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WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0522 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE LWT TO 25 ESE SDY. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 522 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-079-109-140240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 522 SEVERE TSTM MT 132005Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 522 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Montana * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to form over north-central and northeast Montana this afternoon and track east-southeastward across the watch area. Very large hail and damaging winds are possible with the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Havre MT to 10 miles south southeast of Sidney MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. ...01z Update... Three primary corridors of strong/severe convection have evolved across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley early this evening. Early-day convective carcass that was noted over central MN has propagated downstream with the leading edge now advancing southeast across southern WI. This activity has grown upscale into an organized squall line that should progress into northern IL later this evening. Trailing flank across southeast MN should track across northeast IA. Large hail/damaging winds are expected with this convection. Second corridor of strong/severe convection currently extends from the international border, southwest to the ND/MN border. This scattered activity is expected to gradually expand in areal coverage, aided by a short-wave trough that is digging toward the upper Great Lakes. MCS may evolve which should propagate into northern/central WI late tonight. Across the northern High Plains, scattered high-based supercells have developed and are propagating southeast across eastern MT. Models continue to suggest this convection will track southeast along a frontal zone that is currently draped from northwest SD-MLS-LWT. Strong buoyancy, very steep lapse rates, and some influence of a digging short-wave trough, all favor an upward-evolving MCS that should track into SD later this evening. Very large hail could accompany early evening supercells; however, severe wind may become more common if a notable cold pool develops with the surging MCS. ..Darrow.. 07/14/2024 Read more