Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Initial surge of a cold, continental airmass will likely have pushed through much of the CONUS early Saturday morning, with the associated cold front expected to extend from just off the East Coast through the central FL Peninsula. Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across central and southern FL, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible within the vicinity of this front continues southeastward throughout the day. Generally anafrontal character to this front should keep thunderstorms elevated. This elevated character coupled with poor lapse rates should limit the severe potential, despite fairly robust deep-layer vertical shear. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS as an Arctic airmass surges southward, reinforcing the already cold and dry airmass in place. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Initial surge of a cold, continental airmass will likely have pushed through much of the CONUS early Saturday morning, with the associated cold front expected to extend from just off the East Coast through the central FL Peninsula. Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across central and southern FL, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible within the vicinity of this front continues southeastward throughout the day. Generally anafrontal character to this front should keep thunderstorms elevated. This elevated character coupled with poor lapse rates should limit the severe potential, despite fairly robust deep-layer vertical shear. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS as an Arctic airmass surges southward, reinforcing the already cold and dry airmass in place. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Initial surge of a cold, continental airmass will likely have pushed through much of the CONUS early Saturday morning, with the associated cold front expected to extend from just off the East Coast through the central FL Peninsula. Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across central and southern FL, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible within the vicinity of this front continues southeastward throughout the day. Generally anafrontal character to this front should keep thunderstorms elevated. This elevated character coupled with poor lapse rates should limit the severe potential, despite fairly robust deep-layer vertical shear. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS as an Arctic airmass surges southward, reinforcing the already cold and dry airmass in place. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Initial surge of a cold, continental airmass will likely have pushed through much of the CONUS early Saturday morning, with the associated cold front expected to extend from just off the East Coast through the central FL Peninsula. Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across central and southern FL, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible within the vicinity of this front continues southeastward throughout the day. Generally anafrontal character to this front should keep thunderstorms elevated. This elevated character coupled with poor lapse rates should limit the severe potential, despite fairly robust deep-layer vertical shear. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS as an Arctic airmass surges southward, reinforcing the already cold and dry airmass in place. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Initial surge of a cold, continental airmass will likely have pushed through much of the CONUS early Saturday morning, with the associated cold front expected to extend from just off the East Coast through the central FL Peninsula. Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across central and southern FL, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible within the vicinity of this front continues southeastward throughout the day. Generally anafrontal character to this front should keep thunderstorms elevated. This elevated character coupled with poor lapse rates should limit the severe potential, despite fairly robust deep-layer vertical shear. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS as an Arctic airmass surges southward, reinforcing the already cold and dry airmass in place. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Initial surge of a cold, continental airmass will likely have pushed through much of the CONUS early Saturday morning, with the associated cold front expected to extend from just off the East Coast through the central FL Peninsula. Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across central and southern FL, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible within the vicinity of this front continues southeastward throughout the day. Generally anafrontal character to this front should keep thunderstorms elevated. This elevated character coupled with poor lapse rates should limit the severe potential, despite fairly robust deep-layer vertical shear. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS as an Arctic airmass surges southward, reinforcing the already cold and dry airmass in place. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Initial surge of a cold, continental airmass will likely have pushed through much of the CONUS early Saturday morning, with the associated cold front expected to extend from just off the East Coast through the central FL Peninsula. Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across central and southern FL, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible within the vicinity of this front continues southeastward throughout the day. Generally anafrontal character to this front should keep thunderstorms elevated. This elevated character coupled with poor lapse rates should limit the severe potential, despite fairly robust deep-layer vertical shear. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS as an Arctic airmass surges southward, reinforcing the already cold and dry airmass in place. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 Read more

Coffeyville approved a plan to extend its water services to Caney, a small community that declared a state of emergency in 2023, due to its extremely low water supplies. Coffeyville will be selling 250,000 gallons of water to Caney daily. The construction of 15 miles of pipeline to connect the two towns’ water supplies is expected to cost $8 million and take 18 to 24 months. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Jan 12, 2024

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more