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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759 ..WENDT..05/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-011-019-023-053-115-122040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS VERNON TXC071-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-373-407-457-473-122040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMBERS HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WALLER GMZ430-432-122040- CW Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more