SPC MD 314

1 year 4 months ago
MD 0314 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST PA AND NORTHERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0314 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern OH into extreme southwest PA and northern WV Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63... Valid 302309Z - 310045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 continues. SUMMARY...Severe hail remains the primary concern with ongoing storms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours while rapidly moving southeast. Local watch extensions may be needed in the next few hours ahead of the more robust storms. DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across portions of central into southeastern OH, which have produced several instances of 1+ inch hail over the past few hours, as well as persistent tracks of 1+ inch MESH tracks per MRMS mosaic radar data. These storms are tracking along the eastern extent of a 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, which also overspreads a surface thermal ridge that is contributing to a well-mixed boundary layer. Both 22Z mesoanalysis and some of the latest regional VADs all depict elongated hodographs well downstream of the ongoing storms. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, additional instances of severe hail are expected into the evening hours. Since there is some appreciable low-level curvature to the hodographs, a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, though very limited low-level moisture should limit the tornado threat. Many of the ongoing storms have forward speeds at or above 40 kts, suggesting that some of these storms may reach the southern and eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 before severe hail potential diminishes. As such, WW spatial extensions may be needed over the next few hours pending convective trends. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN... LAT...LON 39818296 40168134 39998044 39547972 38917981 38538034 38548112 38798217 39028312 39198354 39318370 39818296 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMH TO 10 SW ZZV TO 25 E ZZV TO 15 SW HLG TO 20 SE HLG AND 20 NNE UNI TO 15 S ZZV TO 35 E ZZV TO 20 WNW MGW. ..BENTLEY..03/30/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC111-115-121-167-310040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE MORGAN NOBLE WASHINGTON PAC059-310040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREENE WVC017-033-049-051-061-073-085-095-103-107-310040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODDRIDGE HARRISON MARION MARSHALL MONONGALIA PLEASANTS Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63

1 year 4 months ago
WW 63 SEVERE TSTM OH WV 302045Z - 310200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 63 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and east central Ohio Northern West Virginia and the northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are developing in central Ohio and will spread east-southeastward through late evening. A couple of supercells are expected with the potential to produce large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Columbus OH to 10 miles south southeast of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW CMH TO 20 ENE CMH TO 15 NNE ZZV TO 35 NE ZZV TO 30 SSE CAK TO 20 E CAK. ..BENTLEY..03/30/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-029-045-049-059-067-081-089-111-115-119-121-127-167- 302340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA FAIRFIELD FRANKLIN GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON LICKING MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY WASHINGTON WVC009-017-029-033-051-069-073-085-095-103-107-302340- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKE DODDRIDGE HANCOCK HARRISON MARSHALL OHIO PLEASANTS RITCHIE TYLER WETZEL WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC MD 313

1 year 4 months ago
MD 0313 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL IN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0313 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Areas affected...Far East-Central IN into Central/Southern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302027Z - 302300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail (1" to 1.75") and/or damaging gusts (from 40 to 60 mph) are possible this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a low over north-central OH (about 30 miles east-northeast of FDY). A warm front extends east-southeastward from this low across southeast OH into far northern WV. A modest surface trough also extends southwestward from this low across central IN and central IL. Filtered heating in the wake of the early morning cloud cover has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 60s/low 70s within the warm sector south/southwest of the warm front and to the east of the surface troughing. Low-level moisture remains modest, with dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even though the low-level thermodynamic conditions are relatively modest, these conditions combined cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) and associated steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to air mass destabilization. This destabilization is verified by increasingly agitated cumulus just ahead of the surface trough over far east-central IN and far western OH. Given the veered low-level flow, convergence along the boundary is limited. However, ascent along the boundary will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to a fast-moving shortwave embedded within the strong westerly flow aloft. This combination of ascent and destabilization will likely result in convective initiation. Buoyancy will be modest, but deep-layer vertical shear will be strong. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear across the region. As such, any deeper updrafts could become organized, capable of producing large hail (1" to 1.75") and/or damaging wind gusts (40 to 60 mph this afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40828361 40618083 39268057 38738137 38618264 38898430 40018520 40828361 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more