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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

MD 0762 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234... FOR FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Far Southern Mississippi...Southern Alabama...Western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234... Valid 131151Z - 131345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be possible this morning from far southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Mobile, AL shows a cluster of thunderstorms over southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, with a couple embedded strong storms. This convection is located along a northwest-to-southeast gradient of instability, and appears to be elevated in nature. However, forecast soundings across the western Florida Panhandle have MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, with effective shear near 60 knots and 0-3 storm-relative helicity just above 200 m2/s2. This should support a wind-damage threat, and perhaps a potential for a brief tornado, if the cells can become more surface-based. The threat would be the greatest with cells that can move more southeastward into the stronger instability near the coast. ..Broyles.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 31368546 31668686 31748799 31608847 31418869 31028897 30758897 30558873 30378829 30178748 30048668 29868582 29918539 30178513 30658501 31148518 31368546 Read more

MD 0761 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0761 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...Southern Alabama...Western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 130939Z - 131045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat will be possible for several more hours, as a line segment moves east-southeastward from southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Jackson, MS shows an organized line segment moving east-southwestward across southern Mississippi. This line is being supported by a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, and is located along a gradient of instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor, regional WSR-88D VWPs and RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range. This should continue to be favorable for storm organization for several more hours. Wind damage will be possible along the leading edge of the line. In addition, the WSR-88 VWP at Fort Rucker, AL has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2 suggesting an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. The severe threat may increase along the leading edge of the line, if it can become more surface-based. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32218844 32208921 31878958 31538980 31198975 31018952 30238754 29968668 30128597 30528570 30968558 31488614 31898725 32188824 32218844 Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-099-129- 131-131140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC039-041-047-059-111-131-153-131140- Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-099-129- 131-131140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC039-041-047-059-111-131-153-131140- Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 13 09:37:02 UTC 2024.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Southwest/northern Mexico on D4/Thursday and through the southern Plains D5/Friday. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Severe potential with these storms remains unclear, complicated by the slow-moving, low-latitude character of the shortwave and chance for widespread precipitation. How this shortwave evolves becomes more uncertain after D5/Friday, with notable run-to-tun and model-to-model variability limiting forecast confidence. Even with this uncertainty, guidance does show relatively good consensus that shortwave ridging will follow in the wake of this system across the southern Plains this weekend before another more progressive wave ejects into the central/southern Plains early next week. The northern stream will remain fairly active during this period as well, with several shortwave troughs moving through the moderate westerly flow aloft. General expectation is that the more favorable low-level moisture will remain displace south of the first shortwave on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. There is some potential for moisture advection ahead of the next wave, but, like areas farther south, predictability after D5/Friday decreases considerably. Read more