Aggregator

WW 0119 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0119 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0117 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-015-017-057-067-071-073-085-095-109-123-125-131- 137-143-149-155-161-169-171-175-187-195-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON MERCER MORGAN PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK WARREN WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-037-043-045-055-057-061-065-067-087-095-097-101- 103-105-107-111-113-115-139-163-177-183-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE Read more

WW 0117 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-015-017-057-067-071-073-085-095-109-123-125-131- 137-143-149-155-161-169-171-175-187-195-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON MERCER MORGAN PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK WARREN WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-037-043-045-055-057-061-065-067-087-095-097-101- 103-105-107-111-113-115-139-163-177-183-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more

WW 116 TORNADO IA MO 161520Z - 162300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Western and Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1020 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will likely continue to intensify and organize, including supercells, as they further develop and move northeastward across the region today, with steady destabilization into afternoon as heating occurs and cloud breaks occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Knoxville IA to 10 miles south southeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more