Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models suggest that the westerlies will trend a bit more zonal and progressive today across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into the Canadian Prairies. Downstream, it appears that the center of the remnant cyclone over the lower Great Lakes vicinity will redevelop north-northeast of Lake Huron by late tonight, but large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of one embedded short wave impulse now beginning to pivot north-northeastward into and across the Northeast, cold surface ridging will be maintained across much of the Gulf Coast vicinity, while also building northeastward across the south Atlantic Seaboard into the adjacent western Atlantic. This will contribute to the maintenance of generally dry and/or stable conditions across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity. ...Lower Great Lakes vicinity... The axis of the mid-level cold core near the 500 mb level is now in the process of pivoting northeast of Lake Erie. As it overspreads Lake Ontario this afternoon, CAPE for boundary-layer parcels over the relatively warm waters will increase as equilibrium levels rise, and thermodynamic profiles may become marginally conducive to charge separation within associated convective development. Occasional lightning flashes are possible, but any potential for sustained bands appears generally confined to the immediate eastern shores of Lake Ontario (around Watertown) late this afternoon and evening, where/when low-level flow is forecast to strengthen and veer from a southerly to southwesterly component. ..Kerr.. 10/19/2022 Read more

The No Grass Creek fire is located in Powell County on the west end of the Helena Ranger District and far east end of the Pintler Ranger District. The fire was initially reported on Sunday, September 11, 2022. The No Grass Creek fire is in an area that has experienced large amounts of tree mortality. The fuel loading is dense and continuous throughout the Electric Peak inventoried roadless area and recommended wilderness area, and because of the current state of the dead timber, it’s neither safe nor effective to put fire personnel into the area. Fire personnel are managing from the air, while other firefighters are observing the fire’s progression, activity and overall behavior from various vantage points on the two districts. Additional fire resources are completing contingency planning and structure assessment on private lands. Due to the remote location, no homes or private property are threatened by the fire, which provides an opportunity to responsibly allow fire to...

The low Mississippi River has slowed the movement of soybeans and corn downriver, hindering exports, per the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Army Corps of Engineers has been dredging parts of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers to deepen shipping channels to keep barges moving. Despite the effort, shippers still worry that Louisiana Gulf terminals will struggle to source enough grain to meet their export commitments. Total season-to-date inspections for soybeans and corn were down 23% and 21% from last year, respectively. Reuters (New York), Oct 17, 2022

Stage 2 water restrictions began on Oct. 20 for North Bend residents after the driest summer in western Washington in decades. Landscaping may be watered no more than three times per week. KING-TV NBC 5 (Seattle, Wash.), Oct. 18, 2022

Human bones were found on the bank of the Mississippi River near Clarksdale by a woman looking for rocks. The county chief medical examiner shared that a lower jawbone, rib bones and some additional unidentified bones had been discovered. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Oct 18, 2022

Drought in the vicinity of Mitchell reduced production of the dozen colors of corn used to decorate the Corn Palace so the murals will be left in the circus theme until next year. For lack of corn, the 2023 mural theme dubbed “Famous South Dakotans” will be pushed back to 2024. Corn ears were about 33% smaller than usual, and some corn did not pollinate at all this year. The Mitchell Republic (S.D.), Oct 18, 2022

Dry, dusty conditions at harvest time can cause problems, as well as increase the fire danger. The dust made it look like a fog was hanging over a Minnesota field. Another farmer was grateful for auto-steer because the dust made it hard to see. Radio Iowa (Des Moines, Iowa), Oct 18, 2022

Foundation repair businesses in the Kansas City area say that they have received many phone calls from people with damage to their foundations from drought causing the soil to shift. KMBC 9 News (Kansas City, Mo.), Oct 18, 2022

A number of Mississippi counties have enacted burn bans amid drought and high fire activity. Some of the counties are Calhoun, Chickasaw, Clay, Copiah, Humphreys, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lee, Lincoln, Marion, Noxubee, Panola, Pike, Pontotoc, Quitman, Sunflower, Tallahatchie, Tate, Union, Walthall, Washington, and Yazoo. WTOK-TV Channel 11 (Meridian, Miss.), Oct 18, 2022

San Antonio has had nearly 3,000 water main breaks and leaks in the metropolitan area amid drought, which causes soil to shrink and shift, stressing pipes. The area north of downtown had the most leaks and breaks this year with 38, while far west of downtown by Hunt Lane had 32, per the San Antonio Water System data. The city has received just a little over 8 inches of rain since the start of the year rather than the typical 32 inches. San Antonio Express-News (Texas), Oct 18, 2022

In order to reduce the risk of high-intensity wildfire, improve forest health and wildlife habitat, the Bureau of Land Management Tres Rios Field Office has planned a prescribed fire treatment for up to 652 acres on Animas City Mountain in Durango, Colorado. Dependent on weather and the availability of firefighters to conduct the operation, the prescribed burns could take place in spring and fall months. An Environmental Assessment which covers this, as well as other treatment areas in La Plata County, has been completed and is available here: Final Environmental Assessment. Prescribed fires require a comprehensive plan consisting of 21 elements. The plan outlines the methodical process from inception to completion. The Animas City Mountain project is expected to take 2-3 days for ignitions, with additional time to patrol the area and extinguish hot spots. The mountain has been divided into seven units or compartments. Crews are expected to begin burning on the top of the mountain...

The level of Lake Hefner in Oklahoma City has fallen, so water is being released from Lake Canton to replenish Hefner. Water from Lake Hefner provides drinking water for 1.4 million residents in Oklahoma City and central Oklahoma. KOCO-TV ABC 5 Oklahoma City (Okla.), Oct 17, 2022

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. This system has become a little
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression
is likely to form in the next two to three days while the system
moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 18 17:43:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 18 17:43:02 UTC 2022.

The low level of the Mississippi River exposed a shipwreck on the banks of the river near downtown Baton Rouge. Archaeologists believe the 95-foot long ship to be a ferry that sank in the late 1800s to early 1900s. WLS-TV ABC 7 Chicago (Ill.), Oct. 18, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe weather is expected across the U.S. Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will pivot over eastern Ontario/western Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region, while the attendant trough envelops the eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will mostly extend mostly well offshore across the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic water, arcing into central Maine Wednesday morning. The front will quickly shift east across eastern Maine during the morning. Cold temperatures aloft, resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates beneath the Great Lakes upper low could support a lightning flash or two over Lakes Ontario and Erie in lake effect convection, but coverage will remain low and confined to offshore waters. Otherwise, stable conditions amid widespread surface high pressure across the remainder of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 10/18/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of the central Gulf Coast as a dry post-frontal air mass overspreads the region. Localized fire weather concerns may develop across portions of the eastern Plains as near-record-low dewpoints linger of the region. Dry conditions will persist across the northern Great Basin, but ridging over the northwest CONUS will limit wind speeds, modulating the fire weather threat. ...Gulf Coast... An offshore flow regime has become established along the central Gulf Coast after a cold frontal passage late Monday. Latest guidance suggests that strong cold advection will be in place over the coast by peak heating, which will aid in steepening low-level lapse rates and downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability in RH values in the 20-30% range, which will support elevated fire weather conditions over an area with ERC values above the 90th percentile. ...Eastern Plains to East Texas... Early-morning surface observations across eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO are sampling single digit to low-teen dewpoints, which are near record low values for mid October. This unseasonably dry air mass will yield RH values between 20-25% from the lower MO River Valley to eastern TX as it migrates south through the day. Winds generally between 10-15 mph may occasionally gust into the upper teens and low 20s, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. Low confidence in the sustenance and coverage of these conditions over areas that have not received recent rainfall precludes additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Florida... A cluster of showers and some embedded thunderstorms is approaching the southwest Florida Peninsula early this afternoon. Preceding anvil-related cloud debris is overspreading the region, but some cloud breaks are noted particularly in vicinity of the front across the central/south-central Peninsula where modest boundary-layer destabilization is occurring. Further warming and steepening of low-level lapse rates could allow for a few stronger storms to develop along the front and/or near the east coast of the southern Peninsula this afternoon. However, the potential for severe storms should be limited by weak mid-level lapse rates and modest low-level convergence, with organized/sustained severe storms not currently anticipated. ..Guyer/Smith.. 10/18/2022 Read more

The Mississippi Forestry Commission has responded to 227 wildfires, with 3,032 acres burned since Sept. 15, 2022. WTOK-TV Channel 11 (Meridian, Miss.), Oct 18, 2022