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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A localized severe thunderstorm risk is possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough pivoting northeast across the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast. An extensive rain shield is located immediately ahead of the trough over the central Gulf Coast/lower MS Valley. Although the primary surface low is forecast to develop from northeast OK into the lower MO Valley tonight, a secondary area of low pressure is forecast to develop from southeast LA into MS/AL during the overnight on the northern periphery of the more appreciably modified-Gulf airmass. It remains possible storm development will occur this evening over southeast LA and move downstream into parts of southern MS/AL. Although the incipient severe risk is conditional upon robust storm development (substantial airmass modification will need to occur based on the 00z Slidell, LA 00z raob; 0 J/kg MUCAPE), will continue with the low probability highlight for a brief tornado/localized severe gust late this evening into the overnight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the East and areas from the High Plains westward to the West Coast. ..Smith.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A localized severe thunderstorm risk is possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough pivoting northeast across the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast. An extensive rain shield is located immediately ahead of the trough over the central Gulf Coast/lower MS Valley. Although the primary surface low is forecast to develop from northeast OK into the lower MO Valley tonight, a secondary area of low pressure is forecast to develop from southeast LA into MS/AL during the overnight on the northern periphery of the more appreciably modified-Gulf airmass. It remains possible storm development will occur this evening over southeast LA and move downstream into parts of southern MS/AL. Although the incipient severe risk is conditional upon robust storm development (substantial airmass modification will need to occur based on the 00z Slidell, LA 00z raob; 0 J/kg MUCAPE), will continue with the low probability highlight for a brief tornado/localized severe gust late this evening into the overnight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the East and areas from the High Plains westward to the West Coast. ..Smith.. 12/25/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 24 22:23:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 24 22:23:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. On D3/Tue, a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow trailing an expansive midlevel cyclone over the central CONUS will overspread the southern High Plains, where a warming/drying post-frontal air mass will be in place. This will favor dry/breezy conditions over portions of southeast NM into West TX; however, recent rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns here. On D4/Wed, strong deep-layer westerly flow on the southern periphery of the midlevel cyclone will overlay portions of the Lower MS Valley, where marginal afternoon RH reductions are expected. While this area is experiencing extreme drought and dry fuels, ongoing accumulating rainfall should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, the strong flow aloft accompanying the eastward-advancing cyclone will remain in place over much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A tightening offshore pressure gradient and shallow mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty surface winds across the region on D5-D6/Thursday-Friday. With that said, marginal RH reductions and additional rainfall should also limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. On D3/Tue, a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow trailing an expansive midlevel cyclone over the central CONUS will overspread the southern High Plains, where a warming/drying post-frontal air mass will be in place. This will favor dry/breezy conditions over portions of southeast NM into West TX; however, recent rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns here. On D4/Wed, strong deep-layer westerly flow on the southern periphery of the midlevel cyclone will overlay portions of the Lower MS Valley, where marginal afternoon RH reductions are expected. While this area is experiencing extreme drought and dry fuels, ongoing accumulating rainfall should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, the strong flow aloft accompanying the eastward-advancing cyclone will remain in place over much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A tightening offshore pressure gradient and shallow mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty surface winds across the region on D5-D6/Thursday-Friday. With that said, marginal RH reductions and additional rainfall should also limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. On D3/Tue, a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow trailing an expansive midlevel cyclone over the central CONUS will overspread the southern High Plains, where a warming/drying post-frontal air mass will be in place. This will favor dry/breezy conditions over portions of southeast NM into West TX; however, recent rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns here. On D4/Wed, strong deep-layer westerly flow on the southern periphery of the midlevel cyclone will overlay portions of the Lower MS Valley, where marginal afternoon RH reductions are expected. While this area is experiencing extreme drought and dry fuels, ongoing accumulating rainfall should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, the strong flow aloft accompanying the eastward-advancing cyclone will remain in place over much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A tightening offshore pressure gradient and shallow mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty surface winds across the region on D5-D6/Thursday-Friday. With that said, marginal RH reductions and additional rainfall should also limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. On D3/Tue, a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow trailing an expansive midlevel cyclone over the central CONUS will overspread the southern High Plains, where a warming/drying post-frontal air mass will be in place. This will favor dry/breezy conditions over portions of southeast NM into West TX; however, recent rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns here. On D4/Wed, strong deep-layer westerly flow on the southern periphery of the midlevel cyclone will overlay portions of the Lower MS Valley, where marginal afternoon RH reductions are expected. While this area is experiencing extreme drought and dry fuels, ongoing accumulating rainfall should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, the strong flow aloft accompanying the eastward-advancing cyclone will remain in place over much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A tightening offshore pressure gradient and shallow mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty surface winds across the region on D5-D6/Thursday-Friday. With that said, marginal RH reductions and additional rainfall should also limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf, this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf, this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf, this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. Read more