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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE STJ TO 35 NW CDJ TO 20 NW LWD TO 45 SE DNS. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-007-013-015-017-023-033-039-049-051-053-069-075-079-083- 099-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-169-171-175-179-181-185- 197-161940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY TAMA UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WRIGHT MOC001-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-079-081-089-095-101- 107-115-117-121-129-159-171-175-177-195-197-211-161940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0458 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHEAST IA AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...central and northeast MO into southeast IA and far west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161604Z - 161830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail risk may persist for a couple of hours across central Missouri. With time, severe potential is expected to increase from northeast Missouri into southeast Iowa. A watch will likely be needed in the next few hours, but timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection developing across central Missouri may initially pose a marginally severe hail risk over the next 1-2 hours. Moderate to strong MLCINH is still apparent from central MO into southeast IA late this morning, stronger heating is underway amid broken cloudiness. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s F amid low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in modest destabilization. With continued heating and eastward progression of large-scale ascent impinging on the area by early afternoon, capping should sufficiently erode such that severe potential will gradually increase over the next few hours. Quite a bit of uncertainty still exists in the exact evolution of storms given areas of ongoing convection and cloud cover. Additionally, more than one round of storms appears possible for parts of the region. Altogether, this is resulting in uncertainty in timing of watch issuance. Trends will continue to be monitored for watch issuance within the next few hours. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 38239256 38559261 39409252 41329215 41339161 41139124 40619112 39819118 38689150 38259165 38039201 38039233 38119243 38239256 Read more

MD 0459 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...western Iowa...and far southeastern South Dakota. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161643Z - 161815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Skies have cleared across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa over the last hour with rapid destabilization underway. SPC mesoanalysis shows around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the region which may increase to around 1500 J/kg within the next 1 to 2 hours. However, the dry slot is punching into this area which will dry the atmosphere from the south. The window for sufficient instability will therefore be somewhat narrow. However, rapidly cooling temperatures aloft and the moderate instability should support at least some hail and tornado threat this afternoon. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41389703 41489762 41619772 41879767 42219765 42459745 42959692 43339619 43409527 43249467 42199455 41339499 41339607 41389703 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more