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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

WW 0118 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0118 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0117 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0117 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-039-051-053-117-121-123-125-135-159-173-175-179- 181-185-161740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE MOC001-003-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-089- 095-101-107-115-117-121-129-147-159-171-175-177-195-197-211-227- 161740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON HOWARD Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-039-051-053-117-121-123-125-135-159-173-175-179- 181-185-161740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE MOC001-003-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-089- 095-101-107-115-117-121-129-147-159-171-175-177-195-197-211-227- 161740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDREW CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON HOWARD Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 04/16/2024 Read more