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WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW LUK TO 25 N DAY TO 20 SE FDY TO 20 E TOL TO 25 SSE ARB. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-017-021-023-027-033-035-041-043-045-047-049-057-065-075- 077-083-089-091-093-097-101-103-109-113-117-123-129-135-139-143- 147-149-159-165-169-175-172040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DELAWARE ERIE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HARDIN HOLMES HURON KNOX LICKING LOGAN LORAIN MADISON MARION MEDINA MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORROW OTTAWA PICKAWAY PREBLE RICHLAND SANDUSKY SENECA SHELBY UNION WARREN WAYNE WYANDOT LEZ142-143-144-145-146-172040- CW Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE TOL TO 25 S FNT TO 20 SE MBS TO 15 NNE MBS. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC049-063-087-099-115-125-147-151-157-163-172040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GENESEE HURON LAPEER MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-172040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the current forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S MIE TO 20 ENE MIE TO 40 WSW FDY TO 30 S JXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC041-047-135-161-177-171940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN RANDOLPH UNION WAYNE OHC003-005-011-017-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-045-047-049- 051-057-063-065-069-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-101-103-107- 109-113-117-123-129-135-137-139-143-147-149-159-165-169-173-175- 171940- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ASHLAND AUGLAIZE BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DARKE DELAWARE ERIE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HANCOCK Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TOL TO 5 ESE LAN TO 40 WNW MBS. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC017-049-063-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-151-155-157- 161-163-171940- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY GENESEE HURON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-171940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MIE TO 20 NNW MIE TO 40 SW JXN. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-033-035-041-047-059-065-075-095-135-139-151-161- 177-179-171840- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD DE KALB DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN HANCOCK HENRY JAY MADISON RANDOLPH RUSH STEUBEN UNION WAYNE WELLS OHC003-005-011-017-021-023-027-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047- 049-051-057-063-065-069-075-077-083-089-091-093-095-097-101-103- 107-109-113-117-123-125-129-135-137-139-143-147-149-159-161-165- 169-171-173-175-171840- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ASHLAND AUGLAIZE BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLINTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA Read more

WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE AZO TO 20 ESE GRR TO 35 N GRR. ..LEITMAN..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 121 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC017-023-025-037-045-049-057-059-063-065-067-073-075-087-091- 093-099-111-115-117-125-145-147-151-155-157-161-163-171840- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY BRANCH CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GENESEE GRATIOT HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE MONTCALM OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-171840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of several damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, are likely tomorrow (Thursday) from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday) as a mid-level trough traverses the northern Plains. In response, a gradually weakening surface low will move from the central Plains toward the OH Valley as a surface cold front sags southward from the OH Valley to central TX through the day. Ample low-level moisture, overspread by cooler temperatures aloft, along with adequate deep-layer vertical wind shear, will precede the surface cold front and support a risk for severe thunderstorms by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will initiate off of the cold front by afternoon from the OH Valley into TX, with all severe hazards possible. ...MO into portions of the OH Valley... A surface low will be traversing central MO/IL during the late morning/afternoon hours, with thunderstorm development likely underway along the cold front at the start of the period. As the surface low continues to drift northeast, with the cold front drifting southeast, diurnal heating will destabilize the warm sector over the mid MS Valley, where an increase in convective coverage and intensity is expected. Here, surface temperatures will peak into the upper 70s to low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deepening/mixing boundary layer, boosting SBCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but modest mid-level flow and associated speed/directional shear will support low-level hodographs of modest curvature and limited mid-level elongation. This shear/buoyancy profile will support multicells (accompanied by wind and hail) rapidly growing upscale into a mature MCS by afternoon. Given a preceding mixed boundary layer, the MCS should efficiently produce damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category 3/Enhanced risk probabilities. Given modest low-level hodograph curvature, embedded mesovortices may develop near the apex of any bowing segments, perhaps accompanied by a QLCS tornado risk. ...Portions of northern into central TX... Robust thunderstorm development should take place along/ahead of the southeastward-sagging cold front by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a well-mixed boundary layer, with 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE expected to precede the storms given steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Multicell thunderstorms, accompanied by a severe hail/wind risk, are expected given 30 kts of effective bulk shear and short hodographs over northern TX. Farther southwest into central TX though, locally stronger mid-level flow may support longer mid-level hodographs and 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. These steeper lapse rates should result in deep, wide CAPE profiles, with a couple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible, especially if more persistent updrafts can develop. ..Squitieri.. 04/17/2024 Read more