the afternoon. Breezy downslope winds may persist across eastern WY during the morning hours, but should slowly diminish through late afternoon as the trough shifts east. While an hour or two of elevated fire weather conditions appears probable during the early afternoon hours, the offset of peak winds from diurnal RH minimums limits confidence in the overall duration of fire weather conditions. This idea is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows the best signal for elevated conditions across southeast WY for a couple of hours early Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. A lee trough will likely be in place along the northern to central High Plains at the start of the period, and is forecast to migrate east through the day in tandem with a passing upper-level impulse along the U.S./Canada border. A dry air mass will likely overspread the central Plains ahead of the trough, but winds should remain modest given a slow reduction of the regional pressure gradient through the afternoon. Breezy downslope winds may persist across eastern WY during the morning hours, but should slowly diminish through late afternoon as the trough shifts east. While an hour or two of elevated fire weather conditions appears probable during the early afternoon hours, the offset of peak winds from diurnal RH minimums limits confidence in the overall duration of fire weather conditions. This idea is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows the best signal for elevated conditions across southeast WY for a couple of hours early Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. A lee trough will likely be in place along the northern to central High Plains at the start of the period, and is forecast to migrate east through the day in tandem with a passing upper-level impulse along the U.S./Canada border. A dry air mass will likely overspread the central Plains ahead of the trough, but winds should remain modest given a slow reduction of the regional pressure gradient through the afternoon. Breezy downslope winds may persist across eastern WY during the morning hours, but should slowly diminish through late afternoon as the trough shifts east. While an hour or two of elevated fire weather conditions appears probable during the early afternoon hours, the offset of peak winds from diurnal RH minimums limits confidence in the overall duration of fire weather conditions. This idea is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows the best signal for elevated conditions across southeast WY for a couple of hours early Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. A lee trough will likely be in place along the northern to central High Plains at the start of the period, and is forecast to migrate east through the day in tandem with a passing upper-level impulse along the U.S./Canada border. A dry air mass will likely overspread the central Plains ahead of the trough, but winds should remain modest given a slow reduction of the regional pressure gradient through the afternoon. Breezy downslope winds may persist across eastern WY during the morning hours, but should slowly diminish through late afternoon as the trough shifts east. While an hour or two of elevated fire weather conditions appears probable during the early afternoon hours, the offset of peak winds from diurnal RH minimums limits confidence in the overall duration of fire weather conditions. This idea is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows the best signal for elevated conditions across southeast WY for a couple of hours early Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A zone of progressive westerlies and associated mid-level shortwave troughs will reside across the northern tier of states on Tuesday. The primary feature for convective interest will be a weak mid-level trough/low over the lower MS Valley and Gulf of Mexico as it slowly moves east during the period. A surface low initially over the western Gulf of Mexico will develop northeastward to be near the mouth of the MS River by early Wednesday morning. Weak instability will be confined to southeastern LA eastward to Mobile Bay. A few elevated, weak thunderstorms are possible, especially Tuesday night close to the coast. Farther east, a few weak thunderstorms are possible over the southern third of the FL Peninsula, but only weak storm intensity is expected. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will influence weather conditions across much of the Lower 48. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A zone of progressive westerlies and associated mid-level shortwave troughs will reside across the northern tier of states on Tuesday. The primary feature for convective interest will be a weak mid-level trough/low over the lower MS Valley and Gulf of Mexico as it slowly moves east during the period. A surface low initially over the western Gulf of Mexico will develop northeastward to be near the mouth of the MS River by early Wednesday morning. Weak instability will be confined to southeastern LA eastward to Mobile Bay. A few elevated, weak thunderstorms are possible, especially Tuesday night close to the coast. Farther east, a few weak thunderstorms are possible over the southern third of the FL Peninsula, but only weak storm intensity is expected. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will influence weather conditions across much of the Lower 48. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A zone of progressive westerlies and associated mid-level shortwave troughs will reside across the northern tier of states on Tuesday. The primary feature for convective interest will be a weak mid-level trough/low over the lower MS Valley and Gulf of Mexico as it slowly moves east during the period. A surface low initially over the western Gulf of Mexico will develop northeastward to be near the mouth of the MS River by early Wednesday morning. Weak instability will be confined to southeastern LA eastward to Mobile Bay. A few elevated, weak thunderstorms are possible, especially Tuesday night close to the coast. Farther east, a few weak thunderstorms are possible over the southern third of the FL Peninsula, but only weak storm intensity is expected. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will influence weather conditions across much of the Lower 48. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A zone of progressive westerlies and associated mid-level shortwave troughs will reside across the northern tier of states on Tuesday. The primary feature for convective interest will be a weak mid-level trough/low over the lower MS Valley and Gulf of Mexico as it slowly moves east during the period. A surface low initially over the western Gulf of Mexico will develop northeastward to be near the mouth of the MS River by early Wednesday morning. Weak instability will be confined to southeastern LA eastward to Mobile Bay. A few elevated, weak thunderstorms are possible, especially Tuesday night close to the coast. Farther east, a few weak thunderstorms are possible over the southern third of the FL Peninsula, but only weak storm intensity is expected. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will influence weather conditions across much of the Lower 48. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A zone of progressive westerlies and associated mid-level shortwave troughs will reside across the northern tier of states on Tuesday. The primary feature for convective interest will be a weak mid-level trough/low over the lower MS Valley and Gulf of Mexico as it slowly moves east during the period. A surface low initially over the western Gulf of Mexico will develop northeastward to be near the mouth of the MS River by early Wednesday morning. Weak instability will be confined to southeastern LA eastward to Mobile Bay. A few elevated, weak thunderstorms are possible, especially Tuesday night close to the coast. Farther east, a few weak thunderstorms are possible over the southern third of the FL Peninsula, but only weak storm intensity is expected. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will influence weather conditions across much of the Lower 48. ..Smith.. 11/13/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Morning surface observations show relative humidity around 20 percent with winds gusting around 20-30 mph across eastern Colorado into western Kansas and Nebraska, where Elevated fire weather concerns are expected today. Further drying and warming will continue through the afternoon as dry/warm westerly downslope winds increase and diurnal heating leads to a deepening mixed layer. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable this afternoon across parts of the High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper-ridge gradually shifting east from the northern Rockies into the Plains. Although slight surface pressure rises have been noted over the past 6-12 hours along the northern High Plains, the expectation is for steady pressure falls through the day as increasing west/southwest flow aloft drive lee troughing. In response, 15-20 mph westerly winds are expected across eastern WY. Antecedent dry conditions combined with downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating should support widespread RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Although areas of elevated conditions appear likely, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. To the southeast into northwest KS and adjacent portions of CO and NE, 15-25 mph southerly winds are expected to the east of the deepening lee trough. Recent surface observations show some degree of moisture return ongoing across the southern Plains, but this will likely be insufficient to offset the influence of diurnal heating/mixing, leading to another day of 15-25% RH values across western KS into NE (though a dry bias is noted in recent HRRR/RAP runs which cast some uncertainty on afternoon RH minimums). Fuel guidance remains somewhat nebulous regarding fuel status, but 30-day rainfall deficits, coupled with dry conditions over the weekend, has likely allowed for sufficient curing of finer fuels across parts of northwest KS/northeast CO. An Elevated risk area is introduced where confidence in receptive fuels should best overlap stronger winds/low RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Morning surface observations show relative humidity around 20 percent with winds gusting around 20-30 mph across eastern Colorado into western Kansas and Nebraska, where Elevated fire weather concerns are expected today. Further drying and warming will continue through the afternoon as dry/warm westerly downslope winds increase and diurnal heating leads to a deepening mixed layer. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable this afternoon across parts of the High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper-ridge gradually shifting east from the northern Rockies into the Plains. Although slight surface pressure rises have been noted over the past 6-12 hours along the northern High Plains, the expectation is for steady pressure falls through the day as increasing west/southwest flow aloft drive lee troughing. In response, 15-20 mph westerly winds are expected across eastern WY. Antecedent dry conditions combined with downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating should support widespread RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Although areas of elevated conditions appear likely, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. To the southeast into northwest KS and adjacent portions of CO and NE, 15-25 mph southerly winds are expected to the east of the deepening lee trough. Recent surface observations show some degree of moisture return ongoing across the southern Plains, but this will likely be insufficient to offset the influence of diurnal heating/mixing, leading to another day of 15-25% RH values across western KS into NE (though a dry bias is noted in recent HRRR/RAP runs which cast some uncertainty on afternoon RH minimums). Fuel guidance remains somewhat nebulous regarding fuel status, but 30-day rainfall deficits, coupled with dry conditions over the weekend, has likely allowed for sufficient curing of finer fuels across parts of northwest KS/northeast CO. An Elevated risk area is introduced where confidence in receptive fuels should best overlap stronger winds/low RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more