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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front early in the day, and then move offshore during the afternoon. Some of these could be associated with an isolated and marginal severe threat. Additional storms, associated with a severe threat, could develop over parts of the Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. On Wednesday, predictability appears to be too low to add a severe threat area. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... An area of surface high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. on Thursday to the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Dry and cool air, associated with the high pressure system, will likely keep the potential low for thunderstorm development from Thursday to Saturday. On Sunday, low-level moisture return in the wake of the high is forecast to take place across the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough moves through the central U.S. Strong thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat, would be possible ahead of the trough during the afternoon and evening across parts of the central U.S. However, the scenario put forward by some of the models is highly uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front early in the day, and then move offshore during the afternoon. Some of these could be associated with an isolated and marginal severe threat. Additional storms, associated with a severe threat, could develop over parts of the Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. On Wednesday, predictability appears to be too low to add a severe threat area. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... An area of surface high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. on Thursday to the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Dry and cool air, associated with the high pressure system, will likely keep the potential low for thunderstorm development from Thursday to Saturday. On Sunday, low-level moisture return in the wake of the high is forecast to take place across the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough moves through the central U.S. Strong thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat, would be possible ahead of the trough during the afternoon and evening across parts of the central U.S. However, the scenario put forward by some of the models is highly uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front early in the day, and then move offshore during the afternoon. Some of these could be associated with an isolated and marginal severe threat. Additional storms, associated with a severe threat, could develop over parts of the Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. On Wednesday, predictability appears to be too low to add a severe threat area. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... An area of surface high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. on Thursday to the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Dry and cool air, associated with the high pressure system, will likely keep the potential low for thunderstorm development from Thursday to Saturday. On Sunday, low-level moisture return in the wake of the high is forecast to take place across the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough moves through the central U.S. Strong thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat, would be possible ahead of the trough during the afternoon and evening across parts of the central U.S. However, the scenario put forward by some of the models is highly uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front early in the day, and then move offshore during the afternoon. Some of these could be associated with an isolated and marginal severe threat. Additional storms, associated with a severe threat, could develop over parts of the Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. On Wednesday, predictability appears to be too low to add a severe threat area. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... An area of surface high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. on Thursday to the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Dry and cool air, associated with the high pressure system, will likely keep the potential low for thunderstorm development from Thursday to Saturday. On Sunday, low-level moisture return in the wake of the high is forecast to take place across the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough moves through the central U.S. Strong thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat, would be possible ahead of the trough during the afternoon and evening across parts of the central U.S. However, the scenario put forward by some of the models is highly uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front early in the day, and then move offshore during the afternoon. Some of these could be associated with an isolated and marginal severe threat. Additional storms, associated with a severe threat, could develop over parts of the Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. On Wednesday, predictability appears to be too low to add a severe threat area. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... An area of surface high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. on Thursday to the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Dry and cool air, associated with the high pressure system, will likely keep the potential low for thunderstorm development from Thursday to Saturday. On Sunday, low-level moisture return in the wake of the high is forecast to take place across the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough moves through the central U.S. Strong thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat, would be possible ahead of the trough during the afternoon and evening across parts of the central U.S. However, the scenario put forward by some of the models is highly uncertain at this extended range. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a front in the Mid-Atlantic. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a front in the Mid-Atlantic. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a front in the Mid-Atlantic. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a front in the Mid-Atlantic. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more