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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A broad zone of low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to encompass the western U.S. today, and will expand eastward into the Plains tonight. Farther east, an eastern U.S. trough will continue departing into the western Atlantic, while ridging shifts eastward in its wake, and ahead of the expanding western U.S. cyclonic flow. At the surface, an expansive surface high will prevail over the eastern half of the country, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. As western U.S. troughing advances eastward, including a lead short wave that will cross the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico through the period, low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains. Northward transport of higher theta-e low-level air will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas, mainly tonight. Farther west, smaller cyclonic disturbances will continue spreading eastward/inland, which -- coupled with abundant Pacific moisture -- will result in widespread precipitation. While instability should remain weak at best, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. In all areas, severe storms are not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A broad zone of low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to encompass the western U.S. today, and will expand eastward into the Plains tonight. Farther east, an eastern U.S. trough will continue departing into the western Atlantic, while ridging shifts eastward in its wake, and ahead of the expanding western U.S. cyclonic flow. At the surface, an expansive surface high will prevail over the eastern half of the country, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. As western U.S. troughing advances eastward, including a lead short wave that will cross the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico through the period, low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains. Northward transport of higher theta-e low-level air will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas, mainly tonight. Farther west, smaller cyclonic disturbances will continue spreading eastward/inland, which -- coupled with abundant Pacific moisture -- will result in widespread precipitation. While instability should remain weak at best, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. In all areas, severe storms are not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A broad zone of low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to encompass the western U.S. today, and will expand eastward into the Plains tonight. Farther east, an eastern U.S. trough will continue departing into the western Atlantic, while ridging shifts eastward in its wake, and ahead of the expanding western U.S. cyclonic flow. At the surface, an expansive surface high will prevail over the eastern half of the country, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. As western U.S. troughing advances eastward, including a lead short wave that will cross the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico through the period, low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains. Northward transport of higher theta-e low-level air will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas, mainly tonight. Farther west, smaller cyclonic disturbances will continue spreading eastward/inland, which -- coupled with abundant Pacific moisture -- will result in widespread precipitation. While instability should remain weak at best, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. In all areas, severe storms are not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A broad zone of low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to encompass the western U.S. today, and will expand eastward into the Plains tonight. Farther east, an eastern U.S. trough will continue departing into the western Atlantic, while ridging shifts eastward in its wake, and ahead of the expanding western U.S. cyclonic flow. At the surface, an expansive surface high will prevail over the eastern half of the country, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. As western U.S. troughing advances eastward, including a lead short wave that will cross the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico through the period, low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains. Northward transport of higher theta-e low-level air will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas, mainly tonight. Farther west, smaller cyclonic disturbances will continue spreading eastward/inland, which -- coupled with abundant Pacific moisture -- will result in widespread precipitation. While instability should remain weak at best, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. In all areas, severe storms are not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A broad zone of low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to encompass the western U.S. today, and will expand eastward into the Plains tonight. Farther east, an eastern U.S. trough will continue departing into the western Atlantic, while ridging shifts eastward in its wake, and ahead of the expanding western U.S. cyclonic flow. At the surface, an expansive surface high will prevail over the eastern half of the country, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. As western U.S. troughing advances eastward, including a lead short wave that will cross the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico through the period, low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains. Northward transport of higher theta-e low-level air will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas, mainly tonight. Farther west, smaller cyclonic disturbances will continue spreading eastward/inland, which -- coupled with abundant Pacific moisture -- will result in widespread precipitation. While instability should remain weak at best, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. In all areas, severe storms are not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/21/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... On Wednesday and Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from northern Mexico to the mid Mississippi Valley, becoming considerably less amplified with time. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front on Wednesday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place with scattered thunderstorms developing across much of the region. As the front progresses eastward Wednesday night and Thursday, model forecasts suggest that a line could gradually organize in the central Gulf Coast states. An isolated severe threat would be possible as cell coverage and low-level moisture gradually increase, but the greatest threat will probably be confined to areas near the Gulf Coast where instability is forecast to be the strongest. At this time, model forecast parameters suggest any severe threat will remain localized at best. On Friday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast across the Southeast, as an upper-level trough moves toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will again be possible Friday afternoon along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of a localized severe threat over parts of the Florida Panhandle. However, differences in model solutions suggest uncertainty is substantial. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, a strong mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place in the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the jet within the moist airmass. However, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak across the region suggesting that any potential severe threat will remain relatively confined. Uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of any severe threat on Saturday, mainly due to model differences regarding the timing of the upper-level trough and the strength of moisture return. The potential for thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as a large area of surface high pressure moves into the central and eastern U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... On Wednesday and Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from northern Mexico to the mid Mississippi Valley, becoming considerably less amplified with time. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front on Wednesday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place with scattered thunderstorms developing across much of the region. As the front progresses eastward Wednesday night and Thursday, model forecasts suggest that a line could gradually organize in the central Gulf Coast states. An isolated severe threat would be possible as cell coverage and low-level moisture gradually increase, but the greatest threat will probably be confined to areas near the Gulf Coast where instability is forecast to be the strongest. At this time, model forecast parameters suggest any severe threat will remain localized at best. On Friday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast across the Southeast, as an upper-level trough moves toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will again be possible Friday afternoon along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of a localized severe threat over parts of the Florida Panhandle. However, differences in model solutions suggest uncertainty is substantial. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, a strong mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place in the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the jet within the moist airmass. However, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak across the region suggesting that any potential severe threat will remain relatively confined. Uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of any severe threat on Saturday, mainly due to model differences regarding the timing of the upper-level trough and the strength of moisture return. The potential for thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as a large area of surface high pressure moves into the central and eastern U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... On Wednesday and Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from northern Mexico to the mid Mississippi Valley, becoming considerably less amplified with time. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front on Wednesday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place with scattered thunderstorms developing across much of the region. As the front progresses eastward Wednesday night and Thursday, model forecasts suggest that a line could gradually organize in the central Gulf Coast states. An isolated severe threat would be possible as cell coverage and low-level moisture gradually increase, but the greatest threat will probably be confined to areas near the Gulf Coast where instability is forecast to be the strongest. At this time, model forecast parameters suggest any severe threat will remain localized at best. On Friday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast across the Southeast, as an upper-level trough moves toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will again be possible Friday afternoon along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of a localized severe threat over parts of the Florida Panhandle. However, differences in model solutions suggest uncertainty is substantial. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, a strong mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place in the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the jet within the moist airmass. However, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak across the region suggesting that any potential severe threat will remain relatively confined. Uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of any severe threat on Saturday, mainly due to model differences regarding the timing of the upper-level trough and the strength of moisture return. The potential for thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as a large area of surface high pressure moves into the central and eastern U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... On Wednesday and Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from northern Mexico to the mid Mississippi Valley, becoming considerably less amplified with time. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front on Wednesday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place with scattered thunderstorms developing across much of the region. As the front progresses eastward Wednesday night and Thursday, model forecasts suggest that a line could gradually organize in the central Gulf Coast states. An isolated severe threat would be possible as cell coverage and low-level moisture gradually increase, but the greatest threat will probably be confined to areas near the Gulf Coast where instability is forecast to be the strongest. At this time, model forecast parameters suggest any severe threat will remain localized at best. On Friday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast across the Southeast, as an upper-level trough moves toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will again be possible Friday afternoon along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of a localized severe threat over parts of the Florida Panhandle. However, differences in model solutions suggest uncertainty is substantial. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, a strong mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place in the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the jet within the moist airmass. However, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak across the region suggesting that any potential severe threat will remain relatively confined. Uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of any severe threat on Saturday, mainly due to model differences regarding the timing of the upper-level trough and the strength of moisture return. The potential for thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as a large area of surface high pressure moves into the central and eastern U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... On Wednesday and Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from northern Mexico to the mid Mississippi Valley, becoming considerably less amplified with time. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front on Wednesday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place with scattered thunderstorms developing across much of the region. As the front progresses eastward Wednesday night and Thursday, model forecasts suggest that a line could gradually organize in the central Gulf Coast states. An isolated severe threat would be possible as cell coverage and low-level moisture gradually increase, but the greatest threat will probably be confined to areas near the Gulf Coast where instability is forecast to be the strongest. At this time, model forecast parameters suggest any severe threat will remain localized at best. On Friday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast across the Southeast, as an upper-level trough moves toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will again be possible Friday afternoon along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of a localized severe threat over parts of the Florida Panhandle. However, differences in model solutions suggest uncertainty is substantial. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, a strong mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place in the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the jet within the moist airmass. However, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak across the region suggesting that any potential severe threat will remain relatively confined. Uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of any severe threat on Saturday, mainly due to model differences regarding the timing of the upper-level trough and the strength of moisture return. The potential for thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as a large area of surface high pressure moves into the central and eastern U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... On Wednesday and Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from northern Mexico to the mid Mississippi Valley, becoming considerably less amplified with time. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front on Wednesday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place with scattered thunderstorms developing across much of the region. As the front progresses eastward Wednesday night and Thursday, model forecasts suggest that a line could gradually organize in the central Gulf Coast states. An isolated severe threat would be possible as cell coverage and low-level moisture gradually increase, but the greatest threat will probably be confined to areas near the Gulf Coast where instability is forecast to be the strongest. At this time, model forecast parameters suggest any severe threat will remain localized at best. On Friday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast across the Southeast, as an upper-level trough moves toward the southern Plains. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will again be possible Friday afternoon along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of a localized severe threat over parts of the Florida Panhandle. However, differences in model solutions suggest uncertainty is substantial. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, a strong mid-level jet is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Ahead of this feature, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place in the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the jet within the moist airmass. However, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak across the region suggesting that any potential severe threat will remain relatively confined. Uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of any severe threat on Saturday, mainly due to model differences regarding the timing of the upper-level trough and the strength of moisture return. The potential for thunderstorms is expected to decrease on Sunday as a large area of surface high pressure moves into the central and eastern U.S. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southern and central Texas eastward to the Texas coast. ...South-central Texas/Texas Coastal Plain... Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S., as a trough moves through the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain, where moderate instability may develop during the day. Model forecasts differ on how far inland this moist airmass will be, with the ECMWF and GFS taking positions much further west than the NAM. The ECMWF is furthest west, with 60+ surface dewpoints over much of south-central Texas. Of the deterministic solutions, the ECMWF is the most favorable for a severe threat with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear in place by midday, suggesting that a marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible. The threat would gradually transition eastward from south-central Texas to the Texas Coast by Tuesday evening. Although the ECMWF shows an environment that could support a severe threat, other solutions are less favorable. Due to the uncertainty associated with relatively large model differences, a marginal risk appears to be appropriate at this time. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southern and central Texas eastward to the Texas coast. ...South-central Texas/Texas Coastal Plain... Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S., as a trough moves through the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain, where moderate instability may develop during the day. Model forecasts differ on how far inland this moist airmass will be, with the ECMWF and GFS taking positions much further west than the NAM. The ECMWF is furthest west, with 60+ surface dewpoints over much of south-central Texas. Of the deterministic solutions, the ECMWF is the most favorable for a severe threat with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear in place by midday, suggesting that a marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible. The threat would gradually transition eastward from south-central Texas to the Texas Coast by Tuesday evening. Although the ECMWF shows an environment that could support a severe threat, other solutions are less favorable. Due to the uncertainty associated with relatively large model differences, a marginal risk appears to be appropriate at this time. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southern and central Texas eastward to the Texas coast. ...South-central Texas/Texas Coastal Plain... Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S., as a trough moves through the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain, where moderate instability may develop during the day. Model forecasts differ on how far inland this moist airmass will be, with the ECMWF and GFS taking positions much further west than the NAM. The ECMWF is furthest west, with 60+ surface dewpoints over much of south-central Texas. Of the deterministic solutions, the ECMWF is the most favorable for a severe threat with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear in place by midday, suggesting that a marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible. The threat would gradually transition eastward from south-central Texas to the Texas Coast by Tuesday evening. Although the ECMWF shows an environment that could support a severe threat, other solutions are less favorable. Due to the uncertainty associated with relatively large model differences, a marginal risk appears to be appropriate at this time. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southern and central Texas eastward to the Texas coast. ...South-central Texas/Texas Coastal Plain... Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S., as a trough moves through the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain, where moderate instability may develop during the day. Model forecasts differ on how far inland this moist airmass will be, with the ECMWF and GFS taking positions much further west than the NAM. The ECMWF is furthest west, with 60+ surface dewpoints over much of south-central Texas. Of the deterministic solutions, the ECMWF is the most favorable for a severe threat with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear in place by midday, suggesting that a marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible. The threat would gradually transition eastward from south-central Texas to the Texas Coast by Tuesday evening. Although the ECMWF shows an environment that could support a severe threat, other solutions are less favorable. Due to the uncertainty associated with relatively large model differences, a marginal risk appears to be appropriate at this time. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southern and central Texas eastward to the Texas coast. ...South-central Texas/Texas Coastal Plain... Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S., as a trough moves through the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain, where moderate instability may develop during the day. Model forecasts differ on how far inland this moist airmass will be, with the ECMWF and GFS taking positions much further west than the NAM. The ECMWF is furthest west, with 60+ surface dewpoints over much of south-central Texas. Of the deterministic solutions, the ECMWF is the most favorable for a severe threat with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear in place by midday, suggesting that a marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible. The threat would gradually transition eastward from south-central Texas to the Texas Coast by Tuesday evening. Although the ECMWF shows an environment that could support a severe threat, other solutions are less favorable. Due to the uncertainty associated with relatively large model differences, a marginal risk appears to be appropriate at this time. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southern and central Texas eastward to the Texas coast. ...South-central Texas/Texas Coastal Plain... Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S., as a trough moves through the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain, where moderate instability may develop during the day. Model forecasts differ on how far inland this moist airmass will be, with the ECMWF and GFS taking positions much further west than the NAM. The ECMWF is furthest west, with 60+ surface dewpoints over much of south-central Texas. Of the deterministic solutions, the ECMWF is the most favorable for a severe threat with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear in place by midday, suggesting that a marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible. The threat would gradually transition eastward from south-central Texas to the Texas Coast by Tuesday evening. Although the ECMWF shows an environment that could support a severe threat, other solutions are less favorable. Due to the uncertainty associated with relatively large model differences, a marginal risk appears to be appropriate at this time. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of California and southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains. In response, moisture advection associated with a broad low-level jet, will take place across the Texas and Louisiana coastal plains. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south and central Texas. Convective coverage is expected to increase as a cluster of storms moves eastward to near the Texas coast during the afternoon. The storm cluster is forecast to move into southern Louisiana by the late evening and overnight period. Instability should remain very weak inland across the western Gulf Coast states suggesting that the potential for organized storms will remain minimal. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of California and southwest Arizona as an upper-level trough approaches. No severe threat is expected with this activity. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of California and southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains. In response, moisture advection associated with a broad low-level jet, will take place across the Texas and Louisiana coastal plains. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south and central Texas. Convective coverage is expected to increase as a cluster of storms moves eastward to near the Texas coast during the afternoon. The storm cluster is forecast to move into southern Louisiana by the late evening and overnight period. Instability should remain very weak inland across the western Gulf Coast states suggesting that the potential for organized storms will remain minimal. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of California and southwest Arizona as an upper-level trough approaches. No severe threat is expected with this activity. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of California and southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains. In response, moisture advection associated with a broad low-level jet, will take place across the Texas and Louisiana coastal plains. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south and central Texas. Convective coverage is expected to increase as a cluster of storms moves eastward to near the Texas coast during the afternoon. The storm cluster is forecast to move into southern Louisiana by the late evening and overnight period. Instability should remain very weak inland across the western Gulf Coast states suggesting that the potential for organized storms will remain minimal. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of California and southwest Arizona as an upper-level trough approaches. No severe threat is expected with this activity. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more