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WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW CMH TO 20 ENE CMH TO 15 NNE ZZV TO 35 NE ZZV TO 30 SSE CAK TO 20 E CAK. ..BENTLEY..03/30/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-029-045-049-059-067-081-089-111-115-119-121-127-167- 302340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA FAIRFIELD FRANKLIN GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON LICKING MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY WASHINGTON WVC009-017-029-033-051-069-073-085-095-103-107-302340- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKE DODDRIDGE HANCOCK HARRISON MARSHALL OHIO PLEASANTS RITCHIE TYLER WETZEL WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0313 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL IN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0313 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Areas affected...Far East-Central IN into Central/Southern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302027Z - 302300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail (1" to 1.75") and/or damaging gusts (from 40 to 60 mph) are possible this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a low over north-central OH (about 30 miles east-northeast of FDY). A warm front extends east-southeastward from this low across southeast OH into far northern WV. A modest surface trough also extends southwestward from this low across central IN and central IL. Filtered heating in the wake of the early morning cloud cover has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 60s/low 70s within the warm sector south/southwest of the warm front and to the east of the surface troughing. Low-level moisture remains modest, with dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even though the low-level thermodynamic conditions are relatively modest, these conditions combined cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) and associated steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to air mass destabilization. This destabilization is verified by increasingly agitated cumulus just ahead of the surface trough over far east-central IN and far western OH. Given the veered low-level flow, convergence along the boundary is limited. However, ascent along the boundary will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to a fast-moving shortwave embedded within the strong westerly flow aloft. This combination of ascent and destabilization will likely result in convective initiation. Buoyancy will be modest, but deep-layer vertical shear will be strong. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear across the region. As such, any deeper updrafts could become organized, capable of producing large hail (1" to 1.75") and/or damaging wind gusts (40 to 60 mph this afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40828361 40618083 39268057 38738137 38618264 38898430 40018520 40828361 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0063 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0063 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 30 20:29:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated/brief tornado will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. Little change was required to the ongoing outlook. A focused area of hail potential will develop over eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon near a warm front. While moisture is a bit meager, very cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear will support a few cells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Read more