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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-201-239-291-321-339-373-407-471-473- 481-100740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON HARRIS JACKSON LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO WALKER WALLER WHARTON GMZ330-335-350-355-100740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MATAGORDA BAY GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LRD TO 45 ENE COT TO 40 ESE AUS. ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-041-047-051-057-123-131-149-175-177-185-247-249-255- 261-273-285-297-311-355-391-409-469-477-505-100640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZOS BROOKS BURLESON CALHOUN DEWITT DUVAL FAYETTE GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KARNES KENEDY KLEBERG LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WASHINGTON ZAPATA GMZ135-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-100640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LRD TO 45 ENE COT TO 40 ESE AUS. ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-041-047-051-057-123-131-149-175-177-185-247-249-255- 261-273-285-297-311-355-391-409-469-477-505-100640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZOS BROOKS BURLESON CALHOUN DEWITT DUVAL FAYETTE GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KARNES KENEDY KLEBERG LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WASHINGTON ZAPATA GMZ135-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-100640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more