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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z A small Elevated area was introduced across the Columbia Basin west of the Cascades in Washington. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15-20 mph (locally higher). After several days of above average temperatures and dry conditions, fuels within this region are critically dry and support risk for fire spread. Critical conditions will be possible where stronger winds do occur, though this threat remains too localized to include any areas at this time. Otherwise, the previous Elevated region from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho was expanded slightly to include more of the Snake River Plain where winds have trended upward. See previous discussion for more information on dry thunderstorm chances. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will continue to be the primary fire weather concern for Sunday across much of the western CONUS, though areas of dry/windy conditions are also probable across parts of southeast OR into southern ID. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Lift ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation is expected to overspread the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest through peak heating Sunday afternoon. A plume of 0.5-1.0 inch PWAT values currently advecting north into the Great Basin is forecast to be in place ahead of this ascent, and will support the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Dry low-level conditions and storm motions near 20 knots should support the potential for dry lightning. While convection is anticipated across a broad swath of the West, dry thunderstorm coverage may be slightly higher across portions of the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest on Sunday as compared to today/Saturday while the mid-level perturbation moves north. Latest ensemble guidance shows very low (30% or lower) probability for wetting rainfall across the delineated dry-thunderstorm risk area where ERC values are near/above the 90th percentile based on recent fuel guidance. ...Southeast Oregon into southern Idaho... Subsequent days of mid-level diabatic heat release associated with isolated to scattered thunderstorms under the upper ridge is forecast to result in a gradual de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge into the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, most model solutions depict an upper shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies out of Canada, which will support lee troughing along the northern High Plains. The combination of the eastward shift of the upper ridge and deepening surface trough should result in a broad region of around 15 mph winds across the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Thunderstorm development over the next 48 hours is not expected to appreciably modify the very warm/dry air mass currently in place, so single-digit to low-teen RH values, combined with modest gradient winds, should result in a broad swath of localized/transient elevated conditions. Elevated highlights are maintained/expanded from roughly the Harney Basin in southeast OR into the Snake River Plain of southern ID, where regional topographic effects should result in corridor of slightly stronger (15-20 mph) winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon (though this may be conditional on minimal cloud cover from developing convection). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Other more isolated strong storms are possible in northern New England, and portions of Nevada. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes are needed with the 20z update. For short term information on severe potential across portions of NV/AZ/UT, as well as across the northern High Plains, see MCDs 1593 and 1594. Otherwise, see previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Northern High Plains... Relatively fast westerly mid-level flow is present today across the northern Rockies/Plains. Several weak shortwave troughs are tracking across southern Canada and parts of MT/ND today, including one with an associated cluster of thunderstorms over southwest SK. Persistent east-southeasterly low level winds ahead of this system across eastern MT will likely allow it to persist through the day and intensify with afternoon heating. A combination of supercells and bowing structures are suggested by morning CAM guidance, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds tracking across northeast MT into western ND during the late afternoon and evening. Given the consistent signal in guidance for fast-moving storms, and the favorable CAPE/shear environment, have upgraded parts of this corridor to ENH risk. ...MN/WI and Vicinity... Remnant MCS and associated MCV is currently located over southeast MN. This system will track southeastward across central/southern WI through the afternoon, where strong daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will yield strong instability. Re-development of storms is possible, with a few severe/supercell storms possible - capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Later this evening, thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a weak cold front sagging into northeast ND and northern MN. These storms are depicted by most morning CAM solutions to organize into a linear MCS and spread southeastward across much of MN and northern WI overnight. This scenario would pose a risk of damaging winds and some hail in this area as well. ...Northern New England... Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form this afternoon across southern Quebec and parts of northern VT/NH/ME. Relatively strong westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the stronger cells through the afternoon. ...NV and Vicinity... Similar to the last couple of days, ample mid-level moisture is present today across parts of NV, western UT, and northwest AZ. Hot surface conditions and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield widespread inverted-v profiles. Model guidance suggests scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms, with sufficient winds aloft to promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Other more isolated strong storms are possible in northern New England, and portions of Nevada. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes are needed with the 20z update. For short term information on severe potential across portions of NV/AZ/UT, as well as across the northern High Plains, see MCDs 1593 and 1594. Otherwise, see previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Northern High Plains... Relatively fast westerly mid-level flow is present today across the northern Rockies/Plains. Several weak shortwave troughs are tracking across southern Canada and parts of MT/ND today, including one with an associated cluster of thunderstorms over southwest SK. Persistent east-southeasterly low level winds ahead of this system across eastern MT will likely allow it to persist through the day and intensify with afternoon heating. A combination of supercells and bowing structures are suggested by morning CAM guidance, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds tracking across northeast MT into western ND during the late afternoon and evening. Given the consistent signal in guidance for fast-moving storms, and the favorable CAPE/shear environment, have upgraded parts of this corridor to ENH risk. ...MN/WI and Vicinity... Remnant MCS and associated MCV is currently located over southeast MN. This system will track southeastward across central/southern WI through the afternoon, where strong daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will yield strong instability. Re-development of storms is possible, with a few severe/supercell storms possible - capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Later this evening, thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a weak cold front sagging into northeast ND and northern MN. These storms are depicted by most morning CAM solutions to organize into a linear MCS and spread southeastward across much of MN and northern WI overnight. This scenario would pose a risk of damaging winds and some hail in this area as well. ...Northern New England... Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form this afternoon across southern Quebec and parts of northern VT/NH/ME. Relatively strong westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the stronger cells through the afternoon. ...NV and Vicinity... Similar to the last couple of days, ample mid-level moisture is present today across parts of NV, western UT, and northwest AZ. Hot surface conditions and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield widespread inverted-v profiles. Model guidance suggests scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms, with sufficient winds aloft to promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Other more isolated strong storms are possible in northern New England, and portions of Nevada. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes are needed with the 20z update. For short term information on severe potential across portions of NV/AZ/UT, as well as across the northern High Plains, see MCDs 1593 and 1594. Otherwise, see previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Northern High Plains... Relatively fast westerly mid-level flow is present today across the northern Rockies/Plains. Several weak shortwave troughs are tracking across southern Canada and parts of MT/ND today, including one with an associated cluster of thunderstorms over southwest SK. Persistent east-southeasterly low level winds ahead of this system across eastern MT will likely allow it to persist through the day and intensify with afternoon heating. A combination of supercells and bowing structures are suggested by morning CAM guidance, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds tracking across northeast MT into western ND during the late afternoon and evening. Given the consistent signal in guidance for fast-moving storms, and the favorable CAPE/shear environment, have upgraded parts of this corridor to ENH risk. ...MN/WI and Vicinity... Remnant MCS and associated MCV is currently located over southeast MN. This system will track southeastward across central/southern WI through the afternoon, where strong daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will yield strong instability. Re-development of storms is possible, with a few severe/supercell storms possible - capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Later this evening, thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a weak cold front sagging into northeast ND and northern MN. These storms are depicted by most morning CAM solutions to organize into a linear MCS and spread southeastward across much of MN and northern WI overnight. This scenario would pose a risk of damaging winds and some hail in this area as well. ...Northern New England... Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form this afternoon across southern Quebec and parts of northern VT/NH/ME. Relatively strong westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the stronger cells through the afternoon. ...NV and Vicinity... Similar to the last couple of days, ample mid-level moisture is present today across parts of NV, western UT, and northwest AZ. Hot surface conditions and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield widespread inverted-v profiles. Model guidance suggests scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms, with sufficient winds aloft to promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Other more isolated strong storms are possible in northern New England, and portions of Nevada. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes are needed with the 20z update. For short term information on severe potential across portions of NV/AZ/UT, as well as across the northern High Plains, see MCDs 1593 and 1594. Otherwise, see previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Northern High Plains... Relatively fast westerly mid-level flow is present today across the northern Rockies/Plains. Several weak shortwave troughs are tracking across southern Canada and parts of MT/ND today, including one with an associated cluster of thunderstorms over southwest SK. Persistent east-southeasterly low level winds ahead of this system across eastern MT will likely allow it to persist through the day and intensify with afternoon heating. A combination of supercells and bowing structures are suggested by morning CAM guidance, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds tracking across northeast MT into western ND during the late afternoon and evening. Given the consistent signal in guidance for fast-moving storms, and the favorable CAPE/shear environment, have upgraded parts of this corridor to ENH risk. ...MN/WI and Vicinity... Remnant MCS and associated MCV is currently located over southeast MN. This system will track southeastward across central/southern WI through the afternoon, where strong daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will yield strong instability. Re-development of storms is possible, with a few severe/supercell storms possible - capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Later this evening, thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a weak cold front sagging into northeast ND and northern MN. These storms are depicted by most morning CAM solutions to organize into a linear MCS and spread southeastward across much of MN and northern WI overnight. This scenario would pose a risk of damaging winds and some hail in this area as well. ...Northern New England... Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form this afternoon across southern Quebec and parts of northern VT/NH/ME. Relatively strong westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the stronger cells through the afternoon. ...NV and Vicinity... Similar to the last couple of days, ample mid-level moisture is present today across parts of NV, western UT, and northwest AZ. Hot surface conditions and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield widespread inverted-v profiles. Model guidance suggests scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms, with sufficient winds aloft to promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Other more isolated strong storms are possible in northern New England, and portions of Nevada. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes are needed with the 20z update. For short term information on severe potential across portions of NV/AZ/UT, as well as across the northern High Plains, see MCDs 1593 and 1594. Otherwise, see previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Northern High Plains... Relatively fast westerly mid-level flow is present today across the northern Rockies/Plains. Several weak shortwave troughs are tracking across southern Canada and parts of MT/ND today, including one with an associated cluster of thunderstorms over southwest SK. Persistent east-southeasterly low level winds ahead of this system across eastern MT will likely allow it to persist through the day and intensify with afternoon heating. A combination of supercells and bowing structures are suggested by morning CAM guidance, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds tracking across northeast MT into western ND during the late afternoon and evening. Given the consistent signal in guidance for fast-moving storms, and the favorable CAPE/shear environment, have upgraded parts of this corridor to ENH risk. ...MN/WI and Vicinity... Remnant MCS and associated MCV is currently located over southeast MN. This system will track southeastward across central/southern WI through the afternoon, where strong daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will yield strong instability. Re-development of storms is possible, with a few severe/supercell storms possible - capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Later this evening, thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a weak cold front sagging into northeast ND and northern MN. These storms are depicted by most morning CAM solutions to organize into a linear MCS and spread southeastward across much of MN and northern WI overnight. This scenario would pose a risk of damaging winds and some hail in this area as well. ...Northern New England... Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form this afternoon across southern Quebec and parts of northern VT/NH/ME. Relatively strong westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the stronger cells through the afternoon. ...NV and Vicinity... Similar to the last couple of days, ample mid-level moisture is present today across parts of NV, western UT, and northwest AZ. Hot surface conditions and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield widespread inverted-v profiles. Model guidance suggests scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms, with sufficient winds aloft to promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Other more isolated strong storms are possible in northern New England, and portions of Nevada. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes are needed with the 20z update. For short term information on severe potential across portions of NV/AZ/UT, as well as across the northern High Plains, see MCDs 1593 and 1594. Otherwise, see previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Northern High Plains... Relatively fast westerly mid-level flow is present today across the northern Rockies/Plains. Several weak shortwave troughs are tracking across southern Canada and parts of MT/ND today, including one with an associated cluster of thunderstorms over southwest SK. Persistent east-southeasterly low level winds ahead of this system across eastern MT will likely allow it to persist through the day and intensify with afternoon heating. A combination of supercells and bowing structures are suggested by morning CAM guidance, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds tracking across northeast MT into western ND during the late afternoon and evening. Given the consistent signal in guidance for fast-moving storms, and the favorable CAPE/shear environment, have upgraded parts of this corridor to ENH risk. ...MN/WI and Vicinity... Remnant MCS and associated MCV is currently located over southeast MN. This system will track southeastward across central/southern WI through the afternoon, where strong daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will yield strong instability. Re-development of storms is possible, with a few severe/supercell storms possible - capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Later this evening, thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a weak cold front sagging into northeast ND and northern MN. These storms are depicted by most morning CAM solutions to organize into a linear MCS and spread southeastward across much of MN and northern WI overnight. This scenario would pose a risk of damaging winds and some hail in this area as well. ...Northern New England... Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form this afternoon across southern Quebec and parts of northern VT/NH/ME. Relatively strong westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the stronger cells through the afternoon. ...NV and Vicinity... Similar to the last couple of days, ample mid-level moisture is present today across parts of NV, western UT, and northwest AZ. Hot surface conditions and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield widespread inverted-v profiles. Model guidance suggests scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms, with sufficient winds aloft to promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Other more isolated strong storms are possible in northern New England, and portions of Nevada. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes are needed with the 20z update. For short term information on severe potential across portions of NV/AZ/UT, as well as across the northern High Plains, see MCDs 1593 and 1594. Otherwise, see previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Northern High Plains... Relatively fast westerly mid-level flow is present today across the northern Rockies/Plains. Several weak shortwave troughs are tracking across southern Canada and parts of MT/ND today, including one with an associated cluster of thunderstorms over southwest SK. Persistent east-southeasterly low level winds ahead of this system across eastern MT will likely allow it to persist through the day and intensify with afternoon heating. A combination of supercells and bowing structures are suggested by morning CAM guidance, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds tracking across northeast MT into western ND during the late afternoon and evening. Given the consistent signal in guidance for fast-moving storms, and the favorable CAPE/shear environment, have upgraded parts of this corridor to ENH risk. ...MN/WI and Vicinity... Remnant MCS and associated MCV is currently located over southeast MN. This system will track southeastward across central/southern WI through the afternoon, where strong daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will yield strong instability. Re-development of storms is possible, with a few severe/supercell storms possible - capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Later this evening, thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a weak cold front sagging into northeast ND and northern MN. These storms are depicted by most morning CAM solutions to organize into a linear MCS and spread southeastward across much of MN and northern WI overnight. This scenario would pose a risk of damaging winds and some hail in this area as well. ...Northern New England... Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form this afternoon across southern Quebec and parts of northern VT/NH/ME. Relatively strong westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the stronger cells through the afternoon. ...NV and Vicinity... Similar to the last couple of days, ample mid-level moisture is present today across parts of NV, western UT, and northwest AZ. Hot surface conditions and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield widespread inverted-v profiles. Model guidance suggests scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms, with sufficient winds aloft to promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Other more isolated strong storms are possible in northern New England, and portions of Nevada. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes are needed with the 20z update. For short term information on severe potential across portions of NV/AZ/UT, as well as across the northern High Plains, see MCDs 1593 and 1594. Otherwise, see previous discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ ...Northern High Plains... Relatively fast westerly mid-level flow is present today across the northern Rockies/Plains. Several weak shortwave troughs are tracking across southern Canada and parts of MT/ND today, including one with an associated cluster of thunderstorms over southwest SK. Persistent east-southeasterly low level winds ahead of this system across eastern MT will likely allow it to persist through the day and intensify with afternoon heating. A combination of supercells and bowing structures are suggested by morning CAM guidance, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds tracking across northeast MT into western ND during the late afternoon and evening. Given the consistent signal in guidance for fast-moving storms, and the favorable CAPE/shear environment, have upgraded parts of this corridor to ENH risk. ...MN/WI and Vicinity... Remnant MCS and associated MCV is currently located over southeast MN. This system will track southeastward across central/southern WI through the afternoon, where strong daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will yield strong instability. Re-development of storms is possible, with a few severe/supercell storms possible - capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Later this evening, thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a weak cold front sagging into northeast ND and northern MN. These storms are depicted by most morning CAM solutions to organize into a linear MCS and spread southeastward across much of MN and northern WI overnight. This scenario would pose a risk of damaging winds and some hail in this area as well. ...Northern New England... Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form this afternoon across southern Quebec and parts of northern VT/NH/ME. Relatively strong westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the stronger cells through the afternoon. ...NV and Vicinity... Similar to the last couple of days, ample mid-level moisture is present today across parts of NV, western UT, and northwest AZ. Hot surface conditions and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield widespread inverted-v profiles. Model guidance suggests scattered coverage of high-based thunderstorms, with sufficient winds aloft to promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger downdrafts. Read more