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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... As one shortwave trough moves from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, a trailing shortwave will move from the central Rockies into the central/northern Great Plains. A cold front associated with the trailing shortwave will move southeastward across parts of NE/KS, as a weak surface wave from eastern CO toward the lower MO Valley by Friday night into Saturday morning. Farther south, a belt of modest midlevel southwesterly flow will remain in place across TX/OK. ...TX South Plains into the Concho Valley vicinity... In the wake of extensive convection on D1/Thursday, rich low-level moisture may be transported somewhat farther west compared to previous days, along/south of an outflow boundary that may tend to move slowly northward through the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear will again support isolated to widely scattered supercell development during the afternoon/evening. Very large hail will likely be the primary hazard, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. While low-level shear will not be particularly strong, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out near the outflow boundary, especially if sufficient modification occurs north of the boundary during the afternoon. ...Central Great Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles... In the wake of a midweek frontal passage, the opportunity for moisture return will be relatively limited across parts of the central Plains, in advance of the approaching front. However, relatively cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg by peak heating. Residual capping may tend to prevent initiation until the cold front moves into the region by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters could support a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a larger QLCS will be possible as convection moves east-southeastward, with some potential for isolated severe gusts and hail continuing overnight. Lingering uncertainty regarding buoyancy with northward extent precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... As one shortwave trough moves from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, a trailing shortwave will move from the central Rockies into the central/northern Great Plains. A cold front associated with the trailing shortwave will move southeastward across parts of NE/KS, as a weak surface wave from eastern CO toward the lower MO Valley by Friday night into Saturday morning. Farther south, a belt of modest midlevel southwesterly flow will remain in place across TX/OK. ...TX South Plains into the Concho Valley vicinity... In the wake of extensive convection on D1/Thursday, rich low-level moisture may be transported somewhat farther west compared to previous days, along/south of an outflow boundary that may tend to move slowly northward through the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear will again support isolated to widely scattered supercell development during the afternoon/evening. Very large hail will likely be the primary hazard, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. While low-level shear will not be particularly strong, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out near the outflow boundary, especially if sufficient modification occurs north of the boundary during the afternoon. ...Central Great Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles... In the wake of a midweek frontal passage, the opportunity for moisture return will be relatively limited across parts of the central Plains, in advance of the approaching front. However, relatively cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg by peak heating. Residual capping may tend to prevent initiation until the cold front moves into the region by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters could support a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a larger QLCS will be possible as convection moves east-southeastward, with some potential for isolated severe gusts and hail continuing overnight. Lingering uncertainty regarding buoyancy with northward extent precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... As one shortwave trough moves from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, a trailing shortwave will move from the central Rockies into the central/northern Great Plains. A cold front associated with the trailing shortwave will move southeastward across parts of NE/KS, as a weak surface wave from eastern CO toward the lower MO Valley by Friday night into Saturday morning. Farther south, a belt of modest midlevel southwesterly flow will remain in place across TX/OK. ...TX South Plains into the Concho Valley vicinity... In the wake of extensive convection on D1/Thursday, rich low-level moisture may be transported somewhat farther west compared to previous days, along/south of an outflow boundary that may tend to move slowly northward through the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear will again support isolated to widely scattered supercell development during the afternoon/evening. Very large hail will likely be the primary hazard, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. While low-level shear will not be particularly strong, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out near the outflow boundary, especially if sufficient modification occurs north of the boundary during the afternoon. ...Central Great Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles... In the wake of a midweek frontal passage, the opportunity for moisture return will be relatively limited across parts of the central Plains, in advance of the approaching front. However, relatively cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg by peak heating. Residual capping may tend to prevent initiation until the cold front moves into the region by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters could support a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a larger QLCS will be possible as convection moves east-southeastward, with some potential for isolated severe gusts and hail continuing overnight. Lingering uncertainty regarding buoyancy with northward extent precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... As one shortwave trough moves from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, a trailing shortwave will move from the central Rockies into the central/northern Great Plains. A cold front associated with the trailing shortwave will move southeastward across parts of NE/KS, as a weak surface wave from eastern CO toward the lower MO Valley by Friday night into Saturday morning. Farther south, a belt of modest midlevel southwesterly flow will remain in place across TX/OK. ...TX South Plains into the Concho Valley vicinity... In the wake of extensive convection on D1/Thursday, rich low-level moisture may be transported somewhat farther west compared to previous days, along/south of an outflow boundary that may tend to move slowly northward through the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear will again support isolated to widely scattered supercell development during the afternoon/evening. Very large hail will likely be the primary hazard, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. While low-level shear will not be particularly strong, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out near the outflow boundary, especially if sufficient modification occurs north of the boundary during the afternoon. ...Central Great Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles... In the wake of a midweek frontal passage, the opportunity for moisture return will be relatively limited across parts of the central Plains, in advance of the approaching front. However, relatively cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg by peak heating. Residual capping may tend to prevent initiation until the cold front moves into the region by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters could support a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a larger QLCS will be possible as convection moves east-southeastward, with some potential for isolated severe gusts and hail continuing overnight. Lingering uncertainty regarding buoyancy with northward extent precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... As one shortwave trough moves from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, a trailing shortwave will move from the central Rockies into the central/northern Great Plains. A cold front associated with the trailing shortwave will move southeastward across parts of NE/KS, as a weak surface wave from eastern CO toward the lower MO Valley by Friday night into Saturday morning. Farther south, a belt of modest midlevel southwesterly flow will remain in place across TX/OK. ...TX South Plains into the Concho Valley vicinity... In the wake of extensive convection on D1/Thursday, rich low-level moisture may be transported somewhat farther west compared to previous days, along/south of an outflow boundary that may tend to move slowly northward through the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear will again support isolated to widely scattered supercell development during the afternoon/evening. Very large hail will likely be the primary hazard, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. While low-level shear will not be particularly strong, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out near the outflow boundary, especially if sufficient modification occurs north of the boundary during the afternoon. ...Central Great Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles... In the wake of a midweek frontal passage, the opportunity for moisture return will be relatively limited across parts of the central Plains, in advance of the approaching front. However, relatively cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg by peak heating. Residual capping may tend to prevent initiation until the cold front moves into the region by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters could support a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a larger QLCS will be possible as convection moves east-southeastward, with some potential for isolated severe gusts and hail continuing overnight. Lingering uncertainty regarding buoyancy with northward extent precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... As one shortwave trough moves from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, a trailing shortwave will move from the central Rockies into the central/northern Great Plains. A cold front associated with the trailing shortwave will move southeastward across parts of NE/KS, as a weak surface wave from eastern CO toward the lower MO Valley by Friday night into Saturday morning. Farther south, a belt of modest midlevel southwesterly flow will remain in place across TX/OK. ...TX South Plains into the Concho Valley vicinity... In the wake of extensive convection on D1/Thursday, rich low-level moisture may be transported somewhat farther west compared to previous days, along/south of an outflow boundary that may tend to move slowly northward through the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear will again support isolated to widely scattered supercell development during the afternoon/evening. Very large hail will likely be the primary hazard, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. While low-level shear will not be particularly strong, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out near the outflow boundary, especially if sufficient modification occurs north of the boundary during the afternoon. ...Central Great Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles... In the wake of a midweek frontal passage, the opportunity for moisture return will be relatively limited across parts of the central Plains, in advance of the approaching front. However, relatively cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg by peak heating. Residual capping may tend to prevent initiation until the cold front moves into the region by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters could support a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a larger QLCS will be possible as convection moves east-southeastward, with some potential for isolated severe gusts and hail continuing overnight. Lingering uncertainty regarding buoyancy with northward extent precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico today, as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Coverage of critical winds speeds still appears too localized at this time to introduce a Critical area. As such, the Elevated was maintained with this outlook, as it covers the threat sufficiently. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, mainly in the lee of terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. ..Hart/Barnes/Lyons.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. ..Hart/Barnes/Lyons.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. ..Hart/Barnes/Lyons.. 05/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. ..Hart/Barnes/Lyons.. 05/02/2024 Read more