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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A very strong upper low will develop across the Great Lakes on Wednesday which will bring a dry and cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS. Dry and breezy conditions will also be present for much of the Plains, but temperatures will be cool and fuels will be moist which should limit the large fire threat. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Severe Storms

1 year 5 months ago

SPC MD 337

Severe Storms

1 year 5 months ago

MD 0337 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 70... FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas and northeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70... Valid 020532Z - 020700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may sporadically produce hail and locally damaging gusts in the short term. Overall risk is expected to diminish with time and eastward extent overnight. DISCUSSION...A line of convection will continue to shift east/northeast across parts of northwest AR the next few hours. More isolated convection is expected with southward extent along an eastward-advancing cold front across southeast OK into northeast TX and southwest AR. Low-level shear has increased considerably tonight across AR as is evident in KSRX and KLZK VWPs. This typically would support organized severe convection. However, the thermodynamic environment will be marginal for maintenance of robust convection. Capping and increasing low-level inhibition will preclude surface-based storms the remainder of the night. While sporadic strong to severe storms may result in hail and locally strong gusts in the short-term, the overall risk is expected to diminish with time and eastward extent. As such, a new watch is not currently expected downstream from WW 70. However a local temporal extension may be needed. ..Leitman.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35969276 33379374 33049422 32859511 32859570 32979631 33379642 33999634 35319554 36349439 36499417 36509307 35969276 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Severe Storms

1 year 5 months ago

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with wind damage and hail, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, with a second severe threat area expected over the Florida Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic... A large upper-level low pressure system will move eastward into the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday, as a cold front advances quickly eastward through the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will likely be in place across the Carolinas into southeastern Virginia, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass, weak instability is expected to develop in most areas during the late morning and early afternoon. While some convection is expected near the front early in the period, new surface-based thunderstorms should develop along and near the moist axis around midday. These storms will likely move eastward across parts of Maryland, eastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. Forecast soundings during the afternoon along and near the moist axis have extreme deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear actually reaching 90 to 100 knots by 21Z. As low-level lapse rates steepen during the day, convection should be able to mix the stronger flow down to the surface, creating a potential for wind damage. The more intense cells could also be associated with an isolated large hail threat, aided by cold temperatures aloft. ...Florida Peninsula... Mid-level flow is forecast to be west-southwesterly across the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. A 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move into the western Carolinas, as a cold front advances southward across the northern Florida Peninsula. The entrance region of the mid-level jet is forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday afternoon, strengthening lift and shear across the Florida Peninsula. As storms organize ahead of the front and move eastward across the central Florida Peninsula, the strong deep-layer shear may be enough to support a wind-damage threat with the more intense cells embedded in the convective line. Any severe threat should be the greatest during the mid to late afternoon, as low-level lapse rates become the steepest. A marginal hail threat is also expected. ..Broyles.. 04/02/2024 Read more