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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ..Wendt.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ..Wendt.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ..Wendt.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF PA/NY INTO VT/NH...WESTERN MA...NORTHWEST CT...EXTREME WESTERN ME... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. ...Northeast... A Slight Risk has been added for parts of the Northeast on Sunday, with potential for scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes during the afternoon and early evening. Guidance still varies regarding the amplitude of embedded shortwaves moving through a large-scale upper trough from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday, which in turn results in uncertainty regarding the strength/track of a related surface low. In general, potential for rather strong low/midlevel flow to overspread a moderately unstable environment remains evident across much of the Northeast. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by afternoon, both along and in advance of the cold front. Organized cells/clusters will be possible, including the potential for a few supercells. A zone of relatively backed surface winds may persist through the day from central/eastern NY into parts of NH/VT/western MA, in closer proximity to the surface warm front. Locally enhanced low-level shear/SRH and sufficient deep-layer shear will support some potential for tornadic supercells across this area. Otherwise, scattered damaging winds will be possible with both frontal and prefrontal convection across the broader region during the afternoon and evening, before an expected weakening trend by later Sunday night. ...OH/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of locally damaging wind. Some convection may spread into parts of northern MS/AL Sunday night, though the potential severity of any nocturnal convection in this area remains uncertain. ...Eastern MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough is forecast to move east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest into parts of BC/AB by Sunday evening. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this shortwave, with a cold front trailing southward into parts of MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport modest low-level moisture into parts of eastern MT, resulting in the potential for moderate destabilization. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a strong/severe storm or two across eastern MT cannot be ruled out by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. A Marginal Risk has been added for this conditional scenario. ..Dean.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF PA/NY INTO VT/NH...WESTERN MA...NORTHWEST CT...EXTREME WESTERN ME... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. ...Northeast... A Slight Risk has been added for parts of the Northeast on Sunday, with potential for scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes during the afternoon and early evening. Guidance still varies regarding the amplitude of embedded shortwaves moving through a large-scale upper trough from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday, which in turn results in uncertainty regarding the strength/track of a related surface low. In general, potential for rather strong low/midlevel flow to overspread a moderately unstable environment remains evident across much of the Northeast. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by afternoon, both along and in advance of the cold front. Organized cells/clusters will be possible, including the potential for a few supercells. A zone of relatively backed surface winds may persist through the day from central/eastern NY into parts of NH/VT/western MA, in closer proximity to the surface warm front. Locally enhanced low-level shear/SRH and sufficient deep-layer shear will support some potential for tornadic supercells across this area. Otherwise, scattered damaging winds will be possible with both frontal and prefrontal convection across the broader region during the afternoon and evening, before an expected weakening trend by later Sunday night. ...OH/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of locally damaging wind. Some convection may spread into parts of northern MS/AL Sunday night, though the potential severity of any nocturnal convection in this area remains uncertain. ...Eastern MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough is forecast to move east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest into parts of BC/AB by Sunday evening. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this shortwave, with a cold front trailing southward into parts of MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport modest low-level moisture into parts of eastern MT, resulting in the potential for moderate destabilization. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a strong/severe storm or two across eastern MT cannot be ruled out by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. A Marginal Risk has been added for this conditional scenario. ..Dean.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF PA/NY INTO VT/NH...WESTERN MA...NORTHWEST CT...EXTREME WESTERN ME... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. ...Northeast... A Slight Risk has been added for parts of the Northeast on Sunday, with potential for scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes during the afternoon and early evening. Guidance still varies regarding the amplitude of embedded shortwaves moving through a large-scale upper trough from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday, which in turn results in uncertainty regarding the strength/track of a related surface low. In general, potential for rather strong low/midlevel flow to overspread a moderately unstable environment remains evident across much of the Northeast. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by afternoon, both along and in advance of the cold front. Organized cells/clusters will be possible, including the potential for a few supercells. A zone of relatively backed surface winds may persist through the day from central/eastern NY into parts of NH/VT/western MA, in closer proximity to the surface warm front. Locally enhanced low-level shear/SRH and sufficient deep-layer shear will support some potential for tornadic supercells across this area. Otherwise, scattered damaging winds will be possible with both frontal and prefrontal convection across the broader region during the afternoon and evening, before an expected weakening trend by later Sunday night. ...OH/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of locally damaging wind. Some convection may spread into parts of northern MS/AL Sunday night, though the potential severity of any nocturnal convection in this area remains uncertain. ...Eastern MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough is forecast to move east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest into parts of BC/AB by Sunday evening. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this shortwave, with a cold front trailing southward into parts of MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport modest low-level moisture into parts of eastern MT, resulting in the potential for moderate destabilization. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a strong/severe storm or two across eastern MT cannot be ruled out by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. A Marginal Risk has been added for this conditional scenario. ..Dean.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region. One or two clusters of storms may evolve and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, but a couple of supercells posing a risk for tornadoes are possible as well. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that persistent mid/upper ridging will become increasingly suppressed across and east-southeast of the Upper Midwest later today through tonight. As flow trends broadly cyclonic across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, the slowly weakening center of this ridging is forecast to shift from the Mid South into the southern Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. It appears that one notable, but relatively low-amplitude, short wave perturbation emerging from the Great Basin will accelerate east-northeastward, then eastward, across the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes during this period, as a somewhat stronger upstream perturbation digs east-southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the upper Great Lakes region. Although there is substantive spread among the various model output concerning the evolution, the lead impulse is forecast to support modest cyclogenesis along a surface front, generally across or east-northeast of Iowa through the lower Michigan vicinity by late tonight. As this occurs, a trailing cold front likely will advance southward through portions of the central Great Plains, lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. The modifying western flank of a preceding intrusion of cooler air may be slow to shift northeast of the southern New England and Adirondacks vicinity, while a reinforcing intrusion of cool air begins to advance south of the international border into the northern U.S. Great Plains by this evening. Destabilization along and just south of all of these boundaries may provide a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Great Lakes into lower Missouri Valley vicinity... Severe weather potential remains somewhat unclear for this period due to the model discrepancies concerning the surface cyclone evolution, and the stabilizing influence of potentially considerable lingering early period convective development across the Midwest into Great Lakes region. However, a belt of 30-50+ kt southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may overspread a destabilizing environment along and south of a left-over outflow boundary across parts of eastern Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois, and the stalled frontal zone over central lower Michigan during the day. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content (including dew points near 70F) will become supportive of at least weak to moderate CAPE, in the presence of moderate to strong shear, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. This environment may become supportive of a few supercell structures accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, before increasing thunderstorm development ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front poses primarily a risk for damaging surface gusts into this evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Deep-layer wind fields and shear are likely to remain weak, but moderately large CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) may once again develop within weak surface troughing, along and southwest of the remnant surface frontal zone. It appears that this will become supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce damaging wind gusts, as mid-level heights begin to slowly fall late this afternoon into this evening. ...Northern Great Plains... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling are likely to remain north of the international border beyond peak daytime heating, but an isolated strong storm or two may advect south of the international border by this evening, accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Wendt.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region. One or two clusters of storms may evolve and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, but a couple of supercells posing a risk for tornadoes are possible as well. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that persistent mid/upper ridging will become increasingly suppressed across and east-southeast of the Upper Midwest later today through tonight. As flow trends broadly cyclonic across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, the slowly weakening center of this ridging is forecast to shift from the Mid South into the southern Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. It appears that one notable, but relatively low-amplitude, short wave perturbation emerging from the Great Basin will accelerate east-northeastward, then eastward, across the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes during this period, as a somewhat stronger upstream perturbation digs east-southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the upper Great Lakes region. Although there is substantive spread among the various model output concerning the evolution, the lead impulse is forecast to support modest cyclogenesis along a surface front, generally across or east-northeast of Iowa through the lower Michigan vicinity by late tonight. As this occurs, a trailing cold front likely will advance southward through portions of the central Great Plains, lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. The modifying western flank of a preceding intrusion of cooler air may be slow to shift northeast of the southern New England and Adirondacks vicinity, while a reinforcing intrusion of cool air begins to advance south of the international border into the northern U.S. Great Plains by this evening. Destabilization along and just south of all of these boundaries may provide a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Great Lakes into lower Missouri Valley vicinity... Severe weather potential remains somewhat unclear for this period due to the model discrepancies concerning the surface cyclone evolution, and the stabilizing influence of potentially considerable lingering early period convective development across the Midwest into Great Lakes region. However, a belt of 30-50+ kt southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may overspread a destabilizing environment along and south of a left-over outflow boundary across parts of eastern Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois, and the stalled frontal zone over central lower Michigan during the day. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content (including dew points near 70F) will become supportive of at least weak to moderate CAPE, in the presence of moderate to strong shear, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. This environment may become supportive of a few supercell structures accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, before increasing thunderstorm development ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front poses primarily a risk for damaging surface gusts into this evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Deep-layer wind fields and shear are likely to remain weak, but moderately large CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) may once again develop within weak surface troughing, along and southwest of the remnant surface frontal zone. It appears that this will become supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce damaging wind gusts, as mid-level heights begin to slowly fall late this afternoon into this evening. ...Northern Great Plains... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling are likely to remain north of the international border beyond peak daytime heating, but an isolated strong storm or two may advect south of the international border by this evening, accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Wendt.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region. One or two clusters of storms may evolve and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, but a couple of supercells posing a risk for tornadoes are possible as well. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that persistent mid/upper ridging will become increasingly suppressed across and east-southeast of the Upper Midwest later today through tonight. As flow trends broadly cyclonic across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, the slowly weakening center of this ridging is forecast to shift from the Mid South into the southern Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. It appears that one notable, but relatively low-amplitude, short wave perturbation emerging from the Great Basin will accelerate east-northeastward, then eastward, across the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes during this period, as a somewhat stronger upstream perturbation digs east-southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the upper Great Lakes region. Although there is substantive spread among the various model output concerning the evolution, the lead impulse is forecast to support modest cyclogenesis along a surface front, generally across or east-northeast of Iowa through the lower Michigan vicinity by late tonight. As this occurs, a trailing cold front likely will advance southward through portions of the central Great Plains, lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. The modifying western flank of a preceding intrusion of cooler air may be slow to shift northeast of the southern New England and Adirondacks vicinity, while a reinforcing intrusion of cool air begins to advance south of the international border into the northern U.S. Great Plains by this evening. Destabilization along and just south of all of these boundaries may provide a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Great Lakes into lower Missouri Valley vicinity... Severe weather potential remains somewhat unclear for this period due to the model discrepancies concerning the surface cyclone evolution, and the stabilizing influence of potentially considerable lingering early period convective development across the Midwest into Great Lakes region. However, a belt of 30-50+ kt southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may overspread a destabilizing environment along and south of a left-over outflow boundary across parts of eastern Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois, and the stalled frontal zone over central lower Michigan during the day. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content (including dew points near 70F) will become supportive of at least weak to moderate CAPE, in the presence of moderate to strong shear, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. This environment may become supportive of a few supercell structures accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, before increasing thunderstorm development ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front poses primarily a risk for damaging surface gusts into this evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Deep-layer wind fields and shear are likely to remain weak, but moderately large CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) may once again develop within weak surface troughing, along and southwest of the remnant surface frontal zone. It appears that this will become supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce damaging wind gusts, as mid-level heights begin to slowly fall late this afternoon into this evening. ...Northern Great Plains... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling are likely to remain north of the international border beyond peak daytime heating, but an isolated strong storm or two may advect south of the international border by this evening, accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Wendt.. 06/22/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

MD 1370 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NE and western/northern IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445... Valid 220338Z - 220445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue this evening, but downstream watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...The leading cell in a band of loosely organized convection in central/eastern NE recently produced a measured severe wind gust to 50 kt (58 mph) in Merrick County NE. A separate area of thunderstorms also remains over northern IA, along and near a front. Recent VWP trends from KOAX/KDMX have shown a gradual increase in a low-level jet, and related 0-1-km shear. Transient low-level rotation and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible in the short term with updrafts embedded within these broader areas of convection. But, isolated severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph should remain the primary threat in the short term, with around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and a minimum in MLCIN noted in the latest mesoanalysis estimates of instability across eastern NE and western/northern IA. A local extension in area and expiration time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 remains a possibility across parts of eastern NE and vicinity. But, given current expectations that the overall severe threat will become increasingly isolated with time late this evening, additional/downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41149816 41509729 43099607 43459482 43179344 41159592 40789737 41149816 Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW EAR TO 25 S BUB TO 20 WNW OLU TO 15 N OLU TO 20 NNW TQE TO 35 N SUX TO 20 WSW FRM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...GID...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-141-149-167-193-220440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC019-023-037-077-079-081-093-121-125-141-143-163-175-185- 220440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO BUTLER COLFAX GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD MERRICK NANCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY YORK Read more

WW 445 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 212030Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Central and Eastern Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along a boundary extending from southwest to northeast Nebraska and into northwest Iowa. A few supercells are possible, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two could also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of North Platte NE to 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442...WW 443...WW 444... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE IML TO 25 WSW SUX TO 20 ESE YKN TO 30 WSW FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369 ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...GID...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-193-220340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC063-105-133-220340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON NOBLES ROCK NEC011-019-041-043-047-051-057-063-073-077-079-081-085-087-093- 111-119-121-125-137-141-143-145-163-167-173-175-179-185- 220340- NE Read more

MD 1369 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445... FOR PARTS OF NE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST IA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0825 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of NE into far southeast SD...northwest IA...and far southwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445... Valid 220125Z - 220300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat continues this evening. DISCUSSION...Training cells are ongoing early this evening across south-central into eastern NE along and south of a front. The downstream 00Z sounding from OAX shows generally poor mid-level lapse rates, with a long/skinny MLCAPE profile. Still, enough low-level and deep-layer shear remains present to support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. Any thunderstorm which can remain at least semi-discrete should have some hail threat, even with the poor lapse rates aloft and associated warm mid-level temperatures. An isolated threat for severe/damaging winds may also continue, especially if thunderstorms can congeal into a small bowing cluster this evening in tandem with a gradually strengthening low-level jet. The overall tornado threat may be tempered by continued messy storm modes, although low-level shear should gradually increase this evening. Depending on convective trends, a local extension in area for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 may be warranted across parts of central/eastern NE. ..Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40850119 41829868 42139825 42749832 43089800 43539667 43809530 43719471 43079458 42569486 41539634 40529860 40020038 40030113 40310131 40850119 Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W FCL TO 30 NNW CYS TO 30 ENE CDR. WW 443 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 220300Z. ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC069-075-095-115-123-220300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LARIMER LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-220300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W FCL TO 30 NNW CYS TO 30 ENE CDR. WW 443 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 220300Z. ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC069-075-095-115-123-220300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LARIMER LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-220300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 443 SEVERE TSTM CO MT NE WY 211925Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 443 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Colorado South Central Montana Western Nebraska Panhandle Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify this afternoon across eastern Wyoming and adjacent areas, with a few supercell storms possible. Large hail is the main threat, with a few instances of damaging winds also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Sheridan WY to 30 miles south of Cheyenne WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW LAR TO 35 NW CDR. ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC069-075-095-115-123-220240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LARIMER LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC001-015-021-031-220240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY GOSHEN LARAMIE Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369 ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...GID...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-193-220240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC063-105-133-220240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON NOBLES ROCK NEC003-009-011-015-017-019-027-041-043-047-051-057-063-071-073- 077-079-081-085-087-089-093-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-137- 139-141-143-145-149-163-167-171-173-175-179-183-185-220240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more