Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario. The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through, but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe potential is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario. The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through, but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe potential is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan through WY early D4/Saturday morning. Relatively progressive upper pattern will take this shortwave through the northern/central Plains on D4/Saturday, Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on D5/Sunday, and Northeast on D6/Monday. Upper ridging is expected within the northern stream in the wake of this wave, gradually moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest on D5/Sunday into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on D6/Monday. By D7/Tuesday morning, upper ridging is anticipated from the Mid MS Valley into Ontario. The northern stream will remain well north of any low-level moisture, which will remain confined fro the Gulf Coast throughout the period. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move across northern Mexico and into TX from D5/Sunday into D7/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across TX as this wave moves through, but buoyancy and shear will be modest and the overall severe potential is low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is expected from the northern/central Plains eastward to the Northeast early Friday, with enhanced confluent mid-level flow covering much of the eastern CONUS. This troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. The enhanced mid-level flow is expected to shift eastward as well, with the strongest flow off the East Coast by Friday night. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the southern High Plains and then northeastward across OK throughout the day, losing amplitude as it does. A remnant cold front will likely be situated across the TX Coastal Plain, with most of the ascent associated with the shortwave well north of this boundary. However, moist southwesterly flow will stretch from northern Mexico across TX into the Lower MS Valley, contributing to very moist profiles across South TX and the TX Coastal Plain on Friday. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting overall buoyancy, but a few isolated lightning flashes are possible within the deeper convective cores. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period Thursday as Santa Ana winds are likely across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Expect these conditions to last through the morning before potentially waning Thursday afternoon. The mid-level ridge is forecast to break down on Thursday in response to the shortwave trough moving toward the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, high pressure in the Great Basin will weaken/move into the Plains. This should bring an end to this round of Santa Ana winds across southern California. Some windy conditions are expected Thursday in the northern Plains, but fuels are still sufficiently moist to mitigate most fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves east across the Southwest, surface high pressure is arriving in its wake. This surface high is over Oregon this morning and will settle into the Great Basin by this afternoon/evening. This will set up offshore Santa Ana winds across southern California during the day today with some assistance from surface heating and deeper mixing bringing stronger winds to the surface. Therefore, as the boundary layer cools, expect some weakening of winds. However, as high pressure reintensifies across the Great Basin amid cooling overnight temperatures, expect the gradient to intensify again Thursday morning with strong offshore flow developing, particularly in Ventura county. Some Elevated to locally critical conditions may be possible across parts of the Southwest today. However, these conditions appear somewhat transient and may not last long enough to warrant an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more