Aggregator

139
ABPZ20 KNHC 150509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Gavins Point Dam releases were set to provide navigation flow support at 4,500 cfs below full service at the four target locations of Sioux City, Omaha, Nebraska City, and Kansas City. The flow support season length will be a full 8-month season, ending Dec. 1 at the mouth of the Missouri River. US Army Corps of Engineers, July 9, 2025

The Cape Cod region remained in “significant” drought status while the rest of Massachusetts was in normal conditions after recent rainfall. The Islands region was in mild drought status. More rain was needed to replenish groundwater systems in parts of the state. WFXT (Boston, Mass.), June 10, 2025

MD 1672 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1672 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of central/northeastern North Dakota through north central Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150351Z - 150545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development could support increasing potential for severe hail during the next few hours, with some possibility for storms to organize and perhaps become accompanied by strong to locally severe gusts overnight. It is still not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development, rooted within forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, is underway southwest of Devils Lake, near the Carrington vicinity of central North Dakota. This is based above a relatively cool, stable boundary layer, to the north of a developing warm frontal zone arcing across east central North Dakota into north central Minnesota. Into the 06-07Z time frame, the strengthening Minnesota segment of the frontal zone is forecast to shift northward, roughly from the Brainerd through Bemidji vicinity. This is also focused along the northern periphery of a plume of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air. Although south to southwesterly low-level flow remains weak beneath modest westerly mid-level flow on the southern fringe of the westerlies, a strengthening low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) across South Dakota is forecast to nose northeastward toward the Jamestown through Grand Forks vicinity of North Dakota within the next couple of hours. As this occurs, strengthening forcing for ascent will probably become supportive of increasingly thunderstorm development, which may gradually organize in the presence of strengthening shear. Forecast soundings indicate at least a narrow corridor of sizable CAPE for elevated moist parcels along the frontal zone, providing support for the potential evolution of a few supercell structures. This probably will be accompanied by a risk for large hail. Given the elevated nature of the convection, and the presence of a stable near surface layer, the risk for strong to severe surface gusts appears low, at least initially. However, it might not be out of the question that gravity waves generated by intensifying convection could contribute to surface pressure perturbations supportive of strong surface gusts, as convection develops eastward along the frontal zone into north central Minnesota overnight. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47889956 48499704 48189362 47369365 47279653 47179951 47889956 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0512 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0512 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 40 NNE PIR AND 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 35 NNW PIR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 511 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15/03Z. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-041-065-075-085-095-107-121-123-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT DEWEY HUGHES JONES LYMAN MELLETTE POTTER TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 40 NNE PIR AND 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 35 NNW PIR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 511 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15/03Z. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-041-065-075-085-095-107-121-123-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT DEWEY HUGHES JONES LYMAN MELLETTE POTTER TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 40 NNE PIR AND 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 35 NNW PIR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 511 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15/03Z. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-041-065-075-085-095-107-121-123-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT DEWEY HUGHES JONES LYMAN MELLETTE POTTER TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 40 NNE PIR AND 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 35 NNW PIR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 511 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15/03Z. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-041-065-075-085-095-107-121-123-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT DEWEY HUGHES JONES LYMAN MELLETTE POTTER TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 40 NNE PIR AND 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 35 NNW PIR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 511 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15/03Z. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-041-065-075-085-095-107-121-123-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT DEWEY HUGHES JONES LYMAN MELLETTE POTTER TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1671 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511... FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of south central South Dakota and adjacent northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511... Valid 150050Z - 150245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511 continues. SUMMARY...As storms spread into south central South Dakota during the next couple of hours, intensities may begin to wane, but an additional strong downburst or two remains possible. DISCUSSION...A linear band of stronger thunderstorm development persists north through northeast of the Pine Ridge Reservation, along the leading edge of a conglomerate surface cold pool. This is advancing eastward into a lingering strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary-layer west of Winner northward into the Pierre vicinity. Although it is not clear that this air mass is characterized by sufficient instability to maintain vigorous thunderstorm development, it still appears conducive to an additional strong downburst or two, before convection weakens. The strong to severe gust potential could be aided by the downward transfer of momentum associated with nocturnal low-level jet strengthening as the boundary-layer begins to decouple. ..Kerr.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 43410128 43890067 44310007 43149963 43080175 43410128 Read more

WW 511 SEVERE TSTM SD 142240Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and south central South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 540 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A loosely organized cluster of storms will spread eastward from southwest into central and south central South Dakota through this evening. The storm environment will favor occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph, and possibly isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Pierre SD to 75 miles south southeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CDR TO 20 S PIR TO 35 NNW PIR. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-041-065-075-085-095-107-119-121-123-150240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT DEWEY HUGHES JONES LYMAN MELLETTE POTTER SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota. ...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT... Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds. Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front. Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated. These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL risk. ...Southeast AZ... Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest. ..Grams.. 07/15/2025 Read more