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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong trough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D4/Sun-D7/Wed - Southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for several days of strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and a large lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. This pattern will support several days of Critical fire weather conditions. Some dry and breezy conditions may begin as early as Sunday afternoon as stronger mid-level flow emerges across New Mexico ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. The strongest winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday when sustained winds over 30 mph and relative humidity in the single digits appears likely. At this time it appears Wednesday should be the last day of significant fire weather concern as confidence is growing for a strong cold front to surge south across the Plains and bring cooler weather toward the end of next week. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong trough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D4/Sun-D7/Wed - Southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for several days of strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and a large lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. This pattern will support several days of Critical fire weather conditions. Some dry and breezy conditions may begin as early as Sunday afternoon as stronger mid-level flow emerges across New Mexico ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. The strongest winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday when sustained winds over 30 mph and relative humidity in the single digits appears likely. At this time it appears Wednesday should be the last day of significant fire weather concern as confidence is growing for a strong cold front to surge south across the Plains and bring cooler weather toward the end of next week. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong trough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D4/Sun-D7/Wed - Southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for several days of strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and a large lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. This pattern will support several days of Critical fire weather conditions. Some dry and breezy conditions may begin as early as Sunday afternoon as stronger mid-level flow emerges across New Mexico ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. The strongest winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday when sustained winds over 30 mph and relative humidity in the single digits appears likely. At this time it appears Wednesday should be the last day of significant fire weather concern as confidence is growing for a strong cold front to surge south across the Plains and bring cooler weather toward the end of next week. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong trough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D4/Sun-D7/Wed - Southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for several days of strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and a large lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. This pattern will support several days of Critical fire weather conditions. Some dry and breezy conditions may begin as early as Sunday afternoon as stronger mid-level flow emerges across New Mexico ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. The strongest winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday when sustained winds over 30 mph and relative humidity in the single digits appears likely. At this time it appears Wednesday should be the last day of significant fire weather concern as confidence is growing for a strong cold front to surge south across the Plains and bring cooler weather toward the end of next week. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong trough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D4/Sun-D7/Wed - Southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for several days of strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and a large lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. This pattern will support several days of Critical fire weather conditions. Some dry and breezy conditions may begin as early as Sunday afternoon as stronger mid-level flow emerges across New Mexico ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. The strongest winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday when sustained winds over 30 mph and relative humidity in the single digits appears likely. At this time it appears Wednesday should be the last day of significant fire weather concern as confidence is growing for a strong cold front to surge south across the Plains and bring cooler weather toward the end of next week. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong trough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D4/Sun-D7/Wed - Southern High Plains... Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for several days of strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and a large lee cyclone in the central/northern Plains. This pattern will support several days of Critical fire weather conditions. Some dry and breezy conditions may begin as early as Sunday afternoon as stronger mid-level flow emerges across New Mexico ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. The strongest winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday when sustained winds over 30 mph and relative humidity in the single digits appears likely. At this time it appears Wednesday should be the last day of significant fire weather concern as confidence is growing for a strong cold front to surge south across the Plains and bring cooler weather toward the end of next week. ..Bentley.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0606 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Illinois and northern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022007Z - 022200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through this afternoon across portions of northern Illinois and Indiana. A few thunderstorms could produce hail of 1-1.25 inches in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends show an area of deep moist convection developing along a warm front lifting northward across northern Indiana and Illinois. Meanwhile, aloft, a mid to upper level shortwave trough apparent in water vapor imagery now crossing the Dakotas and an associated mid level jet max were progressing east northeastward. Buoyancy behind the warm front will continue to increase through late this afternoon, along with a slow increase in mid to upper flow/deep effective shear via the shortwave trough to the northwest. However, most of the large scale ascent associated with the latter will remain well northwest of the unstable air mass and severe convective coverage is expected to remain rather limited. Some updraft intensification could occur within a few cells that manage to avoid interactions through peak daytime heating. Any of these more robust thunderstorms that manage to develop could briefly become severe. ..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 40418993 42418899 42698886 42778860 42798826 42788814 42718785 42638772 42438760 42308755 42188748 42028716 41798673 41588638 41488607 41198554 40928528 40818479 40388484 40398590 40608695 40638820 40418993 Read more

MD 0605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...parts of northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021907Z - 022130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development, including a couple of evolving supercells with potential to producing large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and perhaps a tornado or two, appears increasingly likely by 4-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...A zone of differential surface heating continues to become better defined across parts of the Texas South Plains into central Texas, with stronger boundary-layer heating and mixing ongoing to the west of air impacted by overnight convection. A weak surface low appears to be developing along this boundary between Childress and Abilene, with a developing area of strengthening warm advection to its east and southeast. This appears to be contributing to ongoing gradually deepening convective development, beneath a plume of warm and capping elevate mixed-layer air. Along and east of a sharpening dryline, to the south of the low, a seasonably moist boundary-layer is becoming characterized by mixed-layer CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. Low-level wind fields are light, but veering with height beneath 25-50 kt flow in the 500-300 mb layer appears to be contributing to sufficient shear for supercells. Although potential mid/upper forcing for thunderstorm development remains unclear, latest model output suggests that lift associated with warm advection, coupled with the approach of convective temperatures, will contribute to increasing probabilities for thunderstorm initiation through 21-23Z. Once this occurs, intensification may be rapid, with stronger storms becoming capable of producing large hail and perhaps posing a risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 31870052 33060048 34210085 34079944 33479900 32899890 31879943 31870052 Read more

MD 0604 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0604 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Northern and central OK...southeast KS...and central MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021842Z - 022045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development will continue through this afternoon across northern OK, far southeastern KS, and central MO. Marginally severe hail up to the size of half dollars (1-1.5 inches) and localized wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with any robust updrafts. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations show a cold front progressing southward into northern OK extending from Lawrence, KS southwestward just through Alva, OK. An MCV over far northeastern OK will continue to slowly advance ENE this afternoon. Linear forcing along the cold front has resulted in enough ascent for a cluster of deep moist convection to develop across SE KS. Further northeast across far eastern KS and central MO, a few more multicell clusters have developed along a weakly forced stationary boundary. As the cold front continues to nudge southward into north central OK, additional linear multicell clusters will likely develop along it, while more widely scattered development persists ahead of the MCV over MO. The environment across the region is not particularly favorable for supercells given inadequate deep layer shear and low buoyancy (widespread cloud cover has persisted through most the day). However, as insulation continues to increase this afternoon and a slow increase in mid to upper flow spreads eastward, some organized updrafts are possible. Convective trends will be monitored for intensification. ..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34979734 35539833 36599809 37979605 38279578 39999449 40589226 40449154 39759141 39249078 38669101 37889165 36289453 34979734 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX... CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas. The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley. ..Dean.. 05/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/ ...TX... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward across west TX. Ample low-level moisture is present to the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Deep layer flow is not particularly strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Have upped hail probabilities in parts of this region. The cluster of storms may grow upscale after dark, building southeastward into central TX. ...OK into Western Great Lakes... A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA. A large shield of prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and eastern IA. Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of strong heating will occur this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Confidence in a more organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this time. Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0177 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more