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WW 112 SEVERE TSTM NE 152205Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected this evening across central Nebraska. Large hail will be the main threat (potentially up to 2.5 inches in diameter), though isolated damaging winds of 60-70 mph and a tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Valentine NE to 50 miles west of Kearney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...WW 110...WW 111... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 20025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-069-081-083- 089-097-101-105-119-123-135-137-141-145-147-151-159-163-165-167- 175-179-183-185-195-160440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN JEWELL KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MEADE MITCHELL NESS NORTON OSBORNE PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT RICE ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SEWARD SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD TREGO NEC001-019-047-061-065-073-079-083-099-137-181-160440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0450 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0450 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0907 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...eastern Nebraska amd adjacent portions of the Missouri Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160207Z - 160430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An increase in generally weak thunderstorm activity is ongoing. While there is some uncertainty, the risk for severe weather still appears limited until late tonight. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant mid-level trough emerging from the Southwest, a developing area of mid-level warm advection is becoming focused across the northeastern Kansas/eastern Nebraska vicinity of the middle Missouri Valley. Based on radar, and the 16/00Z sounding from Topeka, associated lift and moistening are contributing to destabilization supportive of an ongoing increase in convective development, which is rooted above the inversion associated with a prominent elevated mixed-layer. Below the capping inversion, boundary-layer moistening, within a corridor to the west of the Missouri River, has contributed to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. And, in the presence of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer shear, the environment has become conditionally favorable for boundary-layer based supercells. However, until the leading edge of mid-level cooling approaching from the southwest begins to overspread the region later tonight, the boundary-layer instability and stronger convective potential may remain unrealized. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41929840 41409626 39859488 39369553 40009737 40399786 41679892 41929840 Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-047-063-071-073-075-091-103-111-113-115- 117-149-161-163-171-175-160440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CDR TO 20 W RAP TO 25 NW 9V9. PARTS OF REMAING VALID PORTION OF WATCH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AN HOUR. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-071-075-085-095-102-103-121-123-160400- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CDR TO 20 W RAP TO 25 NW 9V9. PARTS OF REMAING VALID PORTION OF WATCH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AN HOUR. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-071-075-085-095-102-103-121-123-160400- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CDR TO 20 W RAP TO 25 NW 9V9. PARTS OF REMAING VALID PORTION OF WATCH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AN HOUR. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-071-075-085-095-102-103-121-123-160400- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CDR TO 20 W RAP TO 25 NW 9V9. PARTS OF REMAING VALID PORTION OF WATCH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AN HOUR. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-071-075-085-095-102-103-121-123-160400- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CDR TO 20 W RAP TO 25 NW 9V9. PARTS OF REMAING VALID PORTION OF WATCH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AN HOUR. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-071-075-085-095-102-103-121-123-160400- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CDR TO 20 W RAP TO 25 NW 9V9. PARTS OF REMAING VALID PORTION OF WATCH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED AN HOUR. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-047-071-075-085-095-102-103-121-123-160400- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 111 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 152040Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Nebraska Western and Southern South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon through the evening from near the Black Hills east-southeastward into portions of the northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota. The stronger updrafts that develop will probably evolve into supercells. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe hazards with the stronger storms through the mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Rapid City SD to 40 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 109...WW 110... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0448 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of western/central Kansas into south central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160013Z - 160245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development and intensification appears probable at some point this evening, most likely by 10 PM-Midnight, but perhaps an hour or two earlier. Once storms form, a few supercells are likely posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes, a couple of which could become strong. Trends are closely being monitored for a watch issuance, which seems likely at some point, though timing remains a bit unclear. DISCUSSION...A significant mid-level trough and embedded low are in the process of overspreading the the southern Rockies, with the leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls beginning to impact the high plains from the Texas Panhandle through the Black Hills vicinity. As intensifying southwesterly mid-level flow (in excess of 90 kt around 500 mb) noses across the Texas Panhandle vicinity through 02-04Z, strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent likely will increasingly interact with a retreating dryline across western Kansas. As boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dew points increasing as high as the lower/mid 60s, advects westward beneath steepening lapse rates aided by cooling aloft, forecast soundings suggest mixed-layer CAPE may increase in excess of 2000 J/kg within at least a narrow corridor. By mid to late evening, it appears that this will roughly become focused along an axis from near Dodge City KS into areas west of Kearney NE. Some increase in high based convective development is already evident to the west of the dryline across the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas. While guidance has generally been suggestive that more substantive convective development and thunderstorm initiation may not commence until closer to the 03-05Z time frame, it is not certain that this will not occur sooner. Of primary concern, once storms initiate, intensification may be rapid and include at least one or two supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes, as boundary-layer moistening and destabilization coincide with enlarging clockwise-curved hodographs beneath southerly 850 mb flow strengthening in excess of 50 kt. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37830081 39880027 40579936 39959859 37869899 37019987 37090065 37830081 Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-047-063-071-073-075-091-103-111-113-115- 117-149-161-163-171-175-160340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW CDR TO 50 W RAP TO 60 E GCC. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-075-081-085-093-095-102-103-121-123- 160340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0449 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111...112... FOR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...southwestern South Dakota into north central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...112... Valid 160100Z - 160230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111, 112 continues. SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorm development probably will weaken while spreading toward northwestern/north central South Dakota, with renewed thunderstorm development, including potential for a few supercells, north of North Platte toward the Mullen vicinity through 9-10 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Beneath a focused area of divergent upper flow, downstream of the mid-level low migrating northeast of the Four Corners, thunderstorms have become numerous within a corridor of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. This appears to be gradually spreading to the north of the corridor of the better boundary-layer moisture wrapping toward an initial surface low center over the Nebraska Panhandle. As this continues, this initial thunderstorm activity seems likely to weaken as it ingests drier and more stable air. However, the environment remains favorable for renewed strong to severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, within a corridor northeast of North Platte toward Mullen NE, which will tend to move northward/northeastward through late evening. ..Kerr.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44360356 44190177 43400007 42769935 41669958 41600111 42750193 43150265 43800381 43790378 44360356 Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0113 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0113 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK OVER THE PLAINS...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Great Plains tonight. Several tornadoes, perhaps strong, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible. Scattered severe gusts will linger this evening across portions of the middle Atlantic. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts moistening at midlevels across southwestern NE/western KS into the eastern OK Panhandle. This is likely the leading edge of large-scale ascent that is spreading into the central Plains. Over the last hour or so, boundary-layer cu have gradually deepened along the dryline and lightning may soon develop with strengthening updrafts. Supercells are expected to evolve along this corridor soon and subsequent movement downstream into the central Plains is anticipated, in line with 20z outlook. Environmental shear/buoyancy favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Farther south across the TX South Plains, strong surface heating has contributed to dry adiabatic surface-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from MAF supports this and surface-6km bulk shear is also around 60kt. Earlier thunderstorm activity that evolved over northwest TX has struggled to organize, but agitated boundary-layer cu might organize along the dryline between LBB-ABI. Increasing large-scale ascent could encourage upscale growth over the next few hours. Across the middle Atlantic, a narrow corridor of instability has yet to be overturned across southeastern VA, immediately ahead of convection that is sagging into this region. 00z soundings from GSO/MHX do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy with seasonally low PWs farther south. Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, continues for the next few hours with convection has it settles south toward the VA/NC border. Otherwise, overall severe risk appears to be gradually lowering. ..Darrow.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK OVER THE PLAINS...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Great Plains tonight. Several tornadoes, perhaps strong, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible. Scattered severe gusts will linger this evening across portions of the middle Atlantic. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts moistening at midlevels across southwestern NE/western KS into the eastern OK Panhandle. This is likely the leading edge of large-scale ascent that is spreading into the central Plains. Over the last hour or so, boundary-layer cu have gradually deepened along the dryline and lightning may soon develop with strengthening updrafts. Supercells are expected to evolve along this corridor soon and subsequent movement downstream into the central Plains is anticipated, in line with 20z outlook. Environmental shear/buoyancy favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Farther south across the TX South Plains, strong surface heating has contributed to dry adiabatic surface-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from MAF supports this and surface-6km bulk shear is also around 60kt. Earlier thunderstorm activity that evolved over northwest TX has struggled to organize, but agitated boundary-layer cu might organize along the dryline between LBB-ABI. Increasing large-scale ascent could encourage upscale growth over the next few hours. Across the middle Atlantic, a narrow corridor of instability has yet to be overturned across southeastern VA, immediately ahead of convection that is sagging into this region. 00z soundings from GSO/MHX do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy with seasonally low PWs farther south. Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, continues for the next few hours with convection has it settles south toward the VA/NC border. Otherwise, overall severe risk appears to be gradually lowering. ..Darrow.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK OVER THE PLAINS...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Great Plains tonight. Several tornadoes, perhaps strong, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible. Scattered severe gusts will linger this evening across portions of the middle Atlantic. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts moistening at midlevels across southwestern NE/western KS into the eastern OK Panhandle. This is likely the leading edge of large-scale ascent that is spreading into the central Plains. Over the last hour or so, boundary-layer cu have gradually deepened along the dryline and lightning may soon develop with strengthening updrafts. Supercells are expected to evolve along this corridor soon and subsequent movement downstream into the central Plains is anticipated, in line with 20z outlook. Environmental shear/buoyancy favor very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Farther south across the TX South Plains, strong surface heating has contributed to dry adiabatic surface-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from MAF supports this and surface-6km bulk shear is also around 60kt. Earlier thunderstorm activity that evolved over northwest TX has struggled to organize, but agitated boundary-layer cu might organize along the dryline between LBB-ABI. Increasing large-scale ascent could encourage upscale growth over the next few hours. Across the middle Atlantic, a narrow corridor of instability has yet to be overturned across southeastern VA, immediately ahead of convection that is sagging into this region. 00z soundings from GSO/MHX do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy with seasonally low PWs farther south. Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, continues for the next few hours with convection has it settles south toward the VA/NC border. Otherwise, overall severe risk appears to be gradually lowering. ..Darrow.. 04/16/2024 Read more