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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S MIE TO 20 ENE MIE TO 40 WSW FDY TO 30 S JXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC041-047-135-161-177-171940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN RANDOLPH UNION WAYNE OHC003-005-011-017-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-045-047-049- 051-057-063-065-069-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-101-103-107- 109-113-117-123-129-135-137-139-143-147-149-159-165-169-173-175- 171940- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ASHLAND AUGLAIZE BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DARKE DELAWARE ERIE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HANCOCK Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TOL TO 5 ESE LAN TO 40 WNW MBS. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC017-049-063-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-151-155-157- 161-163-171940- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY GENESEE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-171940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MIE TO 20 NNW MIE TO 40 SW JXN. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-033-035-041-047-059-065-075-095-135-139-151-161- 177-179-171840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD DE KALB DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN HANCOCK HENRY JAY MADISON RANDOLPH RUSH STEUBEN UNION WAYNE WELLS OHC003-005-011-017-021-023-027-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047- 049-051-057-063-065-069-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-101-103- 107-109-113-117-123-125-129-135-137-139-143-147-149-159-161-165- 169-171-173-175-171840- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ASHLAND AUGLAIZE BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE AZO TO 20 ESE GRR TO 35 N GRR. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC017-023-025-037-045-049-057-059-063-065-067-073-075-087-091- 093-099-111-115-117-125-145-147-151-155-157-161-163-171840- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY BRANCH CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GENESEE GRATIOT HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE MONTCALM OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-171840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

MD 0471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IN INTO CENTRAL OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0471 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern IN into central OH Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 171550Z - 171715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase over the next 1-2 hours across parts of eastern Indiana into western Ohio. All severe hazards will be possible and a tornado watch will likely be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Heating into the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the low 60s is resulting in modest instability (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support organized convection, with supercells and some small line segments possible. Damaging gusts to 65 mph and large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with this activity. Additionally, some backing of low-level flow is possible, especially into parts of Ohio this afternoon. Forecast and regional VWP data indicates enlarged low-level hodographs. Steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing 0-3 km MLCAPE with time amid favorable low-level shear will support tornado potential in addition to the wind/hail risk. A tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 41748587 41768290 41508183 40408183 39358238 39058317 39298474 39768561 40508601 41078602 41748587 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery continues to show a negatively tilted upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Surface low associated with this trough is currently over northeast WI. An occluded front extends southwestward from this low to a triple point in the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. From this triple point, a warm front extends east-southeastward across southern Lower MI into northeast OH and a cold front extends south-southwestward across western IN and southern IL. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the OH Valley and Lower MI today and tonight. This cold front then becomes stationary as it becomes more east-west orientated over AR before transitioning to a warm front OK. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... As mentioned in recently issued MCDs #469 and #470, the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing along and ahead of the cold front are expected to gradually intensify as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Stronger forcing for ascent is anticipated across Lower MI, which will favor quicker upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. As such, primary severe risk over Lower MI is expected to be damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph. Farther south, less forcing for ascent and generally modest buoyancy should favor less storm coverage than areas farther north, with a more cellular storm mode anticipated as well. This region will be displaced north of the stronger upper-level flow, but the enhanced mid-level flow in place should still be sufficient for updraft organization and the potential for a few supercells. Primary risk with these storms will be hail around 1" and damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph, but low-level flow is expected to be strong enough to support some tornado potential as well. Continued development along and ahead of the front could lead foster a transition to a more linear mode with eastern extent this evening. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will still be possible. ...Eastern KS into the Mid/Lower MO Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening in central NE. Expectation is for these storms to be elevated, but some hail is possible. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample buoyancy, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... Across the Mid-Atlantic, filtered daytime heating will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, resulting in modest buoyancy this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may move into the region off the higher terrain, with occasionally damaging gusts possible. Given the limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Texas Hill Country into Northwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along the dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail, but the threat currently appears too uncertain to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more