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WW 724 SEVERE TSTM TX 232315Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West and Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through early evening and spread generally east-northeastward this evening, with the strongest storms capable of hail and gusty winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Big Spring TX to 25 miles west southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0724 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0724 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 23 23:16:03 UTC 2023.

WW 724 SEVERE TSTM TX 232315Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West and Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through early evening and spread generally east-northeastward this evening, with the strongest storms capable of hail and gusty winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Big Spring TX to 25 miles west southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 23 23:01:01 UTC 2023.

MD 2341 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NM AND WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2341 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM and west TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232032Z - 232300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for hail and strong to severe winds may increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop and move eastward. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Some clearing of low clouds has recently been noted across parts of west TX and southeastern NM as a shortwave trough pivots eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico. As of 2030Z, surface temperatures have generally warmed into 60s where this clearing has occurred. Modest low-level moisture continues to stream northward/westward ahead of a cold front across the southern High Plains, with low to mid 50s surface dewpoints prevalent. Cooling mid-level temperatures acting in concert with the modest daytime heating/moistening of the boundary layer will support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level southwesterly flow of 50-60 kt associated with the upper trough will foster strengthening deep-layer shear through the afternoon and evening across eastern NM into west TX. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity along a weak surface lee trough and the mountains of west TX over the next couple of hours. Initially more discrete/supercellular development should pose some threat for severe hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) given the favorable deep-layer shear and cold temperatures aloft. Later this afternoon and evening, upscale growth into small clusters and more linear structures is anticipated. As this mode transition occurs, strong to locally severe wind gusts around 55-65 mph appear possible where sufficient boundary-layer instability exists to support surface-based thunderstorms. Although the muted daytime heating and thermodynamic environment cast some uncertainty on the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe hail/wind threat, observational trends will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance in the next couple of hours. ..Gleason/Hart.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31290471 32290430 33100353 33880259 33940177 33740143 33360123 32890117 31170132 29850198 29640263 29150284 28890313 29240416 29780470 30400484 31290471 Read more

MD 2340 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2340 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Areas affected...Far east-central NM into the TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232014Z - 232215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A short, low-topped line segment in east-central New Mexico should expand in coverage as it progresses along the northern periphery of the surface-based instability plume. A brief, weak tornado and sporadic wind gusts of 45-60 mph will be possible. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance in this region is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A narrow short-line, low-topped segment around 110 km in length as of 20Z should increase in areal extent as it impinges on the northern periphery of the weak buoyancy plume characterized by 500-1000 J/kg from the TX South Plains to the Pecos Valley. Immediately ahead of this line, surface dew points remain 5-8 F lower across the remainder of east-central NM before increasing into northwest TX. However, surface temperatures have struggled to budge beyond the mid to upper 50s across northwest TX amid downstream rain/clouds within the low-level warm conveyor. Despite this instability profile, VWP data from FDX indicates low-level backing immediately ahead of the line, resulting in an enlarging low-level hodograph. Given the otherwise favorable deep-layer southwesterly shear profile, attempts at mesovortex formation should occur capable of producing sporadic strong gusts and a brief tornado. ..Grams/Hart.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34820388 35420300 35810195 35940135 35890087 35590040 35220028 34790041 34490062 34270106 34130174 34090277 33940370 34820388 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more