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MD 0230 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of north-central TX and central/eastern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141546Z - 141745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...An increasing threat for very large (2-4 inch) hail, severe/damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will necessitate watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Cu is deepening late this morning across western north into north-central TX and central OK along a surface trough/dryline feature. A large reservoir of buoyancy is already present across this region per area 12Z soundings, with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE based on 15Z mesoanalysis. Continued daytime heating will likely result in further erosion of the low-level cap, and convective initiation seems likely within an hour, or sooner (by 1630Z/1130 AM CDT), especially across north-central TX into south-central OK. Very large hail of 2-4 inches in diameter will likely be the main threat with supercells that develop, as steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt easily support robust mid-level updraft rotation and intensity. The tornado threat is less clear, especially with time this afternoon as the low-level jet across this region is forecast to gradually veer and weaken through the day. But, sufficient low-level shear currently exists to support some low-level updraft rotation and associated tornado risk. Severe/damaging winds also appear possible, especially if any small clusters can develop with time later this afternoon. Given current convective/observational trends, watch issuance will likely be needed soon. ..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33619863 35589696 36289620 36659549 36559465 35749455 34959509 33619640 33049704 33039840 33159882 33619863 Read more

WW 41 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 141450Z - 142000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 41 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of much of Indiana far northern Kentucky parts of western Ohio * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1050 AM until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms is expected to continue intensifying this morning and into this afternoon, as it moves across Indiana and vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with potential for a couple of brief tornadoes associated with stronger cells within the broader line of storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Muncie IN to 50 miles south of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...WW 40... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Goss Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more