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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

Mathis draws its water from the same source as Corpus Christi, so the community has adopted the same restrictions and enforcements as Corpus Christi. Non-essential water use is also prohibited. Mathis and other neighboring cities were seeking different water sources to become more resilient and able to withstand drought. KIII-TV (Corpus Christi, Texas), March 13, 2024

The water level of Lake Corpus Christi has fallen below 86 feet, which has triggered a Stage 2-Moderate drought restriction for the City of Alice. The aim is to conserve 15% of total water use. Alice Echo News-Journal (Texas), March 11, 2024

WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 38 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-067-071-109-187-140740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS HANCOCK HENDERSON MCDONOUGH WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-140740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN KSC001-003-005-011-015-019-031-035-037-043-045-049-059-073-087- 091-099-103-107-111-121-125-133-139-177-205-207-209-140740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central Texas. ...Synopsis... Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the mid-level flow across the Southeast. Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and evening. ...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX... Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon. This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of deep-layer vertical shear. Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly. ...Southeast States... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame. Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow, supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of the south-central states into the Midwest. The most likely corridor for severe to occur is from southeast Oklahoma into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A cutoff mid/upper low will evolve from the Great Basin into southern CA by early Friday, while a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the central Great Plains gradually shifts towards the southern Great Lakes. Neutral to weak mid-level height rises should occur between these two waves across the south-central states. ...Northeast TX/eastern OK to the Mid-South... Despite the neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights, a difluent upper flow regime coupled with robust boundary-layer heating along/ahead of an initially slow-moving dryline/cold front should foster scattered early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development from the Ozarks across eastern OK. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely contain supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Upscale growth into multiple linear clusters is expected in the late afternoon to early evening as convection becomes increasingly widespread. Still, semi-discrete convection should develop ahead of this activity within a modest low-level warm-advection regime. While low-level south-southwesterlies should not be uniform, and perhaps not overly strong across the warm sector, they should also strengthen somewhat into the early evening. This setup should foster an uptick in tornado potential as convection spreads across southeast OK to western/northern AR. In time, increasing alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with the expected MCS orientation should further yield a messy/complex convective mode evolution. Embedded supercells and localized bows will support sporadic occurrences for all hazards, although a general downward trend should gradually occur overnight as convection outpaces the surface-based instability plume in the TN Valley vicinity. ...Mid-MS Valley to OH... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front later this morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms, along associated outflow, to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward along the eastern periphery of the instability plume and reach the Mid to Upper OH Valley by afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms should modulate the effective frontal zone for potential mid to late afternoon redevelopment from the Mid-MS Valley towards parts of IN, as well as the degree of destabilization across the region. This lowers confidence in what otherwise appears to be a conditionally favorable setup for supercell clusters. The northeast extension of a steep mid-level lapse-rate plume, coupled with substantial deep-layer shear and hodograph enlargement, will favor risks for a few tornadoes and large to very large hail. For this cycle, have expanded the cat 2-SLGT risk substantially eastward with increased extent of the 5% tornado and sig severe hail areas. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of the south-central states into the Midwest. The most likely corridor for severe to occur is from southeast Oklahoma into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A cutoff mid/upper low will evolve from the Great Basin into southern CA by early Friday, while a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the central Great Plains gradually shifts towards the southern Great Lakes. Neutral to weak mid-level height rises should occur between these two waves across the south-central states. ...Northeast TX/eastern OK to the Mid-South... Despite the neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights, a difluent upper flow regime coupled with robust boundary-layer heating along/ahead of an initially slow-moving dryline/cold front should foster scattered early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development from the Ozarks across eastern OK. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely contain supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Upscale growth into multiple linear clusters is expected in the late afternoon to early evening as convection becomes increasingly widespread. Still, semi-discrete convection should develop ahead of this activity within a modest low-level warm-advection regime. While low-level south-southwesterlies should not be uniform, and perhaps not overly strong across the warm sector, they should also strengthen somewhat into the early evening. This setup should foster an uptick in tornado potential as convection spreads across southeast OK to western/northern AR. In time, increasing alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with the expected MCS orientation should further yield a messy/complex convective mode evolution. Embedded supercells and localized bows will support sporadic occurrences for all hazards, although a general downward trend should gradually occur overnight as convection outpaces the surface-based instability plume in the TN Valley vicinity. ...Mid-MS Valley to OH... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front later this morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms, along associated outflow, to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward along the eastern periphery of the instability plume and reach the Mid to Upper OH Valley by afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms should modulate the effective frontal zone for potential mid to late afternoon redevelopment from the Mid-MS Valley towards parts of IN, as well as the degree of destabilization across the region. This lowers confidence in what otherwise appears to be a conditionally favorable setup for supercell clusters. The northeast extension of a steep mid-level lapse-rate plume, coupled with substantial deep-layer shear and hodograph enlargement, will favor risks for a few tornadoes and large to very large hail. For this cycle, have expanded the cat 2-SLGT risk substantially eastward with increased extent of the 5% tornado and sig severe hail areas. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of the south-central states into the Midwest. The most likely corridor for severe to occur is from southeast Oklahoma into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A cutoff mid/upper low will evolve from the Great Basin into southern CA by early Friday, while a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the central Great Plains gradually shifts towards the southern Great Lakes. Neutral to weak mid-level height rises should occur between these two waves across the south-central states. ...Northeast TX/eastern OK to the Mid-South... Despite the neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights, a difluent upper flow regime coupled with robust boundary-layer heating along/ahead of an initially slow-moving dryline/cold front should foster scattered early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development from the Ozarks across eastern OK. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely contain supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Upscale growth into multiple linear clusters is expected in the late afternoon to early evening as convection becomes increasingly widespread. Still, semi-discrete convection should develop ahead of this activity within a modest low-level warm-advection regime. While low-level south-southwesterlies should not be uniform, and perhaps not overly strong across the warm sector, they should also strengthen somewhat into the early evening. This setup should foster an uptick in tornado potential as convection spreads across southeast OK to western/northern AR. In time, increasing alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with the expected MCS orientation should further yield a messy/complex convective mode evolution. Embedded supercells and localized bows will support sporadic occurrences for all hazards, although a general downward trend should gradually occur overnight as convection outpaces the surface-based instability plume in the TN Valley vicinity. ...Mid-MS Valley to OH... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front later this morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms, along associated outflow, to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward along the eastern periphery of the instability plume and reach the Mid to Upper OH Valley by afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms should modulate the effective frontal zone for potential mid to late afternoon redevelopment from the Mid-MS Valley towards parts of IN, as well as the degree of destabilization across the region. This lowers confidence in what otherwise appears to be a conditionally favorable setup for supercell clusters. The northeast extension of a steep mid-level lapse-rate plume, coupled with substantial deep-layer shear and hodograph enlargement, will favor risks for a few tornadoes and large to very large hail. For this cycle, have expanded the cat 2-SLGT risk substantially eastward with increased extent of the 5% tornado and sig severe hail areas. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of the south-central states into the Midwest. The most likely corridor for severe to occur is from southeast Oklahoma into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A cutoff mid/upper low will evolve from the Great Basin into southern CA by early Friday, while a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the central Great Plains gradually shifts towards the southern Great Lakes. Neutral to weak mid-level height rises should occur between these two waves across the south-central states. ...Northeast TX/eastern OK to the Mid-South... Despite the neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights, a difluent upper flow regime coupled with robust boundary-layer heating along/ahead of an initially slow-moving dryline/cold front should foster scattered early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development from the Ozarks across eastern OK. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely contain supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Upscale growth into multiple linear clusters is expected in the late afternoon to early evening as convection becomes increasingly widespread. Still, semi-discrete convection should develop ahead of this activity within a modest low-level warm-advection regime. While low-level south-southwesterlies should not be uniform, and perhaps not overly strong across the warm sector, they should also strengthen somewhat into the early evening. This setup should foster an uptick in tornado potential as convection spreads across southeast OK to western/northern AR. In time, increasing alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with the expected MCS orientation should further yield a messy/complex convective mode evolution. Embedded supercells and localized bows will support sporadic occurrences for all hazards, although a general downward trend should gradually occur overnight as convection outpaces the surface-based instability plume in the TN Valley vicinity. ...Mid-MS Valley to OH... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front later this morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms, along associated outflow, to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward along the eastern periphery of the instability plume and reach the Mid to Upper OH Valley by afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms should modulate the effective frontal zone for potential mid to late afternoon redevelopment from the Mid-MS Valley towards parts of IN, as well as the degree of destabilization across the region. This lowers confidence in what otherwise appears to be a conditionally favorable setup for supercell clusters. The northeast extension of a steep mid-level lapse-rate plume, coupled with substantial deep-layer shear and hodograph enlargement, will favor risks for a few tornadoes and large to very large hail. For this cycle, have expanded the cat 2-SLGT risk substantially eastward with increased extent of the 5% tornado and sig severe hail areas. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK TO SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of the south-central states into the Midwest. The most likely corridor for severe to occur is from southeast Oklahoma into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A cutoff mid/upper low will evolve from the Great Basin into southern CA by early Friday, while a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the central Great Plains gradually shifts towards the southern Great Lakes. Neutral to weak mid-level height rises should occur between these two waves across the south-central states. ...Northeast TX/eastern OK to the Mid-South... Despite the neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights, a difluent upper flow regime coupled with robust boundary-layer heating along/ahead of an initially slow-moving dryline/cold front should foster scattered early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development from the Ozarks across eastern OK. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely contain supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Upscale growth into multiple linear clusters is expected in the late afternoon to early evening as convection becomes increasingly widespread. Still, semi-discrete convection should develop ahead of this activity within a modest low-level warm-advection regime. While low-level south-southwesterlies should not be uniform, and perhaps not overly strong across the warm sector, they should also strengthen somewhat into the early evening. This setup should foster an uptick in tornado potential as convection spreads across southeast OK to western/northern AR. In time, increasing alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with the expected MCS orientation should further yield a messy/complex convective mode evolution. Embedded supercells and localized bows will support sporadic occurrences for all hazards, although a general downward trend should gradually occur overnight as convection outpaces the surface-based instability plume in the TN Valley vicinity. ...Mid-MS Valley to OH... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front later this morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms, along associated outflow, to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward along the eastern periphery of the instability plume and reach the Mid to Upper OH Valley by afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms should modulate the effective frontal zone for potential mid to late afternoon redevelopment from the Mid-MS Valley towards parts of IN, as well as the degree of destabilization across the region. This lowers confidence in what otherwise appears to be a conditionally favorable setup for supercell clusters. The northeast extension of a steep mid-level lapse-rate plume, coupled with substantial deep-layer shear and hodograph enlargement, will favor risks for a few tornadoes and large to very large hail. For this cycle, have expanded the cat 2-SLGT risk substantially eastward with increased extent of the 5% tornado and sig severe hail areas. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/14/2024 Read more