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No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 18 17:43:02 UTC 2022.

The low level of the Mississippi River exposed a shipwreck on the banks of the river near downtown Baton Rouge. Archaeologists believe the 95-foot long ship to be a ferry that sank in the late 1800s to early 1900s. WLS-TV ABC 7 Chicago (Ill.), Oct. 18, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe weather is expected across the U.S. Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will pivot over eastern Ontario/western Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region, while the attendant trough envelops the eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will mostly extend mostly well offshore across the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic water, arcing into central Maine Wednesday morning. The front will quickly shift east across eastern Maine during the morning. Cold temperatures aloft, resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates beneath the Great Lakes upper low could support a lightning flash or two over Lakes Ontario and Erie in lake effect convection, but coverage will remain low and confined to offshore waters. Otherwise, stable conditions amid widespread surface high pressure across the remainder of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 10/18/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of the central Gulf Coast as a dry post-frontal air mass overspreads the region. Localized fire weather concerns may develop across portions of the eastern Plains as near-record-low dewpoints linger of the region. Dry conditions will persist across the northern Great Basin, but ridging over the northwest CONUS will limit wind speeds, modulating the fire weather threat. ...Gulf Coast... An offshore flow regime has become established along the central Gulf Coast after a cold frontal passage late Monday. Latest guidance suggests that strong cold advection will be in place over the coast by peak heating, which will aid in steepening low-level lapse rates and downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability in RH values in the 20-30% range, which will support elevated fire weather conditions over an area with ERC values above the 90th percentile. ...Eastern Plains to East Texas... Early-morning surface observations across eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO are sampling single digit to low-teen dewpoints, which are near record low values for mid October. This unseasonably dry air mass will yield RH values between 20-25% from the lower MO River Valley to eastern TX as it migrates south through the day. Winds generally between 10-15 mph may occasionally gust into the upper teens and low 20s, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. Low confidence in the sustenance and coverage of these conditions over areas that have not received recent rainfall precludes additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Florida... A cluster of showers and some embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southwest Florida Peninsula early this afternoon. Preceding anvil-related cloud debris is overspreading the region, but some cloud breaks are noted particularly in vicinity of the front across the central/south-central Peninsula where modest boundary-layer destabilization is occurring. Further warming and steepening of low-level lapse rates could allow for a few stronger storms to develop along the front and/or near the east coast of the southern Peninsula this afternoon. However, the potential for severe storms should be limited by weak mid-level lapse rates and modest low-level convergence, with organized/sustained severe storms not currently anticipated. ..Guyer/Smith.. 10/18/2022 Read more

The Mississippi Forestry Commission has responded to 227 wildfires, with 3,032 acres burned since Sept. 15, 2022. WTOK-TV Channel 11 (Meridian, Miss.), Oct 18, 2022

The Mississippi Forestry Commission issued a statewide Wildland Fire Alert, which urges the public to postpone unnecessary outdoor burning until drought conditions ease. The state has had little to no rainfall over the last few weeks. WTOK-TV Channel 11 (Meridian, Miss.), Oct 18, 2022

The Umatilla National Forest prescribed fire page contains information on the Forest's planned, active and completed prescribed burning for 2022. In general, there are two burn seasons each year to accomplish prescribed fire projects. Early season burns typically occur in late winter through the early fire season in late spring/early summer. Late season burns typically occur in late fire season and into December. The specific dates of a burn during a season is dependent on many variables including wildfire activity, resource availability, current and predicted weather, and smoke management constraints. Frequent, low-intensity fire is essential for healthy forests and reducing the risk of uncharacteristic wildfire caused by excessive fuel buildup. Prescribed burning is an effective tool for removing excessive amounts of brush, shrubs, and trees, while also encouraging the growth of native vegetation. NEW! Prescribed Fire Activity Interactive Map (This interactive map will be best...

Effects from the summer drought in Massachusetts were reaching into the fall. A beekeeper in Attleboro lost thousands of worker bees this summer to drought and heat and worries that some of her hives will not survive the winter. Honey production was halved this summer. Bees also had to travel further to find nectar. Some local streams could become dead zones, hampering local water supplies if drought persists into the fall. The Seven Mile River, a tributary of the Ten Mile and a major source for Attleboro’s drinking water went dry early during the drought. Dead fish littered the dry riverbank, and fish concentrated in small pools. A livestock owner who grows hay on conservation land only got one cutting of hay this year rather than three or four as they usually get. Drought and the cost of fuel were a double blow for the livestock owner. She irrigates from a pond, and it requires more pumping to get the water. The Sun Chronicle (Attleboro, Mass.), Oct 15, 2022

 Brief update on October 5, 2022:   We successfully completed a crew swap by shuttling out four smokejumpers and inserting five Entiat Initial Attack crew members who will be located at the Pasayten Airport cabin and be available for taking action if necessary in protecting the cabin.All of the fires in the NW Pasayten Complex continue to burn with the most activity coming from the Parks and Kid Fire, especially where they have joined together. Monument 83 Lookout and repeater appear to be in good shape with no flames in the immediate vicinity.  Light to moderate fire activity is occurring on the Skagit, Elbow, and Three Fools fires. The Shull Fire has minimal activity and the smoke is isolated to one corner of the fire.

The Bureau of Land Management Southwest District plans to conduct several prescribed burns beginning early October or as conditions allow. The prescribed burn projects will be on the Gunnison, Tres Rios and Uncompahgre Field Offices. The planned burns are part of larger projects to reduce hazardous fuels; protect wildland-urban interface communities; improve big game habitat, sage grouse habitat, and range conditions; and reintroduce fire to a fire-adapted ecosystem to restore healthy forests and species diversity.  While no road closures are expected during the projects, camping near the units is discouraged due to increased traffic and likelihood of smoke in the area, particularly at night. Multiple days of burning may occur throughout the fall into the winter, as fuel conditions and weather permit. Project areas will be monitored once completed to ensure public safety. While smoke may be visible in the burn area at times, most of the smoke will lift and dissipate during the...

 The Summit Fire was ignited by lightning and discovered on the afternoon of August 3, 2022. It is located at an elevation of approximately 9,000 feet in southern Sequoia National Park. The fire received significant moisture and showed little to no growth until August 23. It then grew moderately through the first week of September. The fire is located in an area with recent fire history, including the 2020 Castle Fire. The fire does not currently threaten any people or infrastructure. However, fire managers decided that the best way to manage risk in this situation is to suppress the fire using an indirect strategy. This indirect strategy protected firefighter safety by allowing them to engage the fire from favorable terrain, took advantage of existing burn scars and natural features, and limited impacts to land managed as wilderness. Beginning September 8, low intensity backfires were ignited along trail systems, the edges of green meadows, and fire scars to strengthen these areas...

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable across portions of the central Gulf Coast Tuesday afternoon as a dry, post-frontal air mass moves into the region. Unseasonably dry air, currently observed across the northern Plains, will continue to push south over the next 48 hours. Afternoon RH values in the 20-30% range will be common from the northern Plains to the central Gulf Coast region for Tuesday afternoon. Recent hi-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probability for 20% RH across south-central LA into the FL Panhandle with winds near 15-20 mph. Stronger gusts up to 25 mph will be possible amid a strong cold advection regime in the wake of the prior frontal passage. The latest fuel analyses hint that ERC values are generally near or above the 90th percentile outside of the few pockets of rainfall that have fallen over the past 72 hours, which will support the fire weather threat. More localized fire weather concerns may emerge across east-central TX and into parts of OK/KS where 15 mph winds may overlap with reduced RH. However, these conditions appear too localized and/or will likely occur over areas with recent rainfall, precluding the need for additional highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 17 18:03:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 17 18:03:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The planting of the 2023 hard red wheat crop in the Southern Plains is roughly halfway complete, although drought has made farmers reconsider plans to plant as the dryness may not let crops develop properly. Delayed emergence can reduce yield. Since wheat helps anchor topsoil in the Plains and keep soil from blowing, poor emergence could also be problematic in terms of soil conservation. Reuters (New York), Oct 17, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is unlikely across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep cyclone will remain over parts of Ontario and Quebec on Tuesday, with strong cyclonic flow aloft encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging will remain over the West. At the surface, high pressure will continue spreading south across the Plains, Gulf of Mexico, and Southeast, maintaining dry offshore flow. One area that may experience a few afternoon storms is south FL, where a moist and unstable air mass will remain ahead of a cold front. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cold for this time of year, with 500 mb values of -7 to -8 C resulting in poor lapse rates. Heating will aid storm formation, though convergence will be weak with the westerly flow regime. Isolated cells appear most likely along the eastern coast of FL, though severe appears unlikely. Elsewhere, weak elevated instability may result in sporadic embedded lightning flashes across parts of New England, with very low instability values precluding a severe risk despite strong shear. ..Jewell.. 10/17/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation into southeast Missouri based on morning forecast guidance. Otherwise, the forecast appears on track and no additional changes were necessary. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will emerge primarily across parts of the Plains and Midwest today amid breezy conditions within a dry post-frontal air mass. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest, but a building ridge will limit wind speeds and modulate the overall fire weather concern outside of locations that see stronger, terrain-induced winds. ...Lower MO River Valley... Early-morning surface observations are sampling dewpoints in the mid to upper teens across much of the eastern Plains. These values are near the 10th percentile climatologically for mid October, and when combined with diurnal warming, should result in RH reductions well into the low 20s this afternoon. Winds today should be somewhat more benign compared to previous days as high pressure builds over the northern Plains, but sustained winds near 15-20 mph (gusting to 25 mph) should support a broad swath of elevated fire weather conditions through the lower MO River Valley and possibly into portions of the Midwest. Colder temperatures to the northeast and recent rainfall to the south of the risk area will limit the extent of the fire threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more