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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...LOWER GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern Texas tonight in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Discussion... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the mid MS Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. Convection that developed in association with frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening has weakened considerably, but continues along a corridor from the upper Great Lakes, southwest across IA into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest model guidance suggests this activity will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, along with widespread convective debris. While an embedded disturbance or two may evolve from this activity, it's not entirely clear how substantial subsequent development will be given the weak environmental shear and modest instability. The greatest risk for robust updrafts will be across the southern High Plains into southern NM where strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences will be favorable for a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Another region where a few strong storms are possible is across the lower Great Lakes into New England. While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley, northeast into New England as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weakly sheared convection. Low-level shear will increase markedly during the latter half of the period across south Texas along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. This feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland well south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south TX such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some low risk for a tornado or two, especially during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...LOWER GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern Texas tonight in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Discussion... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the mid MS Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. Convection that developed in association with frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening has weakened considerably, but continues along a corridor from the upper Great Lakes, southwest across IA into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest model guidance suggests this activity will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, along with widespread convective debris. While an embedded disturbance or two may evolve from this activity, it's not entirely clear how substantial subsequent development will be given the weak environmental shear and modest instability. The greatest risk for robust updrafts will be across the southern High Plains into southern NM where strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences will be favorable for a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Another region where a few strong storms are possible is across the lower Great Lakes into New England. While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley, northeast into New England as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weakly sheared convection. Low-level shear will increase markedly during the latter half of the period across south Texas along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. This feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland well south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south TX such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some low risk for a tornado or two, especially during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...LOWER GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with storms over the southern High Plains, with a couple of strong gusts also possible from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A brief tornado or two may occur over parts of southern Texas tonight in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 1. ...Discussion... Dominant East Coast upper ridge is forecast to build west into the mid MS Valley later today as the primary belt of westerlies retreats north of the international border. This westward expansion will encourage the tropical system over the western Gulf basin to move into northeast Mexico, considerably south of the Rio Grande Valley. Convection that developed in association with frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening has weakened considerably, but continues along a corridor from the upper Great Lakes, southwest across IA into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Latest model guidance suggests this activity will be ongoing at the beginning of the period, along with widespread convective debris. While an embedded disturbance or two may evolve from this activity, it's not entirely clear how substantial subsequent development will be given the weak environmental shear and modest instability. The greatest risk for robust updrafts will be across the southern High Plains into southern NM where strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences will be favorable for a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Another region where a few strong storms are possible is across the lower Great Lakes into New England. While upper ridging will dominate this region, scattered convection will once again develop from portions of the Ohio Valley, northeast into New England as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to near 90F. Convective temperatures will be breached and thunderstorms should develop within a seasonally moist environment with PW values in excess of 1.75 inches. Gusty winds are the primary concern with this weakly sheared convection. Low-level shear will increase markedly during the latter half of the period across south Texas along the northern fringe of the western Gulf basin tropical system. This feature may evolve into a tropical cyclone before it moves inland well south of the lower Rio Grande Valley. While this system will remain at low latitudes, 850mb flow is expected to increase across south TX such that sustained updrafts will likely rotate. High PW and strong low-level shear favors some low risk for a tornado or two, especially during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/19/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190526
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Far West Texas reported above-average temperatures ranging from the upper-90s to low-100s and rainfall averaging 0.5 of an inch in some areas. Winds continued to dry out topsoil moisture, and corn and sorghum plants were beginning to show signs of stress. Watermelons and cantaloupe continued to make good progress, but weed control was an issue for all areas. Soil moisture ranged from short to adequate while rangeland conditions remained steady. Livestock ranchers were culling herds due to drought and were supplementing food and water for remaining cattle. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 18, 2024 Far West Texas reported extreme heat and isolated severe thunderstorms with daytime highs ranging in the mid- to upper-90s in the higher elevations, with highs well above 100 degrees in lower areas. Rainfall averaged between trace amounts and 1 inch. Moisture improved range, soil and planting conditions. There were reports of hail up to 2 inches in diameter and a tornado in the southern part of the district. Cotton planting progressed quickly with virtually no topsoil moisture, and growers were working through fields non-stop. Winter wheat was grazed out or baled for hay. Corn and melons with ample irrigation were coming along well. Onions were being harvested, and hay and alfalfa were growing well. Mesquite trees were blooming. Livestock were in fair condition, but food and water were still being supplemented in most areas and flies were becoming an issue. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 4, 2024 Temperatures in Far West Texas averaged over 100 degrees during the day and in the low 70s at night with some areas seeing rain. Rainfall ranged from 0.6-1 inch. There were some reports of hail, damaging some homes and vehicles, but no major damage was reported to livestock. The high winds and intense heat removed moisture from the top 2 inches of ground soil, causing dust storms that limited visibility. Cotton planting began, with Pima and upland cotton fields looking good. Winter wheat was baled for hay or grazed out by livestock, and rye was growing well. Corn and melon crops were doing well, and alfalfa was being cut and baled with some producers starting the second cut. Pecan orchards were being irrigated or prepared for irrigation, and foliar-fed zinc were being applied to trees. Pastures in some areas were beginning to green up for the first time since last year, while producers continued to give livestock feed and water in areas experiencing drought. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 21, 2024 Temperatures in Far West Texas ranged from highs in the lower 90s to lows in the mid 60s and rainfall ranged between 0.2 and 4 inches with a few areas receiving no rainfall. Some strong wind and hail were reported with some hail and flood damage reported. Weed control was becoming a bigger issue in all farm ground and a large influx of large red velvet mites have been reported. Around 75% of the cotton planted has emerged and continued to grow with some fields going in late with upland cotton. All Pima cotton should be planted by now. The pecan orchards were very good as most farmers were irrigating for the second time. The flat ground, no-till and wheat stubble has taken and spread out the moisture better. The topsoil and subsoil moisture should help improve the very poor range and pasture conditions. Straw has been baled and wheat is in the drying stage. The El Paso Valley looked very good, thanks to project irrigation water, or river water. Alfalfa production was higher than usual with oats and wheat being cut and baled by the end of this month. Range conditions saw grass returning to normal health and pastures were beginning to green up a bit more. Livestock conditions will see return of cattle to grazed areas for a second round. The working of lambs and kids was completed and livestock and wildlife continued to be fed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 7, 2024

West Central Texas was warm and humid with rainfall accumulations ranging from 0.5-3 inches. Soil conditions were good with warm-season forages growing and being cut and baled. Increasing pest problems were reported in some areas, with grasshoppers becoming a widespread issue. Cotton planting was completed with earlier planted fields doing well but later planted cotton struggling to emerge in the dry soil and high heat. Grain sorghum was progressing with most plants in the flowering stage. Some corn was impacted by hail but looked to be in fair to good condition overall. Hay season looked promising, and pecan outlooks were optimistic. Pasture conditions ranged from fair to good, but the high temperatures were causing concern for fire. Rangeland conditions were good, and grasses recovered well, but weeds were becoming a concern. Lakes and stock tanks were still rising with some stock tanks reported to be full. Livestock conditions ranged from good to excellent, but sheep and goat producers were dealing with internal parasites. Cattle were in good shape and prices remained strong. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 18, 2024 West Central Texas had from no rain to 5 inches across the district with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to low 90s. Reports of hail and wind damage included hail impacting wheat progress, with some farms reporting wind damage from storms. Despite storm damage, wheat crops ranged from good to excellent condition. In some parts of the region, wheat and oat pastures continued to mature but most would be grazed or baled for hay. In other areas, the wheat was drying down and harvest will start soon for dryland acres with low yields expected. Grain and forage sorghum planting was ongoing. Corn looked fair but needs more rain to supplement the irrigation. Pasture and rangeland conditions ranged from poor to good, with some areas improved due to recent rains. Forage, mainly cool season maturing forages, was appearing with producers managing weeds after the recent rains. Cattle continued to look good with body condition looking good on all classes. Sheep and goat producers need an aggressive parasite management program with the recent rains. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 7, 2024

Southwest Texas received rainfall ranging from 0.5-1.25 inches, which helped to replenish soil moisture, but more rainfall was needed. The dry conditions were beginning to take their toll on rangelands, pastures and row crops. Forages, native plants and wildflowers were doing well. Hay harvest was underway, but production was below normal. Crop conditions ranged from poor to good. The hot and humid conditions were reducing feed efficiency in cattle, but body conditions were good. Webworms were beginning to establish themselves in pecan trees, which could potentially pose problems for producers in the future. Livestock benefited from better rangeland conditions, but producers were still supplementing herd diets. Cattle markets were good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 18, 2024 Rainfall in Southwest Texas averaged 3-4 inches with temperatures in the 90s. There were reports of strong winds in most areas that caused minimal damage to trees and row crops. Row crop conditions looked good despite the hot temperatures and lack of moisture. Dryland corn was beginning to stunt, and warm-season grasses were beginning to seed. Bermuda grass hay fields were being cut and baled and pastures were beginning to decline due to the windy and hot temperatures. Backyard gardens were perking up from the small amount of rain and sunshine. Livestock looked good, and whitetail does were having babies and becoming more active. Cattle body conditions looked good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 4, 2024 Extreme storm conditions brought over 2.5 inches of rainfall and hail to some areas. High winds also caused some damage to agricultural operations, including downed trees and limbs. There also was some damage reported to building roofs. There was wind damage reported in corn, sorghum and cotton, particularly on the outer edges of the fields. Range and pasture conditions improved, though deep subsoil moisture remained a concern as many native pecan trees did not leaf out this year. Warmer, drier weather was predicted, and the evapotranspiration rates were expected to rise soon with higher temperatures. Wheat and oat harvests began with higher-than-normal yields reported. Cattle were grazing on pastures. Pastures continued to look good, and hay production was ongoing in some areas. Livestock diets were being supplemented and were in mostly fair condition. Whitetail deer does were starting to drop fawns, and bucks were active. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 21, 2024 Precipitation amounts across Southwest Texas ranged from none to almost 2 inches in isolated pockets. Soil moisture was lacking throughout the region and no runoff water was reported. It was cooler in some areas with overcast, high humidity and a hot week expected. The rain helped allow pasture, forage and range conditions to remain good. Both irrigated and dryland crops were improving, and corn and sorghum continued to grow, having recovered from recent hail damage. Desert termites continued to devastate parts of some areas and a heavy caterpillar presence was noticed in pecans and other trees. The early season hay baling has been noticed. Soils were retaining moisture and stock tanks have filled up to a noticeable amount. Livestock body condition scores averaged from 4-6 and producers were still cutting numbers as the region was not showing real signs of recovery. However, livestock conditions remained good. Deer and other wildlife activity increased, and young bucks were seen more frequently. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 7, 2024

Weather conditions in South Texas ranged from hot and dry to mild and humid with very little rainfall. Sorghum fields looked good with most areas reporting seeding and crops turning color. Sesame and watermelon crops looked good and were almost ready for harvest. Many producers were expected to begin sunflower harvest soon. Cotton conditions ranged from fair to good with most areas seeing bolls and early planted cotton in the flowering stages. Whiteflies and chili thrips were in cotton, and aphids were reported on some late-panted grain sorghum fields. Corn fields were in good condition with harvest underway in most areas. Pasture conditions varied from poor to fair with ranchers in some areas already selling calves at lighter weights and supplementing cattle with hay and protein. Livestock and wildlife conditions were good, and cattle prices remained strong in most areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 18, 2024 The district received rainfall ranging from zero to 4 inches with hot, humid conditions. The grain sorghum harvest started in many areas. Sudan and Bermuda grass fields were baled. Corn was a few weeks away from harvest. Sesame pods were being set, and fields looked clean of insects. Very few crop fields were being irrigated as most irrigation districts were out of water allotments. Turfgrass was being harvested. Hay was being bailed in many places, with producers in some areas gearing up for their second cutting. Fruit and vegetable producers were harvesting and moving their crop as quickly as possible. Cotton fields were flowering. Pastures were green and lush, and irrigated hay fields were in good condition in some areas with a few areas suffering from the extreme heat and dry conditions. Livestock conditions ranged from poor to good. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued in some areas with many landowners planning to thin their herds to prepare for a dry summer. Cattle prices were strong. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 4, 2024 South Texas reported very warm to hot conditions and rainfall ranging from a trace to 2 inches. There were reports of hail and straight-line winds that damaged irrigation pivots and outbuildings. Corn and grain sorghum fields were expected to be harvested earlier this year. Cotton planting continued, and planted fields were beginning to show growth. Watermelon harvest continued with drip irrigation taking place. Sesame fields were faring well. Oats were harvested, and wheat harvest was good in most areas while some activity halted due to rain. Hay producers were cutting Bermuda grass fields and should bale soon. Hay yields ranged from fair to good in most areas. Range and pasture conditions were poor to good. Livestock and wildlife conditions were poor to good with supplemental feeding occurring in most areas. Cattle were in good condition but needed supplemental feed. Some sale barns reported lower volumes with a slight decrease in feeder cattle prices while others reported strong prices. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 21, 2024 South Texas has seen mild temperatures with humid and windy conditions with rainfall averaging from dry to 2 1/2 inches in some areas. Soil conditions ranged from poor to adequate. Corn and sorghum crops in some areas continued to progress but were showing signs of moisture stress in late morning in some plants. Row crops in some areas were looking good in irrigated areas. In Hidalgo County, flea hopper pressure was reported in untreated cotton and yellow sugarcane aphid pressure was reported in grain sorghum. Citrus was being irrigated, but some orchards were in irrigation districts that were out of water. Irrigation was getting critical for most producers because of extremely low water levels in Falcon Lake. Irrigation districts and some municipalities in Cameron County were continuing to implement water usage restrictions as supplies continued to decline. Strawberries were being harvested with other spring and summer vegetables in some areas. Wheat and oat harvest has begun in most areas and cotton planting will be completed. Peanut planting started in Frio County. Producers were busy harvesting hay in some areas but other fields needed rain to finish growing. Grazer fields were still growing but were showing signs of moisture stress. Coastal Bermuda grass fields were producing good hay bales, and watermelon fields were developing in normal conditions in Maverick County. Pasture and rangeland conditions ranged from poor to fair. Beef cattle producers in most areas continued to take advantage of strong market prices as they continued to cull herds prior to summer. A slight seasonal decrease in feeder cattle was reported this week. Quail were pairing up and notable sightings were being reported. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 7, 2024

MD 1330 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... FOR OK AND FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...OK and far northern TX Panhandles into northwest OK...southwest/central/eastern KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435... Valid 190224Z - 190400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe wind/hail threat may persist through late evening. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong storms is gradually propagating southward across the central/eastern OK Panhandle, and this trend may continue (with some additional backbuilding) as a strong low-level jet remains focused across the region. While deep-layer flow/shear decreases with southward extent, moderate to strong buoyancy will support a continued risk of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts, which may slowly spread into the far northern TX Panhandle and extreme northwest OK. Farther northeast, a couple of bowing line segments that earlier developed over west-central KS appear to be weakening somewhat, though some threat for isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail may continue beyond the 03Z expiration time of WW 435. Local watch extension may be considered if short-term trends continue to support maintenance of an organized severe risk. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36860181 38049933 38479857 39129766 39349623 38849594 37799593 36659948 36340099 36590208 36860181 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW EHA TO 30 NW MHK. WW 435 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1330 ..DEAN..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-057-097-113-115-119-145-151-155-159-169- 175-185-190300- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD KIOWA MCPHERSON MARION MEADE PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 435 SEVERE TSTM KS 181940Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen along a cold front this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large hail up to around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts of 60-80 mph. The threat for severe winds may increase through the evening if one or more bowing clusters develops and spreads eastward into central Kansas. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially if any supercells can persist across southwest Kansas this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Russell KS to 35 miles east of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...WW 434... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1329 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 433... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...central/southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 433... Valid 190000Z - 190200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for strong to severe wind continues within WW433. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across Minnesota. Storm mode has largely been linear along an eastward-moving cold front. A few sub-severe clusters continue out ahead of the main line. Ahead of this line, an unstable air mass extends across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin with temperatures in the low to mid 80s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s F. Within this region, surface objective analysis shows MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Much of the deep-layer shear remains along and on the cool side of the approaching cold front. Downstream severe threat will be dependent on upscale growth and strength of any developing cold pool within the main line. A watch may be needed east of WW433 if trends show potential for storms to develop a deep cold pool, and increased potential for a damaging-wind threat. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD... LAT...LON 43719534 44529506 45559460 46169441 46929368 47319259 47259205 47199174 46679114 46229113 45669122 45139141 44859153 44279195 44019215 43779259 43529313 43509467 43539488 43719534 Read more

MD 1328 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...435... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1328 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Southwest into central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...435... Valid 182336Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434, 435 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts, hail, and a brief tornado may persist into mid evening. DISCUSSION...A frontal band of strong to severe storms from southwest into central KS has been gradually shifting eastward late this afternoon into the early evening. While some consolidation of storms has occurred, multiple embedded cells persist, which will continue to pose a threat of isolated hail. Transient low-level mesocyclones continue to be noted on radar across southwest KS, and some threat for a brief tornado could persist within the vorticity-rich environment near the front. However, a general tendency for strengthening and expanding outflows may result in severe gusts becoming an increasingly prominent hazard across the region, as noted with a recent 60 kt gust in Russell, KS. A continued tendency toward backbuilding and redevelopment may continue through the evening across southwest KS, with a southerly low-level jet expected to remain focused across that region. Farther north, there may be some tendency for gradual weakening with time later this evening from north-central into northeast KS. However, some severe threat could persist beyond the 01Z expiration time of WW 434, potentially necessitating local watch extension or new watch issuance. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37120136 38130013 38749942 39899791 39929740 39859715 39549709 39079736 38009866 37569941 37269986 37030047 37120136 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more