Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more